(Dark Blue (271): Obama +7.0% or more
Lean Blue (67): Obama +2.6%-+6.9%
White / Toss-up (31): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (11): McCain +2.6%-+6.9%
Dark Red (158): McCain +7.0% or more)
With Obama's base over 270 electoral votes, the swing state chart has been put on hold for the time being. Instead, I would like to muse about Obama's maximum victory. Personally, I think it is 364 electoral votes, which means the 338 he has here plus Missouri and North Carolina. Some people think that Georiga, Indiana, Montana and West Virginia are also winnable, which would give Obama 398. While Obama is running paid media and field staff in all four of those states, I still don't think he can win them. And no, I don't buy the ARG poll showing Obama up 8% in West Virginia, even if I included it in my aveages.
When it comes to offering concern troll advice to McCain and Republicans, I would recommend shutting down all paid media, and firing all campaign staff. McCain should take his remaining money, and distribute it to the RNC, NRCC and NRSC. Target a few close House and Senate seats to try and limit the damage, but otherwise save money for 2010 and 2012. When you are beaten, it is probably better to withdraw, save what troops and resources you can, but live to fight another day. Now how's that for some concern troll advice?
* Maine's four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.2% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.2% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls with the majority of their interviews condcuted within the last 7 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
Every state has at least three polls, so the first exception are states without three polls that meet the previous criteria. In the event that three polls taken within the past week are not available, the three most recent polls are used. (Note: "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/15-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/16. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point (within 0.5), all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.)
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than two poll in a state over the last 7 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
No pre-September polls. I'm just sick of including them.
During the final two weeks of the election, only polls taken entirely within the past seven days will be included in the averages (with the same exceptions listed above, of course).
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