So, McCain is pulling out of Michigan, both candidates are scaling back in Missouri, and McCain is considering greater investment in Maine. Looking at the numbers that Kos posted a little while ago, all of these moves make sense for McCain, except targeting Maine. McCain was never going to win Michigan, just as he has no real chance of winning Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If anything, McCain's error is that he didn't pull out of Michigan fast enough, and hasn't followed it up by pulling out of the five additional states I listed. Here is what I would suggest for McCain:
Carpetbomb Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia with paid media, mailings, field, staff, rallies, retail politics, the works. Seriously--don't target any other states except those six, based on the reasonable assumption that if McCain wins all six of those states, he will also pick up Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and West Virginia. Supplement this narrow targeting strategy, and counter the 50 state investment by the DNC and the Obama campaign, with a high intensity national cable campaign designed to maintain national poll numbers and possibly shake another state or two loose. If the strategy works, then McCain wins the electoral college 278-260, and possibly edges Obama out in the popular vote.
Polling has consistently shown that McCain still has a reasonable shot in Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. It is very reasonable to assume that Obama won't win North Carolina if he doesn't win Virginia, that he won't win Indiana or Missouri if he doesn't win Ohio, and that he won't win West Virginia if he doesn't win both Ohio and Virginia. Because of this, and since a sweep of those states would secure him 278 electoral votes, the campaign's focus should be on Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. Those states are worth 78 electoral votes, and if McCain can win 69 of those votes, then he can force an electoral college tie. This is McCain's path to victory, not some ridiculous hope to win in states that Bush lost twice (Maine, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), or in purple states where Bush performed below his national numbers twice (Iowa and New Mexico). That just isn't going to happen. New Hampshire is only in play because McCain has spent most of the last nine years campaigning there. That exception can't be made for any other states that either Gore or Kerry won.
McCain's few remaining paths to victory go through Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. As such, it is vital that we close off that path, by putting ten electoral votes from that list out of play. That presents us with a lot of options, and McCain not very many, but it also shows that it is simply wrong to assume that Obama has this election wrapped up. There are realistic paths to victory for McCain, just not very many. |
