Early Exit Polls: Obama Leads In Georgia

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:51


Survey USA is starting to report crosstabs for early voters in many of their recent state polls. In every state where they have such crosstabs, Obama is ahead by shocking margins. First, Georgia:

Early and absentee voting began in Georgia on 09/22/08. Among the 18% of Georgia voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads by 6 points; among those who have not yet voted, McCain leads by 11.

With 18% of the vote in, this crosstab is effectively an "exit poll" showing that Obama is literally winning in Georgia right now. Similarly surprising pro-Obama margins can be seen in several other states, like Iowa:

Among the 14% of Iowa voters who say they have already cast their ballot, Obama leads by a 2:1 margin.

And New Mexico:

Among the 10% of New Mexico voters who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 23 points.

And North Carolina:

Obama has a slight advantage among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. North Carolina has 15 Electoral College votes

And Ohio:

Of the 12% of respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads by 18.

None of the other Survey USA polls released this month included early voting subsets. Still, these numbers are enough to indicate that Obama is clearly over-performing among early voters compared to his standing among all voters. This means that the Obama field campaign is obviously superior to McCain's, and that even if McCain tightens the campaign later on, Obama will already have banked a substantial lead. Early voting is also an excellent protection against the voter suppression tactics Republicans regularly employ.

Obama is winning big across the board right now. Best of all, this lead is not just in polls, but in actual votes.

Update: Survey USA also reports that Jim Martin leads by 4% in the Georgia Senate campaign, among early voters.

Update 2: Also, I should note that I share skepticism of those who think this all sounds like 2004, and as such is too good to be true. However, keep in mind that during the early voting phase in 2004, Kerry never actually led Bush. During early voting in 2008, we all know that Obama is well ahead right now. That, combined with a less than effective McCain ground game (Bush's was excellent, McCain's isn't) makes things very different from 2004.

Update 3: It should be noted that these subsets have very high margins of error. However, that Obama is outperforming his overall numbers in every single one of these subsets makes it highly unlikely that this is just "statistical noise." If it were truly random, than the early voting numbers would be pro-McCain in at least one of the five states listed here. Instead, Obama outperforms in all five.

Update 4: If Obama is ahead by 30% in Iowa with 14% reporting, should we already call the state for Obama? I'm tempted.

Update 5: 538 has more on this.
Chris Bowers :: Early Exit Polls: Obama Leads In Georgia

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Early Exit Polls: Obama Leads In Georgia | 21 comments
Those are just chicken fetuses (0.00 / 0)
I'm not part of the fret and worry and lose your hair crowd, but people talking about early voting reminds me of my experience in 2004. I reported for volunteering duty on election day, with promising early and absentee voting numbers in hand, culled from blogs. There was exciting early-voting polls out of Ohio... There were supposedly more Democratic absentee ballots sent out and turned in in Iowa...

I won't take any of this for granted this time. These numbers are promising but SurveyUSA is polling unhatched chickens, not voters.

On the other hand, if you're a less worrysome sort than me, do please remember that margins matter as much as winning. Every vote counts, because it might be the vote that makes the difference in a close down-ticket race even if the top of the ticket is a blowout.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

Hey, I understand (0.00 / 0)
Back in 2004, I was wrote on MyDD, where we broke the early exits first. I ran to all nearby polling locations, and told everyone the great news, only for it to fall flat.

So, I understand your worry. However, Obama is ahead by a lot right now, and early voting has begun. This was never the case in 2004, as Bush and Kerry were either neck in neck, or Bush held a slight lead, during early voting. Obama is ahead at the right time, and McCain's field campaign is nowhere near Bush's. So, even if the news doesn't turn out this well, it is still reaonable to assume that Obama is ding very well in early voting right now.

[ Parent ]
It's just a reminder of how I felt (0.00 / 0)
It was just such a sick sinking feeling that night in 2004. Even before the nets started calling the swing states everything felt all wrong. God it was horrible.

I want Republicans to feel like that.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

[ Parent ]
If Republicans start feeling like that on election day... (0.00 / 0)
...then something will have gone very wrong for us.  The only way to feel the way we all did in 2004 is to think that you're really going to win, only to have it yanked away in the cruelest fashion.  And the only way that can happen this time is for Obama to lose almost his entire polling lead between now and election day.  

Much better for us if the Republicans remain dejected and fully expecting to lose (as they already feel today) for every single day between now and Nov. 4.

[ Parent ]
However it happens... (4.00 / 1)
I want them to feel pain. I want them to suffer. You know the scene a the end Oedipus Rex where poor Oedipus realizes what he's done, and he gouges out his eyes before slinking off into the sunset? That's pansy shit right there.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
[ Parent ]
LOL (4.00 / 1)
The best-case scenario for us in terms of making them feel serious pain is probably getting to 60 in the Senate.
[ Parent ]
Obama's campain is probably the best-run campaign in US political history (4.00 / 1)
It's a campaign that'll be studied for years to come.
margin of error (0.00 / 0)
It should be pointed out that the Margin of Error in these subsets has to be extreamly high. Like in New Mexico, the subset of early voters was around 75 people. I'd expect the margin of error to be +- 25% or something like that for a sample that small. NOt to say that I'm not excited to see the numbers, but I'll get excited once we have some larger samples.
Yes, but (4.00 / 1)
Yes, there is a high margin of error in these subsets. However, that Obama is doing so well in all of them makes it hard to pin these leads on MoE. If it were simply random fluctuation, some of the numbers would be better for McCain. None are.
[ Parent ]
don't call Iowa (0.00 / 0)
The whole reason why states aren't called until the polls close is because anything can happen. For example, if we find out tomorrow that Obama is an axe murderer, and 90% of those 70% who haven't voted yet don't vote for McCain, then Obama loses.
Is the early voting RATE up? (0.00 / 0)
With registrations up and in the Democrats' favor this year, is the proportion of early voting up in these states?
In Georgia it is (0.00 / 0)
I think more people have already voted early in Georgia than in the entire early voting period in 2004. And there is still three weeks to go.

I don't know what the numbers are for the other states. I could be wrong, but I don't think there was any early voting in Ohio in 2004. So obviously that is a big difference.

[ Parent ]
Ethics and election reform (0.00 / 0)
I wonder if releasing polls like this about people who have already voted is truly ethical.  It is very much like the networks calling the Presidency for Reagan before the polls close in California, and costing voters for other races.

Sure, in this case, it may help Obama, because McCain voters may be too dejected to vote.  It may hurt Obama because his voters will assume it's in the bag.  But I bet it will really hurt downticket races and protect incumbents.

Of course, it's a moot point if the mass media doesn't pick it up--for this cycle.

Coordinated campaign in my district helps downticket candidates (0.00 / 0)
The Obama campaign has named it Illinois Victory 2008 and the offices direct their voter contact and canvassing to support for Obama, the Dems running for Congress, and all the others running for state office.

I don't think they plan to let voters escape a phone call to make sure that all the voters have gone to their polling places.

[ Parent ]
Chris (0.00 / 0)
Do you have any good models that correlate early voting exit polls to final results? I am wondering if there is a relatively reliable pattern or not.

I am guessing no because I imagine different demographic groups might vote early compare to on polling day but who knows I could be wrong as I have been many times before hehe.

In the primary (0.00 / 0)
There was a decent estimate in the primary of early exitsfavoring Obama. However, I have nothing for the general election.
[ Parent ]
Those are just absentees in North Carolina. (0.00 / 0)
Our early voting doesn't start until tomorrow, so of their 617 actual and likely voters I'd imagine that the large majority are likely voters and that the margin of error on the actual voters is huge compared to Obama's "slight advantage".

The truth about John McCain.
Count me among those (0.00 / 0)
who was burned by high expectations in 2004. I even wrote a Dkos Rec List diary about how our GOTV in Florida was destroying Bush. It was a WaPo story, but turned out to be anecdotal and false.

It took me a long time to get over the shock of Bush's victory in 2004. I had to essentially tune out of politics for a year. I have much more confidence that Obama will win this year, but I think it is too early to say we are "winning" anything.  

Obama banked early votes in the Texas primary, but Clinton came back to win it on election day. This ain't over until 8PM Pacific time on Nov. 4th.

As an anecdote (0.00 / 0)
I voted early this morning in GA. You don't go in and fill out a paper absentee ballot and fill it in, you vote with the voting machine as you would normally. The line at the fairly small registrar's office was out the door.
All Those Slothful Voters Scurrying To The Polls! (4.00 / 1)
Oh my ears and whiskers!

By George, George Will will be so upset!

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

self-reported vs actual early voting (0.00 / 0)
another caveat is that people who self-report as having voted early probably aren't the same as the people who actually did.  that might bias the results in some way.
Early Exit Polls: Obama Leads In Georgia | 21 comments
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