About time (4.00 / 7)

I have been out on the trail, knocking on doors for Obama in conservative Berks County, PA, and have been heartened to see the tide turning in our favor.  

People like what they see about Barack, esp how he has handled the crisis.  I am seeing this even among older Pennsylvania Dutch types who are deeply skeptical of outsiders, under other circumstances.  Some of the undecideds are still worried about his "radical Muslim father", "terrorist friends", etc.  We, as canvassers, have had some success in patiently debunking a lot of this crap.  

McCain's new moves will push the dial in his direction a bit, but not enough to reverse the momentum we have been seeing, I believe.  

I had been wondering, along with others, why Obama hadn't brought out the Keating connection yet.  Now we know: he was saving the big guns for a final defense.  I am more and more impressed as we go along with how this campaign has been run.  

As a proud leftie, I don't drink all the Obama Kool-Aid, but we have to win first, and Obama's team is showing again and again that he knows how to do just that.

It will be up to him to put pressure on him to get behind the right agenda, once he is in office.

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by: Contrabass @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:11:06 PM CDT

Thanks for canvassing (4.00 / 2)

I haven't been out since Thursday (seems like forever ago now with the Ayers dealy). I'll be going out again on Tuesday and will purposefully be talking to undecided voters. It'll be interesting to see what the response is down here in NC.

I've gotten three people so far I believe that have mentioned either Ayers, Wright, or Barack's name as reasons they don't trust him. I think the attacks basically work on people that are looking for a reason not to vote for Barack (other than he's black), as opposed to people that are just tuning in now. So hopefully these attacks will go for this week and then fizzle out.

I wouldn't be surprised though if Obama's lead is down to about 3 points though by the end of the week.  

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by: adamterando @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:26:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Make no mistake (0.00 / 0)

the Ayers connection is the last obstacle between Obama and the White House.

I can't think of a worse association for a liberal to have, and the attack makes me worried.  I am confident, though, that the McCain people will lie about the connection around the edges, and as a result the connection will never get traction.

But I am worried.  

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by: fladem @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 01:02:53 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree (0.00 / 0)

that's why I wouldn't be surprised to see his lead weaken this week.

But then again, I think the debate should provide an uptick for Obama. Americans are really just on the side of Democrats when it comes to the economy so I don't see how McCain can win either of the two remaining debates. Plus there's the early voting factor.

30 days still feels like an eternity though doesn't it.

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by: adamterando @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 01:08:18 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Lies about Obama's connections with Tony Rezko (0.00 / 0)

McCain spokespersons will lie when they try to tie Obama to Rezko. In Mike Allen's Politico article on the KeatingEconomics.com website, Rezko is said to have "subsidized" Obama's home purchase.

The Chicago Tribune editor, Jim Warren, has said several times on MSNBC that the Rezko exaggerations and lies have been debunked, but that won't stop the McCain campaign from resurrecting them. And maybe ramping them up even more.

Obama donated to charity the contributions he'd received from Rezko and the "contribution" to Obama's home purchase involved Rezko's wife purchasing the adjacent empty lot, then selling a portion to the Obamas.

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by: Books Alive @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:45:44 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, ok, it's not a total lie... (0.00 / 0)

The sellers wanted to sell the house together with the large lot of land. Without Rezko jumping in, it would have been difficult for the Obamas to get the deal done. It's not that they profitted financially, of course, but someone else may have bought the real estate instead...

All in all, it would have been best to stay far away from the creepy guy Rezko. But hindsight is 20/20, of course. And the story is nothing compared to the Keating scandal.

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by: Gray @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:23:29 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Rezko (0.00 / 0)

doesn't worry me.

Ayers scares the hell out of me.

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by: fladem @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:29:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

At least Obama doesn't live in (0.00 / 0)

the same neighborhood as ... Ward Churchill!

I dunno. I'm not really feeling this. It's good for offering an excuse to people who already won't vote Obama, but is it good for anything else? I mean, John Kerry actually faked his war injuries, right? And lied to get his Purple Hearts, Silver Stars, and hated the troops, and stabbed us in the back Winter Soldiers Hanoi Jane windsurfing AAAAAAAAAAH!

I just don't see that this is anything new, or really that alarming.

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by: JoelN @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:56:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Keating as Response (0.00 / 0)

I like that Obama busted out with the Keating scandal, but why does it appear to be in response to McCain's use of Ayers?  The two scandals do not compare, as McCain and the Keating Five relates to the candidate's long-held stong policy preferences for deregulation and his inability to see through corrupt lobbyist flatterers, both of which loom large in todays credit debacle and the McCain campaign itself.  

Obama should have introduced the Keating scandal under any circumstances as its absolutely germane to the way we live now.  If anything, tying the Keating roll out to McCain's latest gutter tactics might seem to cheapen the very legitimate points that Obama seeks to make.  

Maybe this is a minor quibble in the grand scheme of things, but it's puzzling nevertheless.  

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by: wobbly @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:13:20 PM CDT

I think because it's meant as a distraction more than a true campaign gambit (4.00 / 6)

As someone mentioned, it will get the media talking about it and will probably force McCain to talk about it again when he wants to talk about Ayers instead. Thus, the waters are muddied and the Ayers attack is less effective. Ben Smith at politico thinks it will get a bit more air play because Obama has not brought it up before whereas the Ayers attack has been around since the primary and was brought up by McCain himself.

The Keating scandal is a little hard to follow and it was 20 years ago now. So it's hard for it to have the scandalous tone that a really big hit does. But it is effective as a diversion especially since it relates to the current crisis. It makes sense to bring it up now because it's a counterattack on Ayers and it's a counterattack that goes back to the economic crisis which has been death for McCain. So you only use it when there's a danger that the campaign narrative could shift away from the economic crisis.  

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by: adamterando @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:21:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Critical to Understanding McCain (4.00 / 3)

The issues surrounding the Keating Five and their direct correlation to the current financial crisis suggest that should be more than a distraction.  

People are aware that lobbyists representing big money interests have lobbied legislators to deregulate the banking industry, just as with the S & L scandal.  

The connections between then and now will prove more salient among the general public than many apparently believe.  McCain's connections to the last federal bailout of the banking industry and his role in creating the conditions that made it necessary are a very big deal.  Obama wisely saved it for the time when it will resonate best.

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by: wobbly @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:30:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I hope that's the case (4.00 / 2)

and I hope they can make the case that McCain obviously learned nothing from that experience because he still favors the very same policies that led to the S&L crisis.

I guess I'm just pessimistic sometimes about our short-term memories when it comes to these things. Witness how Henry 'War Criminal' Kissinger is suddenly a great statesman once again. Hell even Nixon was a regular on the news shows in the early 90s and had rehabilitated himself somewhat.

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by: adamterando @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:43:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It also helps not to be seen as the first to "go negative" (4.00 / 5)

Keating is old business that was always going to be portrayed as getting personal, the politics of destruction, etc., regardless of any relevance to current economic conditions.  There was never going to be a way around that.  

But the timing is clearly sufficient for the Obama campaign to avoid any blame for being first into the gutter.  They might even get a few positive process stories about fighting back, not allowing themselves to be Swift Boated, etc.    

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by: Haggai @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:35:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Definitely (4.00 / 1)

They've played that game very well all campaign. Always allowing the opponent to be tarred as the nasty one first so you can hit back and not have it drive up your negatives, which would be especially bad for Obama.

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by: adamterando @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:44:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Possible GOP rebuttal? (0.00 / 0)

Rep. Rahm Emanuel, a Chicago Democrat and Obama supporter, warned against McCain's strategy.

"If we are going to go down this road, you know, Barack Obama was eight years old, somehow responsible for Bill Ayers," he said. "At 58, John McCain was associating with Charles Keating."

Actually, McCain no longer had ties with Keating beyond his early 50s.  

WHY DOES RAHM EMANUEL HATE ARITHMETIC?

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by: Haggai @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:15:18 PM CDT

You get the idea (0.00 / 0)

behind Emanuel's assertion, that McCain's ties to Keating are the product of a mature, rational being, &c., &c.

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by: wobbly @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:19:35 PM CDT

Focus on McCain's Veracity/Credibility Problems (0.00 / 0)

I think that McCain's Keating problem is very real as it reinforces his Washington-insider status and reminds people of why he is not to be trusted in these turbulent economic times.  I would strongly encourage the Obama team to pursue this angle, with special emphasis on the fact that McCain was an elected Senator in his late 50s when this occurred.

I nonetheless think Obama will be most effective in combating these new McCain smears by once again making McCain's credibility, or lack thereof, the principal issue.  This is how the kindergarden sex ed. ad blew up on McCain.  The same with the Raines/Fannie Mae ad.  In those instances, the Obama camp very quickly made McCain's deceit the central issue and the media universally condemned McCain's despicable smear tactics.  The same should be done now.  

McCain's credibility is already compromised and Obama now needs to obliterate it.  Don't get cute.  Stick with the facts and incessantly point out how McCain is desperate and lying.

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by: jcpok @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:24:41 PM CDT

Genius! (4.00 / 1)

I had indigestion all weekend about the mud that McCain had planned for this week.  And then Obama comes around and beats him to the punch!  Awesome: Now the media narrative is going be whether or not McCain can survive the damage of Obama's latest attacks, especially in light of the financial crisis.  McCain is the one who will be doing the explaining and McCain will be the one feebly issuing those strongly worded condemnations of negative campaigning.  And the best part: when McCain's ads come out people will interpret them as a desperate counter-strike to divert attention from Obama's ads.  

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by: Greg Comlish @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:32:27 PM CDT

AP report on amount of oil spilled in the Gulf: 500,000 gallons (0.00 / 0)

After the "drill, drill, drill" choruses, and Congress taking the position that the regulations on drilling may be relaxed if the state votes that way, the AP report that ran on Yahoo News yesterday was a vivid reminder of the ecological dangers when a hurricane strikes.

I sent the original AP link to the Obama campaign, to make sure that they had it, with the idea that the huge adverse impact might come in handy for pushback with the drill-crazy among us. The amount of damage to the environment is unbelievable.

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by: Books Alive @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:06:33 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

And the new chant is... (0.00 / 0)

SPILL, BABY SPILL!!!

"A fantasy is not even a wish, much less an act.  There is no such thing as a culpable or shameful fantasy."  -----Lady Sally McGee

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by: mantis @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 15:21:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm less certain about this move... (0.00 / 0)

Don't get me wrong.  I think Keating is absolutely fair game.  People gave McCain a big pass on that one because he talked about it so much and said it was a big mistake, but he never actually admitted his actions, and it's always struck me as a particularly cynical reason for him to then run off on a reform campaign for the next ten years.

BUT, I'm worried that this response only muddies the waters and doesn't really get at the heart of disputing McCain's vile slanders about Ayers and every other Muslim person in Chicago that he's about to dredge up.  Yes, better to be on offense than defense, but it's also going to help distract from the economy issue where McCain is getting killed.

If the next month is about Keating Five versus Ayers instead of about the economy, McCain may still win. The key is for Obama's staff not to go overboard, to use this to blunt McCain's assault but then to resteer the focus back to the economy as sharply as they can.

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by: Siguy @ Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 23:54:29 PM CDT

Keating Five = Economy (4.00 / 2)

The analogy between then and now is about as perfect as can be asked for between two distinct moments in political history, and it's all about the economy, the poor paying for the mistakes of the rich, the role of fat cat lobbyists in writing legislation and setting the legislative agenda, and on and on.  

Moreover, Obama does not want or need to "get at the heart of disputing" what you accurately describe as "McCain's vile slanders."  We needn't get into a pissing contest with the snake McCain, it's exactly what he wants.  Point out that Obama wasn't even a teenager when Ayers was a Weatherman, and Obama's association with him extends no further than a philanthropic board on which a number of people from many walks of life and political orientations served.  

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by: wobbly @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 00:04:52 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

campaign coverage vs. electoral outcome: the idiocy of the McCain campaign (4.00 / 2)

If the next month is about Keating Five versus Ayers instead of about the economy, McCain may still win.

I'm seeing this concern a fair amount, and I have to say, I think it's fundamentally confused. The confusion is one that people in the media and blogs are both subject to: namely, that the election is "about" what the election coverage is about. So if there's a lot of coverage of some stupid Republican attack line, then that is sure to influence voters. And obviously, stuff like this will affect some voters (though I think the significance of this stuff is more as providing rationalizations for solidifying people's inchoate leanings).

But come on! Listen to what you're saying: that McCain might win because the Keating/Ayers stuff will be more important to voters' decisions than the economy! That's just bonkers. The economy is the issue of this election - it was before the financial crisis, it still is now that the bailout has passed, and it will be until November 4th.

This is why the McCain campaign is so misguided. They are subject to this same confusion of directing themselves at campaign coverage rather than the electoral outcome: they think that by controlling campaign coverage, they can control the outcome of the election. Hence their talk of "turning the page" on the economy issue - as if it were just a passing fancy of the chattering classes, and if they could just herd the talking heads over to the McCain talking points, then all would be well! Their thinking is so inane it almost makes me angry - except that it's wonderful for our side, since the idiocy of this very strategy guarantees that Obama is going to win. (I don't think I need to tell you that the Obama campaign has been focused like a laser on the electoral outcome all along.)

So, yeah. I'm really, really not worried about this Ayers crap.

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by: Chachy @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 02:17:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Equivalency (0.00 / 0)

Obviously reporters are going to be sorely tempted to equate Charles Keating with William Ayers and rail about how the campaigns are both descending into the muck.

In this case that is perfectly fine.  Republicans have benefited greatly from false equivalencies, but in this case I think it is to our advantage.  If this just makes McCain's attacks against Obama a net wash, I'm perfectly fine with that.

What nice is this spoon feeds to media to set up an equivalence to counter whatever garbage the McCain campaign produces.  All attacks will be watered down to the form of "both candidates have imperfect pasts".  We then coast to victory on the economy.

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by: Mark Matson @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 00:09:25 AM CDT

Ayers was already aired during the primary (4.00 / 2)

and it was a huge snoozefest. I could not be less worried about this. Most people haven't ever heard of him, so they first have to explain, which is never good; Obama's connection with him is extremely tenuous and came decades after Ayers was a bad guy; and furthermore -- and this is stupid and racist -- but Ayers is white, not black or Muslim, which'll make him a lot less threatening in people's eyes. I mean, there's just no way this will work. What is the McCain camp even thinking? The only thing I'm even vaguely worried about is that their stated "plans" to bring up Ayers was clever misdirection, and they're actually planning something else -- something less dumb.

There are only two associations Obama has (I know of) which are damaging to him -- Jeremiah Wright, and possibly Louis Farrakhan. Thankfully these have also been aired already during the primaries, and McCain is in a less than great position to start pounding on Wright, with Obama having rejected him and left the church already, and McCain himself having publicly condemned a state party for airing Wright ads.

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by: illissius @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 05:59:34 AM CDT

I must admit that Hillary Clinton (0.00 / 0)

is just about my favorite person, when I think about any upcoming attacks.

'Defanged' and 'inoculated' are probably too strong, but ...  

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by: JoelN @ Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:59:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Educators speak out on Obama-Ayers connection (0.00 / 0)

In regards to the Obama-Ayers connection, hundreds of educators who know Ayers personally are speaking out in his defense and in response to the media's use of this "terrorist connection".

-- http://www.supportbillayers.org

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by: crobes2 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 11:08:05 AM CDT