As those of you who read my stuff know, I have been haranguing people like a madman in recent weeks that this thing isn't over, that we should never let up, that we should not be cocky or take anything for granted. And I will say down to the last day that anything could happen, that we don't know what the Bradley effect will be on the Presidential level, that we should keep pouring our heart out until the very last hour. But even I am starting to listen for the sounds of the Fat Lady singing. Even I am reaching for the fork to stick in this turkey.
Barring a truly catastrophic last-minute event or mistake, or a Bradley effect on the Presidential level completely beyond the realm of expectation, this thing is done. To those pundits who said this was McCain's best debate, or that he held his own with Obama, I have to ask: what were you smoking during last night's debate? Obama crushed McCain in that debate, adding to the cumulative effect of the two other Presidential debates and the VP debate: the Democrats are calm and steady and talking about the things that matter to the American people; John McCain is, in the words of Democracy Corps focus group participants last night, a "grumpy old man" (must have read my blog post the other day) and "a jerk." Obama won over undecideds and even McCain leaners last night in all the surveys and focus groups that were done, dominated in his responses to McCain's attacks, and dominated in his discussion of the most important issues, especially health care and the economy.
So with this thing moving so much in our direction, here's what I would do if I were running the Obama campaign:
1. Lock down Ohio, Florida, and Virginia in the next few days. With momentum we have we are in a position if we move aggressively to solidify ourselves in these three states. I would spend the next week really focused on nailing them down. We're a few points up in all of them, but they are all historically volatile and competitive. I would add even more to your advertising buys there; have both Obamas and both Bidens and both Clintons and other major surrogates flood the zone in these states; dump more staff and money into early voting. If we can build a double-digit, super-reinforced wall in all of these states (which also have at least nine swing congressionals in play), we will have a lot of flexibility in the last ten days to run up the score and help tons of House and Senate candidates.
2. House and Senate candidates. I'm hearing way too many stories about the Chicago office keeping too much distance between the Obama campaign and House/Senate folks in the states. It's time to dive in and do everything possible to help Democrats win a lot of the toughest races around the country, which has the twofer benefit package of helping build your governing majority and repairing some damaged relationships with the members of Congress and Senators you are going to need next year. Add other Dems to your fliers and door hangers, embrace fellow Democrats at rallies, etc.
Here's what I absolutely would not do if I were running the Obama campaign: glide. It's time to go for a landslide, carrying Democrats with you in a massive tidal wave. Do not relax or slow down or lose your focus or drift. If you win this thing going away, and pick up 35 House members and 10 Senators as a result, the odds of you being a successful President are dramatically increased. Since I have been involved in politics full-time (28 years now), I have lived through three absolutely crushing elections: 1980, 1994, and 2004. I have also lived through some good Democratic years: 1982, 1986, 1990, 1992, 1996, 1998, 2006. But there's a big difference between a good year and a truly crushing victory: with the latter, you have so much more power to actually get real things done. This year, we have a real opportunity to win a crushing victory. Let's finish off the job.
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