(Dark Blue (276): Obama +7.0% or more
Lean Blue (73): Obama +2.6%-+6.9%
White / Toss-up (20): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (29): McCain +2.6%-+6.9%
Dark Red (140): McCain +7.0% or more)
Only 20 days left, and Obama's lead remains extremely solid. Currently, he goes over 270 with Virginia, which he leads by an average of 7.0% across the three polls conducted in that state this week. Overall, Obama leads by 4.0% or more in states worth 338 electoral votes. He is also outspending McCain and the RNC by a 3-1 margin in paid media.
Hard to imagine how the debate tonight could change any of this. Debates seem more like potential landmines for candidates rather than opportunities to gain. As such, McCain's best hope tonight is for a major Obama gaffe, as it is unlikely that any one-liners or 60 second answers will somehow allow him to start gaining ground. However, Obama seems to be a very poised politician, and rarely makes any gaffes at all.
With every day that passes, Obama banks more and more voters. By Election Day, at least 25% of all votes will have already been cast. If Obama continues to perform as strongly among early voters as he has done so far, he will secure the Presidency rather early in the evening on November 4th. This will be the case no matter how many voters the Republicans manage to disenfranchise.
Things look very good right now. Mark me down as "cautiously optimistic," up from my usual "nervous as hell." State by state details in the extended entry.
* Maine's four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.2% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.2% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls with the majority of their interviews condcuted within the last 7 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
Every state has at least three polls, so the first exception are states without three polls that meet the previous criteria. In the event that three polls taken within the past week are not available, the three most recent polls are used. (Note: "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/15-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/16. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point (within 0.5), all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.)
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than two poll in a state over the last 7 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
No pre-September polls. I'm just sick of including them.
During the final two weeks of the election, only polls taken entirely within the past seven days will be included in the averages (with the same exceptions listed above, of course).
