(Dark Blue (280): Obama +7.0% or more
Lean Blue (49): Obama +2.6%-+6.9%
White / Toss-up (40): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (29): McCain +2.6%-+6.9%
Dark Red (140): McCain +7.0% or more)
Twenty-two days left, and Obama's lead still looks good. Missouri moves to "Lean Obama" from "Toss-up" and North Dakota moves to "Lean McCain" from "Solid McCain." Ohio did shift toward McCain, but that is because two polls with Obama +6% dropped out of the average, while the outlying University of Cincinnati poll showing McCain up 2% remained. The four most recent polls from Ohio show Obama ahead by an average of 3.3%, so unless there are more outlying Ohio polls, the Buckeye state will return to "Lean Obama" in a couple of days.
My fantasy scenario has Obama winning the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia for a total of 364 electoral votes. If we snag any more states, like North Dakota or West Virginia, that would be great, too. However, the one I really want is North Carolina, as it represents a major beachhead into red state territory that can probably be held long-term. Turning North Carolina into a swing state for the next decade or two would severely complicate electoral math for Republicans. We haven't won North Carolina in a Presidential campaign since 1976, but the long-term demographic trends are pretty sweet. It is the top prize in a blowout election, if you ask me.
Of course, I would also be happy if we win by any margin. State by state details in the extended entry.
* Maine's four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.2% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.2% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls with the majority of their interviews condcuted within the last 7 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
Every state has at least three polls, so the first exception are states without three polls that meet the previous criteria. In the event that three polls taken within the past week are not available, the three most recent polls are used. (Note: "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/15-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/16. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point (within 0.5), all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.)
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than two poll in a state over the last 7 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
No pre-September polls. I'm just sick of including them.
During the final two weeks of the election, only polls taken entirely within the past seven days will be included in the averages (with the same exceptions listed above, of course).
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