Obama's Lead Still Widening, Also

by: tremayne

Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 15:00

Just when you think the bump or bounce or whatever is over, the lead grows again. That's what makes me think it's not a bounce at all but leaners and undecided voters coalescing around the Democratic ticket. Here's what the tracking poll average (Gallup, Rasmussen, Hotline, R2Kos: see Quick Hits for links) shows for the last 10 days:

Today is the first time Barack Obama has reached or surpassed the 50-point mark, also. The lead is a record 8.25 points, also. McCain is also at his all-time low at 42 points, too.

As I "argued" yesterday, McCain's campaign has the look of a sinking ship. Many countered with caution. We've seen Obama take leads before and then give them up. And many of us bear the emotional scars of 2000 and 2004 and have been unwilling to get excited too early. But:

1. Gore or Kerry never had a lead like this. And certainly they never had a sustained and sizable lead like this.

2. It's October. The post-convention period is exactly when moves like this by one candidate or the other usually take place. Waffling voters are now choosing sides.

I'm not arguing that people should cease their hard work or their donating. Now is the time to go for the kill, so to speak. But I do think, with only a month left, it is time to start redirecting some effort/money to House, Senate and other local races before it is too late. With the rising Democratic tide there is an opportunity to win many races in addition to the Presidential one.


tremayne :: Obama's Lead Still Widening, Also

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Hard to accept good news (4.00 / 2)
at face value, but it's really looking like it's all over. McCain would lose even if he got all the undecideds as well as all current third-party choosers. To win, he now faces the much higher hurdle of also peeling off voters who intend to vote for Obama.

Of course we still have to make sure Obama's margin is big enough to neutralize the twin evils of GOP vote theft and the electoral college. Looks like it will be.

My only fear is that Bush does something crazy this October (0.00 / 0)
and forces some sort of national security crisis that draws voters to McCain.  Though that could backfire and create a Johnson '64 map.  

I'm not sure that would work this time. (4.00 / 2)
McCain just doesn't seem to have the credibility anymore on anything, including military actions. Plus any "security" crisis might just get voters thinking much more seriously about Palin as CIC.

[ Parent ]
I agree (4.00 / 1)
This time it would backfire on the GOP. It would be too obvious for even the least informed voter. But they are going to try to cheat again. I hope Obama and the DNC are ready for that.

All in all these polls are really good news, but the truth is, I am still planning how to get out of bed on the day after the election when McCain wins.

[ Parent ]
Except that (0.00 / 0)
a HUGE number of votes will already be in, especially out West where most vote by mail.

[ Parent ]
Just got back from the Obama rally in Newport News, VA (4.00 / 4)
By all means, let's not get cocky or give up but one great big Hell Yeahs from me to the idea that Obama's in the process of putting this away.

I think one thing that may be going on is some of Obama's time-delayed structural advantage may be slipping into the polls. It has always been assumed/argued that Obama had an enthusiasm/registration advantage and it is known that LVs become easier to measure the closer you get to the election. This could be a matter of Obama building and then holding a solid lead with his numbers growing due to LVs becoming easier and more accurate to measure (plus registration drives continuing.)

Love these numbers (0.00 / 0)
however, I won't feel really good until Obama wins Nov. 4.  McCain has been feeling the affects of a poor VP choice and the economic mess we are in.  Most of the media narrative has been negative against him, which he has deserved.  McCain has to flip the media's attention to something else and we all know what that will be.  The questions to be answered are these:  how long will the media cover Ayers, Rezko, etc., and will voters put aside their fears about the economy to care about it?

The polling numbers between the last two debates will tell the tale.  If McCain hasn't shrunk the margin by the last debate, it should be all over.  If he can shrink the polls, look for Rev. Wright to come out of the McCain campaign directly.  He'll use it if he has to and after the last debate he won't have to answer for it on national TV.  Let's hope independents and Reagan Dems won't buy the bs.        

California Proposition 8 (4.00 / 2)
But I do think, with only a month left, it is time to start redirecting some effort/money to House, Senate and other local races before it is too late. With the rising Democratic tide there is an opportunity to win many races in addition to the Presidential one.

From my local perspective I'm actually starting to get to the point where the single thing in the election that feels to me like it's most in need of help is the No On 8 campaign...

Voters are Voting (4.00 / 1)
Believe it or not. Ballots in many Colorado counties are now OUT (and more than half the electorate votes my mail). Obama could easily lock in a victory before McCain comes back (if he does) just with early absentee returns.

It is NOT early anymore. This is almost over.

yeah, as we found out in CA during the primary.... (0.00 / 0)
it matters where the polls are a month out.  a lot.

[ Parent ]
Same thing happened here (4.00 / 3)
Long, nasty, expensive primary for Mark Udall's house seat. This young-ish guy (Jared Polis, you'll hear a lot about him soon) came out of nowhere and beat the Senate Majority Leader, mostly because he spent a lot of money early and banked a huge number of votes in early voting. Turned out over 60% voted by mail.

Amazing how even seasoned politicos totally miss that phenomenon, over and over. It's how Bush won Colorado in 2004, too.

[ Parent ]
Ohio (4.00 / 1)
Ohio is still a swing state and there are 7 Congressional Races in Ohio in which Democratic Challengers Might Take Republican Seats. Helping these 7 Democrats also helps Obama and vice-versa. For example, help defeat wacky "Mean" Jean Schmidt in OH-02 by supporting Doctor Victoria Wulsin. Or help defeat Steven LaTourette (OH-14) who dumped his wife for a Washington lobbyist by supporting Vietnam vet, labor activist, nurse, and judge Bill O'Neill.

I was trying to think of a way (0.00 / 0)
you could have worked "noocular" into your post title.

Perhaps, "You Betcha: Obama Lead Going Noocular, Also!"

Yes! Please direct some attention to FL-06 (0.00 / 0)

Cunha for Congress (FL-06)

P.S. I'm not a big fan of John McCain

Keep working hard (0.00 / 0)
As Mark Crispin Miller is fond of saying, if the difference in the polls is less than 10%, expect the Republicans to try to steal it. And as pointed out on his blog yesterday (http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2008/10/little-clarity-re-michigan.html) the recent McCain decision to pull back from Michigan is reminiscent of Bush's treatment of Ohio in 2004. Why spend money and campaign in a state that you are pretty sure you can steal anyway?

You're assuming everyone is telling the truth (0.00 / 0)
Remember that lots of folks will say something different to a pollster than they actually believe -- they won't want to appear racist, for example.

If this was a 20-point lead, that'd be one thing. But I think a lot of people say one thing but do something different when they're in the booth....


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