Moving Day Polls

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:38


Natasha and I are deep in the throes of moving, so I won't be able to blog much until later tonight. For now, however, here is a polling round-up thread:

Presidential National
ARG: +5, up 1%
Battleground +13, up 5
Gallup expanded: +10, even
Gallup traditional: +6, down 1
Hotline +6, even
Rasmussen +5, even (though really +6 and up 1)
Research 2000 +11, down 1
Zogby +6, up 2
Obama's national lead now 8.5%, largest ever. IBD and LA Times later today...

Presidential States
CO: Obama 52%--43% McCain (Q-poll)
CO: Obama 47%--43% McCain (Suffolk)
MI: Obama 54%--38% McCain (Q-poll)
MN: Obama 51%--40% McCain (Q-poll)
NC: Obama 49%--46% McCain (PPP)
OK: McCain 63%--32% Obama (why is there a tracking poll in OK?)
OH: Obama 50%--45% McCain (Survey USA) Ohio is again lean-Obama.
OR: Obama 57%--40% McCain (Survey USA)
PA: Obama 55%--40% McCain (Survey USA)
PA: Obama 51%--38% McCain (Tracking)
WI: Obama 54%--37% McCain (Q-poll)

Senate
Colorado: Udall (D) 45%--34% Schaffer (R)
Colorado: Udall 54%--40% Schaffer. Goodnight Irene.
Minnesota: Franken 38%, Coleman 36%, Barkley 18%. I think we are going to win this one. Franken leads by 4% across the last three polls. The large 3rd party performances makes the campaign very unstable, however.
North Carolina: Hagen 46%--44% Dole. Another state where we look good for the win

House
First, three new polls from the DCCC...
WA-08: Burner (D) 49%--44% Reichert (R-inc). Yes!! Darcy leads! It is true that other polls show Reichert ahead, but the recent one showing him up by 8% had Obama only up 4%. In a district like this, Obama should lead by around 13%. This campaign is probably tied. Contribute to Darcy here.
NJ-03: Alder (D) 38%--34% Myers (R)
NJ-07: Stender (D) 40%--31% Lance (R) (8% to a 3rd party candidate)

And a couple more from other pollsters...
NV-02: Heller (R) 51%--38% Derby (D) Every rose has it's thorn...
PA-03: Dahlkemper (D) 48%--41% English (R-inc) This one looks like a lock.
Chris Bowers :: Moving Day Polls

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Moving Day Polls | 12 comments
Yay (0.00 / 0)
Polls are up for the financial corporate welfare pusher!

Yay $250 Billion early Christmas gift to bankers and a do nothing candidate. Isn't life grand! NC is in play! Woooopy!

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

This actually isn't welfare (4.00 / 2)
This is turning into a buyout, not a bailout. It is nationalization, where the feds get a big ownership stake. That is pretty cool, actually. I'm happy that this is the direction the legislation is moving. Thankfully, other countries appear to have steered us in the right direction.
[ Parent ]
Just as I was getting confident about CO (0.00 / 0)
What's Suffolk doing there dropping a big steamer in the punch bowl?

I'm still bracing for disappointment in Darcy's race. I'm more invested in that one (emotionally and financially) than I am in about any other race in the country, but the polling so far has been depressing. This is the first good number I've seen out of that race.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

Obama up 4, with McCain at 43%, is a bad result for Colorado? (0.00 / 0)
Doesn't seem that way to me.  Why should that make you any less confident about Obama being in good shape there?
[ Parent ]
I'm spoiled? (0.00 / 0)
Seriously, in a state that was leaning Obama when the national polls were close, being up only four when the natioal polls are +7 or +8 in Obama's favor is not that great a result.

Yes, I'm spoiled. I'm worried about any state that isn't like +6 for Obama.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

[ Parent ]
Good luck in your new home, Chris :-) (0.00 / 0)

new house (0.00 / 0)
chris are you moving into your McMansion?  The new socialized banks would approve!
[ Parent ]
Nope (0.00 / 0)
Natasha is moving from D.C. to my place in Philly. Her estuff is going in storage for now while we share my one bedroom apartment. Hopefully, we can find something bigger after the election.
[ Parent ]
There are actually some good deals to be had in Philly (0.00 / 0)
Not a bad time for those of you in the city of brotherly love :)
[ Parent ]
Anyone else here watch.... (0.00 / 0)
the TV show 'How I met your Mother' as I am reminded of last nights episode where Ted goes to move in with his girlfriend Stella.  

I do not watch much TV but I make an exception for this brilliant show!

[ Parent ]
Updating my prediction from last week... (0.00 / 0)
My take from last week.

With 3 weeks to go, I'm somewhat more optimistic. I'm now going to guess at a 4.5-5% victory for Obama in the popular vote, and predicting the same states as last week (Kerry states plus New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado and Florida) plus Ohio and Nevada - 338 EVs. I'm expecting North Carolina and Missouri to just slip away, but if the national polling continues to hold, I expect I'll be adding one or both to my prediction next week. Of the two, I'm more bullish about Missouri.

I'm feeling much more optimistic about the Senate, perhaps unreasonably so considering how close a lot of these races are and that I expect the top of the ticket to tighten. I'm predicting 8 seats (vs. 6 last week) -- Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina, Oregon, Minnesota and Georgia. Yes Georgia - you heard it here first. African American turnout from Obama's coattails will pull this one over the finish line. Jim Martin's run a great campaign in unfavorable territory, and I expect the DSCC to dump some cash into his race. Unfortunately, I think the prosecutors in Alaska have bungled the Stevens case, and he's gonna get a boost from the acquittal.

In the house, I'm going to just throw out a number... 16.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

NV-2 (4.00 / 1)
I wouldn't take this poll too seriously. Yes, Derby is probably still down but this poll polled only 222 registered voters and has a MoE of 7 points. Furthermore, Mason Dixon, at least in Nevada, tilts towards the Republican candidates. Not the most trustworthy of polls.

My Silver State - Nevada's Progressive Community Blog
Moving Day Polls | 12 comments
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