Big Media Websites Can't Admit Obama Is Over 270

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 17:13


Here are the latest electoral projections from independent, small media electoral forecasting websites:

Election Projection: Obama 364-174
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 349, McCain 174, 15 tied
Fivethirtyeight: Obama 347.6-190.4 McCain
Pollster.com: Obama 320, McCain 158, Toss-up 60
Real Clear Politics: Obama 277, McCain 158, Toss-up 103

There are many more, but I'll stop there. The key point is that all small media election projection websites, including the Republican Election Projection and Real Clear Politics, have Obama over 270 electoral votes. This is because polls now objectively show that Obama is well over 270 electoral votes. However, none of the big, and so-called liberal, media websites show Obama over 270 right now. Every single one is even more favorable to McCain than Real Clear Politics:

MSNBC: Obama 264-174 McCain
CNN: Obama 264-174 McCain
New York Times: Obama 260--200 McCain

None of these websites can admit what is patently obvious to even Republican poll watchers right now: Obama is over 270 outside the margin of error. The inability of these big media sites to simply admit reality--reality that is evident in their own reporting about McCain playing from well behind right now--is pathetic.

Maybe they are afraid of being accused of pro-Obama bias (probably). Maybe they are just biased toward McCain (possibly). Maybe they just suck at electoral forecasting (definitely). Maybe they are invested in a close campaign (absolutely). Whatever it is, you would be well served to never, ever listen to big media for election forecasts and horserace information. They just don't have it. Stick to the small media independent websites, since we pretty only exist because the big media websites suck so bad at this stuff. So much information is publicly available now that a few nerds obsessed with poll numbers are much better sources for election information than you will every get from big media. The lack of depth in horserace coverage on major news websites is actually how I discovered the blogosphere myself back in 2002.

Update: I should have mentioned that I came up with the idea for this post after reading a comment by Chachy yesterday.

Chris Bowers :: Big Media Websites Can't Admit Obama Is Over 270

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protecting their election night advertising revenue (4.00 / 2)
Maybe they are invested in a close campaign (absolutely).

This. They want you to tune into their coverage on Nov. 4 which you might not do if the result is a foregone conclusion.  


awesome (4.00 / 1)
I was preparing to blockquote the same sentence.  This is a money interest for them... they want Obama ad money pouring into their pockets, and the best way to insure that happens is to propogate the myth that the race is razor close.

[ Parent ]
Invested (0.00 / 0)
invested in a close campaign

Yep. My bet, too.

[ Parent ]
nor should they (4.00 / 5)
in my opinion. i don't want anyone on obama's side to stay home in the mistaken belief he's already won (which he hasn't). secondly, i want the entire nation (including mccain supporters) to be shocked at the margin of victory on nov 4.


News is news (4.00 / 2)
I don't think you should try to suppress it just because it cause a problem for your candidate.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
informed viewers (0.00 / 0)
informed viewers already know the news. it's out there if you just look. no excuse in my opinion. buyer beware in a free-market capitalist society.

[ Parent ]
So, we should not expect any novel news from the M$M? (0.00 / 0)
Your original comment said, "or SHOULD they"(emphasis mine). That's where I read your wish to suppress information that you consider potentially damaging to the Obama campaign.

The M$M should, most definitely, make effort to present true, up to date, and pertinent information, should it not?

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
should or shouldn't ... (0.00 / 0)
...misses the point. In reality, nothing can suppress the truth. It's out there if you just look. Do I wish that all media presented the truth? Absolutely. But it's not necessary. And even if they did, many still wouldn't understand it (due to bias, ignorance, interference, etc) in the extreme version of free-market capitalism we live in.

Personally, I don't think much will change our current path in the US as long as people have "bread and circuses." As long as people have the dollar menu and football, very little will change. Watch the film Idiocracy.

Perhaps the looming market crash will knock some sense into the consumers of America. But I'm not holding my breath.  


[ Parent ]
OK, I see your point (0.00 / 0)
I disagree, but I understand it more than before, thanks for taking the time to explain.

P.S. I'm not being a smart ass.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
the consumers of america have plenty of sense... (0.00 / 0)
and cents.  they just have debt instead of dollars, and that's because of unionbusting.

what they don't have is internationalism or sympathy for the underclass, which might have provoked them to move more strongly and quickly against the republicans and other neoliberal technocrats / pro-rich class warriors.


[ Parent ]
For the Record (0.00 / 0)
NPR actually is currently showing a projection of 273 Obama - 174 McCain.

Their projection has a little tiny check mark next to Obama's name. (Oh, and they reach that 273 without calling Florida, Ohio or Virginia).

I dunno if NPR counts as big or small media, though...


it does count as non-commercial (4.00 / 2)
and they dont get ad revenue from the candidates.. so they can afford to be honest.

[ Parent ]
Correlation. (0.00 / 0)
That is the most interesting correlation of all. Pretty hard to explain why the only non-profit big media is able to get it right when their rich commercial cousins can't. Your free market at work again?

[ Parent ]
Some Odd Things (0.00 / 0)
NPR shows Colorado as "Leaning Dem" and Virginia as "Tossup" but Obama's lead in Virginia (5.1) is bigger than his lead in Colorado (4.0) according to their RCP Poll Average.

They have Pennsylvania as "Leaning Dem" with Obama's lead at 13.8.

Even though their outlook shows 273 electoral votes for Obama, the bar chart shows him stopping exactly on the 270 line. (Yes, I took a screenshot and blew it up.)


[ Parent ]
I agree with you BUT (0.00 / 0)
they have a case, if they take the conservative view for every possible McCain state.  For example, RCP has Virginia as lean Obama, but Pollster has it as tossup.

Of course, that isn't a very good methodology - and what's even crazier is how, supposedly, certain states "lean" McCain, such as Indiana, or even more so North Carolina, when they are so CLEARLY toss-up.  

That is a flagrant violation of what the data is showing - across all maps.


Sad But True (4.00 / 2)
The complaint used to be that the big media were all about the horserace.

Still mostly true, but they suck at it.  All they can do is bogus color commentary.  For actual information, you're SOL.

It's almost like they want to make themselves irrelevant.

They are McCain's base, after all.  They "think" as one....

My friends.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


the false dichotomy (0.00 / 0)
they established between McCain's attack on Obama for Ayers association (irrelevant and petty mudslinging) and Obama's attacks on McCain for his Keating 5 corruption (totally relevant to our current degulation meltdown) is a great example of their simplistic bias.  

[ Parent ]
I vote for all of the above (4.00 / 1)
They're wedded to a close race narrative, and to the McCain as Maverick myth. Being an underdog--but still running close--allows them to wed the two.

He's running close! He's a Maverick! It's down to the wire! They're both going negative!

He's a Maverick!

Also the fear of being accused of being in the tank for Obama, because, of course, saying that the numbers greatly favor Obama means exactly that. So, next time they predict sunny skies, does that make them in the tank for good weather?

Like nearly everyone here, I look to blogs and smaller media outlets like the Nation for facts and substance, and the establishment media for a sense of, well, what the establishment is saying, because that's where the majority of Americans still get their facts and opinion. Plus, it's an addiction that's hard to beat.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


purged voters and secret racists (0.00 / 0)
A lot (how many?) of voters think they are registered and plan to vote, but they've been purged. (good segment on purges on Democracy Now this morning). There is also the phenomenon of people who know they ought to vote for the black guy, and say they will but don't.

Not to be too Chicken Little, but none of the polls consider these unnusual factors. As many as 5% of voters may have been wrongly purged, mostly democrats. Secret racists were as many as 6% in some studies, though logic so overwhelmingly favors Obama that logical secret racists can probably vote for him.

I hope the Obama campaign plans to put his national volunteers to work at the polls on election day standing up for wrongly purged voters.

 


Denial video (0.00 / 0)
http://snipurl.com/483ql

Denying reality is all McCain has left and it's all the media's got to keep it interesting.

dk


could be (0.00 / 0)
I suspect it's just that big sites are more conservative (not in the political sense) and are less willing to throw states that have newly-tipped to Obama into his column.

As per usual, it's all about the Benjamins $$$$$$$ (0.00 / 0)
Are you kidding me, for the first time in years news is genuinely profitable again. Nobody in the media business wants this gravy train to end. Big bucks for the corporate owners and giant bonuses for network executives. With the ratings that these debates are getting, the networks can charge the advertisers Super Bowl rates.  Doubtless the networks would like to have a hotly contested election like this every year.  Perhaps their lobbyists will propose a constitutional amendment to that effect.  :-)

And of course CNN is totally in the tank for anyone who is not Obama, along with much of corporate America.  To their credit, MSNBC saw which way the wind was blowing and did the right thing.

Of course we all know that power mad corporate slime who just milked America's economy for everything it was worth over the last eight years and then stuck the American people with the bill for their piracy and thievery (nice work if you can get it), would never use THEIR media to try an influence an election, or set the stage for another stolen election, explaining away the surprise McCain triumph on the Bradley effect, and those young people who just didn't show up to vote.  No doubt there will be some attempt made to subvert the will of the American people, just as in the last presidential election, but this time everybody is watching very carefully.

Voter fraud is the Republicans last best hope.  If we see predominately African-American districts coming back with zero votes for Obama, as we did in the Democratic primary in New York and a few other places, then you will know beyond a shadow of a doubt that the fix is in, and we're all just along for the you ride in a country that's been totally hijacked out from under us. But I imagine the forces of evil who are at this very moment aligning themselves against the American people, will be more subtle in their adjustment of the numbers in places like Virginia and Florida.  Doubtless a plethora of contingency plans are being formulated at this very moment by those rat bastards who think they own this country.

One thing is certain, there is about to be a long overdue reckoning in America, and one way or the other the American people's voice will be heard.  Let's just hope that there is no blood in the streets, and that no one dies, and tanks don't have to roll through Dupont Circle to quell unrest, should the American people be forced rise up in furious anger to throw down their oppressors.  For the sake of the oppressors and slave massas in this country, I hope not.  Hope is our watchword, hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

Sidenote:

By the way, I happen to own one of those Sony Digital stereo MP3 recorders (the red one) that you've been advertising on your site recently.  Nice little piece of equipment that works very well, and is automatically recognized by Windows and Apple systems without loading any software.  It's also compatible with Dragon NaturallySpeaking. I recently used it with a microphone at the Biden Palin debate.  


glad to see you read my comment yesterday! (4.00 / 2)
No thanks necessary.  :)

I can add from what I said there :


ABC News has IN, NC, and MO all as lean McCain; NH, OH, FL, VA, CO and NV are toss-ups; and states like MI, NJ, and OR are listed as lean Obama. And CBS News is the best: they have NC as a solid McCain state (they don't list leaners), while OR, MN, WI, MI, and PA, among others, are toss-ups.

And the Washington Post has Indiana as a solid red state, but New Jersey as a toss-up.

All of these are part of the universal pattern of big media orgs having a pro-McCain tilt to their electoral maps, relative to the objective, poll-based sites.


Should have mentioned you in the post (0.00 / 0)
Will update to reflect.

[ Parent ]
Fake close race is now a good thing. (4.00 / 2)
   I want Democrats to turn out for downballot races, and they will turn out better if the presidential race is perceived to be close.  Studies from 2004 show that youth turnout, at least, was MUCH higher in swing states.  So I'll happily go along with the morons who made the "poll of polls" and think it's unique (and Jerome Armstrong), and say this race is tight, tight, tight!  

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

This Morning (4.00 / 1)
This Morning on MSNBC, Joe Scarborough, Pat Buchanan and Andrea Mitchell were discussing the desperate acts of the McCain campaign.  At the end of the conversation, Mitchell reminded everyone that no one has voted yet and anything could still happen.  Buchanan reminded her that the polls continue to move in Obama's favor.  And Mitchell responds, "I know, I just don't want it to end"


Computer voting and why this is not over (4.00 / 1)
We are all aware the vote is still rigged right?  I don't see any comments raising this fact. This is "Open Left", right? We're reading Mark Crispin Miller and RFK Jr....right?...?

Once again, exit polls in the swing states will show a Democrat victory.  Once again, the e-voting systems, controlled by Republican interests and born-again freaks will facilitate a huge number of switched votes and fabricated Repub. votes via trojan horse programs in the tabulation software no one is allowed to inspect.

The media will scratch their heads and wonder, once again, how in the holy Christ the exit polls were so wrong.  They will surmise it was a bunch of white people telling pollsters they were voting Obama but lying because deep down they couldn't vote for a nigger.  Everyone will believe the MSM nonsense as usual.

"President" McCain will die in office in 2011 and Sarah Palin will bring Jesus back in a swirl of corpses and mushroom clouds when the Mayan calendar ends with the vernal equinox entering Aquarius in 2012.  

Praise Him.


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