Opening the Day: The Dow Collapses, Anger Mounts

by: Matt Stoller

Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:03


The Dow has now dropped below 10,000 for the first time since 2004.  Last week, when I was trying to convince members to vote against the bailout, I had a conversation and the question was posed 'well what would you tell a small business owner who can't get a loan?'  I said that the bailout probably wouldn't help them, not for any economic reason but because it seemed obvious that the people planning the bailout don't actually care about a random small business somewhere.  Then last night, a few economists told me that a credit tightening is normal right before or during the initial stages of a recession as banks become more conservative.  So what I said was correct on the economics.  It's not a difficult concept, but what's interesting is how the press conflated the credit tightening prior to a recession with a run on hedge funds and investment banks.  Anyway, there you go.

  • The Palin-Biden debate attracted nearly 70 million viewers, far more than the Obama-McCain debate.  Here's Palin in 30 seconds.

    She's being mentioned as a 2012 contender.  I doubt it, she'll be impeached in Alaska first.  Astroturf group Team Sarah has launched.

  • The US Chamber of Commerce and the NFIB are going to put $400,000 against Darcy Burner, and the NRCC is already outspending the DCCC in that district.

  • Here's the raw data on what you think about the bailout.

  • McCain is still taking the weekends off.

  • Palin's in Omaha, fighting for that one electoral vote carved out by Nebraska's unique electoral system.

  • Ari Berman has a good piece on Rick Davis's lobbying ties to Russia.  At what point does this become an issue of overt disloyalty to the American public?

  • Gordon Smith and Jeff Merkley are going at it.  Smith is attacking Merkley for running up the debt after Smith himself just voted for $700 billion.

  • Republicans are whining they can't suppress the vote and intimidate in Ohio.

  • Sometimes you just gotta love Redstate beating up on Naomi Klein.

    There are plenty of bloggers who unthinkingly endorse Klein's work. That is a stain both on their critical thinking skills, and their reputations for honesty as pundits.

    The Democratic and Republican Strategist Assocation is going to begin license renewals soon.

  • Campaign Money Watch broke out the Keating last week.

  • Hillary Clinton has raised $8M for Obama.  That's a lot of money.

  • 59% of voters would vote to replace the entire Congress.

  • Voter registration trends are still favoring Democrats, quite dramatically.

  • Joe Lieberman on Palin: "She's so strong, she's so capable, she's so competent," Lieberman told the cheering crowd. Emphasizing her "faith," he added that she is someone who "with your help--and God's help--will be the next vice president of the United States." More big cheers.

  • Hank Paulson can ignore all contracting regulations.

  • House Republicans are defending deregulations.

  • Jim Marshall is running ads defending his bailout vote.

What are you reading?

Matt Stoller :: Opening the Day: The Dow Collapses, Anger Mounts

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There is nothing (4.00 / 1)
normal about bank runs heading into a recession.

We have not seen runs on commercial banks like this since the 1930's.

The bailout was necessary, but by no means sufficient to avert a deep recession.


yes (0.00 / 0)
That is true, there is nothing normal about bank runs heading into a recession, though that was a regular feature of the 19th century economy.  But credit tightening is quite normal, so these businesses aren't getting loans because of the coming recession, not the bailout.  And yet because of media misrepresentation it was their distress that led to the bailout, rather than a stimulus to deal with the recession.

[ Parent ]
I think you are out of your league (4.00 / 1)
Matt, I don't think you have the background to make the assertions you are.

Economists across the board, many of whom denounced the Paulson plan, say this is a credit problem of unparalleled proportion. This credit tightening is unusual because banks are massively over leveraged and failing.

For giggles I emailed my close friend who trades in distressed debt, who makes lots of money by helping troubled companies recapitalize and get back on their feet. And posed your assertion to him. Keep in mind too that he hates Paulson and the paulson plan, thinking it is completely moronic. Here is what I got back:

"there is no possibility that paulson is over reacting. this is NOT what happens during recessions or "normal" market downturns. the seizing up of money market funds, the massive spontaneous bankruptcies of global financial firms that normally control the show... these are once every 50-70 years types of problems. real panic hasn't even really started until very recently."

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare


[ Parent ]
um (0.00 / 0)
There IS a credit crisis, but that is NOT what is causing small businesses from getting loans from banks.  There is both a credit crisis and a recession, and it's the recession that is tightening credit on businesses.  In other words, bankers become much more cautious lending to businesses when they think the economy is going to turn down sharply.  That's what's happening.

There is also a credit crisis with regards to hedge funds, investment banks, pension funds, and corporate paper, which has to do with the quasi-legal shadow banking system.  But even if that crisis didn't exist, businesses still wouldn't be able to get loans.  That's what happens before recessions.

This is introductory economics, and it's something I do understand.  Quit the condescension, and the appeals to authority in calling me ignorant.


[ Parent ]
you are acting like a child (0.00 / 0)
all too often

[ Parent ]
really (4.00 / 1)
from one left-progressive-liberal-geek to another -- you are clearly not a troll, you are largely aligned with Matt on political and ideological questions -- so why do you feel it's good (how can it feel good?) to drop a sentence fragment insult into the dialogue?

Maybe if Matt had "started it" -- but the comment of his you're replying to is in control and too the point (not, necessarily a point you would agree with.)


[ Parent ]
His initial posting is immature (0.00 / 0)
'I told you so' 'I was right' Who cares. Frankly it is debatable if he is right or wrong but who cares. This is a hugely complicated issue with a lot of sides and a lot of disagreement . I think Matt's game is too often in the gutter or driven by testosterone or passion or anger or 'either you are with us or against us' progressive partisanship. Not helpful and boring. I am tired of it.

I would love to know what a progressive president obama could do to save/fix our economic situation but it looks like I am going to have to look elsewhere for that kind of info.


[ Parent ]
is there a auto-form you fill out? (4.00 / 1)
for dealing with anyone criticizing the fact that Dems passed the plan.

1. question credentials.

2. suggest vaguely that vast numbers of economists agree with your own point of view.

(2'. bonus points for mentioning secret insider hedge fund friend with secret name and infinite wisdom.)

3. make sure your point of view is sufficiently vague that you never actually endorse the plan you said had to have been passed.

4. defiantly miss the point of the original criticism (Stoller begins by asserting the bailout will not solve the credit problem, you... say he's stupid not to see that the credit problem is really bad?)

5. stir, lather, bake, repeat.


[ Parent ]
"The plague on savings and loan asssociations" (0.00 / 0)
"last seen in Ohio, swept into Maryland when a run on deposits at several privately insured thrifts forced Governor Harry Hughes to sign an order restricting withdrawals."
http://money.cnn.com/magazines...

Not since the 1930s, hmm?


[ Parent ]
That Palin video is great (4.00 / 1)
But I'm wondering how long until people realize "nucular" is an accepted pronunciation of "nuclear" (like Wensday is for "Wednesday" or eye earn is for "iron").

i just want to say (0.00 / 0)
I pronounce it nucular, and nobody ever called me on it until people started making a fuss about Bush.

This is one -- utterly pointless -- joke about Bush that I wish would die. It had no point except to (bizarrely!) re-enforce the GOP talking point that Bush was not some hyper-anal intellectual.

Better complaint-memes, people!


[ Parent ]
Making fun of the way others talk is childish (0.00 / 0)


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
im a kid at heart (0.00 / 0)


Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

[ Parent ]
How the hell else... (4.00 / 1)
would you pronounce "iron" or "Wednesday"???  I'm so confused.  :-(

[ Parent ]
Back in the day (0.00 / 0)
They were pronounced how they're spelled...

"Iron" was eye ron or eye run, where as "Wednesday" was pronounced wed nes day.  Another example would be comfterble for "comfortable."

They evolved to their current pronunciations by a process called metathesis, in which the phonemes in words get shifted.  It's the same exact process that caused the the word nuclear to evolve in many places to "nucular" over the past half century.


[ Parent ]
you just kind of language-nerd made my day (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
But, didn't the spoken language come before the written language? (0.00 / 0)
So, "back in the day", we spelt wyrds the way theys sounded.

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
Joe campaigning in Florida again (0.00 / 0)
With even FL slipping away from them, it will be sweet revenge if Lieberman again fails to win the state, this time for his new team.

Tim Wolfe

Where's Colin? (0.00 / 0)
I thought Powell would have weighed in by now given his need to sanitize his work during the Bush II administrations.  Not that I like the guy, mind you, merely in this political environment shot through with so much hail mary, game changing noise, his endorsement presented in the right way could help keep the focus on issues of substance.  

Didn't he say he was waiting to evaluate the VP picks?  What's the delay, or is he 1) really to big of a wimp 2) seriously believe that engaging in electoral politics somehow cheapens his standing 3) ???.  


According to Willie Brown (0.00 / 0)
He held off endorsing Obama in deference to a desperate plea from Bush.

Not sure I'm buying this.


[ Parent ]
D'ya see who's gonna (0.00 / 0)
head up the bailout till Bush leaves office?

Some 35-year-old former Goldman Sachs VP.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...

But he needs to be confirmed by the Senate.  


Kneel Cash Carry (0.00 / 0)
At least he is appropriately named, no?

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
Here's his bio (0.00 / 0)
I dunno, maybe he's brilliant, but there's nothing here to make me think he's qualified to take over a big chunk of our economy. On the contrary, he seems to be a midlevel appointee who's contributed to Bush's contribution to the housing crisis.


Neel Kashkari was sworn in as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Economics and Development on July 9, 2008. He was nominated by President Bush on November 15, 2007 and confirmed by the Senate on June 27, 2008. In this role, Mr. Kashkari is responsible for developing and executing policies for the Department to foster a more conducive investment climate for the U.S., as well as to support global economic growth.

Mr. Kashkari joined the Treasury Department in July 2006 as Senior Advisor to U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. In that role, he was responsible for developing the President's Twenty in Ten energy security plan, enhancing Treasury's engagement with India, particularly in the area of infrastructure development, and developing and executing the Department's response to the housing crisis, including the formation of the HOPE NOW Alliance, the development of the subprime fast-track loan modification plan, and Treasury's initiative to kick-start a covered bond market in the United States.

Prior to joining the Treasury Department, Mr. Kashkari was a Vice President at Goldman, Sachs & Co. in San Francisco, where he led Goldman's IT Security Investment Banking practice, advising public and private companies on mergers and acquisitions and financial transactions. Prior to his career in finance, Mr. Kashkari was a R&D Principal Investigator at TRW in Redondo Beach, California where he developed technology for NASA space science missions such as the James Webb Space Telescope.

Originally from Stow, Ohio, Mr. Kashkari graduated from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with a Bachelor's and Master's degree in Engineering. He also received an M.B.A. in Finance from the Wharton School. Mr. Kashkari and his wife reside in Maryland

http://www.treas.gov/organizat...


[ Parent ]
I guess that someone has to write the checks (0.00 / 0)
I'm glad its not Paulson, but that may be a charade.

I don't see anything in his bio that suggest he's any more qualified than anyone else.

Who is in charge of the Congressional Oversight?


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
Palin has no future in 2012 or ever (4.00 / 1)
She thinks she does, as you can see from her willingness to go off McCain's message.  

But she has about as much chance of winning the primaries as Alan Keyes or Dan Quayle.  


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


Greg Comlish asks: What about Ames? (0.00 / 0)
Ari Berman is fine, but his colleague Mark Ames is the Russia expert.  Ames is the one who broke the story of McCain's connections with corrupt oligarchs.  You should at least give him some credit.  

The "free market" (0.00 / 0)
Just wondering, since I come from a math background, but doesn't the Prisoner's Dilemma sort of completely negate the very concept of a "free market" and "free trade"?

reactions (0.00 / 0)
McCain is still taking the weekends off. He's figured out that when he campaigns he has a negative effect on his prospects. He has to do enough events to avoid corporate media noticing, but not so many as to ruin his campaign even more.

Hillary Clinton has raised $8M for Obama. That's a lot of money. I hope this is noticed by some of the "Hillary isn't doing enough" crowd.

59% of voters would vote to replace the entire Congress. And the number would probably be closer to 80% if they could replace everyone but their own representative!


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