Second Poll Confirms Darcy Burner Lead, 47-40

by: Matt Stoller

Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 13:34

Despite Reichert campaign manager Mike Shields's attempt to unlock right-wing money for Reichert through a savvy PR campaign (including this Amy Sullivan article in Time titled Will the Netroots Sink a Microsoft Dem?), the wave has caught up in the Northwest.  Darcy's up 47-40 over Reichert in the latest Lake Research polling, with Reichert's reelect number at just 36%.

The full polling memo is on the flip, but the key here is that Reichert's floor of 52 has been cracked, and he's now in the low 40s.  That means that his main asset, his image of a hard charging sheriff is no longer working in the district.  Lake is Darcy's pollster, but there are reasons to think this confirmation of yesterday's DCCC poll is on target.  Her message is getting out there, as even sportsbloggers are complaining about how many commerials they are seeing.

Matt Stoller :: Second Poll Confirms Darcy Burner Lead, 47-40
The latest Lake Research Partners survey of likely voters in Washington's 8th District  shows Democrat Darcy Burner leading Republican Dave Reichert for the first time in the history of our polling.  

• Burner now leads Reichert 47% to 40%.  This is the first time she has ever led, signaling that the voters of WA-08 are ready for the kind of change on behalf of middle class families that Burner promises to bring.  

• Reichert's job performance rating has plummeted to 34% good or excellent versus a majority (55%) just fair or poor.  Voters are waking up to the reality that Reichert has been exceptionally ineffective on behalf of the district, and are tired of his being a rubberstamp for George Bush's policies.

• Reichert's re-elect stands at just 36%.  The remaining two thirds of the electorate would consider voting for someone else, vote to replace Reichert, or aren't sure.

• Burner's positive message is starting to penetrate, while Reichert's lack of leadership is exposed.  Voters who have recently heard, seen, or read something about Burner feel more favorably toward her by a better than 2-to-1 margin (39% more favorable to 18% less favorable).  By way of contrast, voters who have recently heard, seen, or read something about Reichert are twice as likely to feel less favorably than more favorably about him as a result (16% more favorable to 30% less favorable).

With enough resources to continue to communicate Burner's strong messages and inform voters about Reichert's ineffectiveness, Burner is on a path to emerge victorious in 20 days.

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Obama Wave and Economic Meltdown (4.00 / 1)
are going to carry Darcy Burner to victory!
Yesterday SUSA had WA at 56-40 Obama.  

Primary? (0.00 / 0)
and less than a month before her primary in September, she flew down to Austin to attend Netroots Nation, the annual gathering of liberal bloggers convened by Daily Kos.

Is my memory off? I thought her potential primary opponent withdrew back in 2007 after Burner raised a pile of cash online. Am I missing something?

WA has a best two primary system (0.00 / 0)
It's kinda like a mini general.  For this race, everyone knew that Burner and Reichert would be the best two.

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Washington does it differently than most places (0.00 / 0)
From Wikipedia:

The Washington primary election was held 2008-08-19. For the first time, Washington ran a top-two primary, eliminating the "pick a party" primary used since 2004. Unlike traditional primaries, wherein each party with more than one candidate is reduced to a single person to appear on the general election ballot, the system simply reduces the entire crop of candidates from all parties down to the top two vote-getters, resulting in no more than two candidates appearing on the general election ballot for a given position. As a result, candidates from all parties were essentially running against each other. To allow for ideological identification, each candidate in a partisan race was allowed to indicate an arbitrary party preference.

If you look at the WA-08 results, you'll see that 6 people ran in the primary, and Reichert & Burner were the top two vote-getters.  So they'll face off in the general election.

Notice that if you add up the votes for the 3 Democrats, it's slightly more than what Reichert (the only Republican) got.  Of course, that probably doesn't mean an awful lot, since I'm guessing that there will be a lot more people voting in the regular election than did in the primary.  But it is encouraging.

[ Parent ]

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