The national polls are definitely tightening a bit. Looking across several national poll measurements, the movement in unmistakable:
Obama National Poll Margin, 10/13 and 10/18
| Org |
10/13 |
10/18 |
Shift |
| Pollster |
8.0% |
5.9% |
-2.1% |
| RCP |
7.2% |
6.3% |
-0.9% |
| Tremayne |
7.5% |
6.2% |
-1.3% |
| TPM |
7.6% |
5.2% |
-2.4% |
| 538 |
8.0%* |
6.6% |
-1.4% |
* = Can't actually find the number. Going from user comments back on Monday
No matter which way you look at it, McCain has gained ground, really anywhere from 1%-2.5%, The varying movement comes from different organizations using different polls in their averages, and / or from weighting the polls differently in their averages. I tend to prefer Pollster.com, because it using all polls and applies equal weights to them ( I think).
Still, no matter which way you look at it, Obama still holds a strong lead, at least in comparison to the two most recent elections. He appears to lead by about 6% which, according to the partisan leanings of individual states in the 2004 election, would be enough to score 349 electoral votes: all of the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia. With none of the Kerry states remotely close right now, one then is prone to look at Iowa and New Mexico, which were the two narrowest Bush victories in 2004. Of the seven pickups listed above, they also happen to have the two widest margins for Obama right now according to Pollster.com and according to my own averages. So, even with a tightened campaign, we reach 264 electoral votes without breaking a sweat. And yes, there have been new state polls during the tightening period to confirm this.
So, which of the five remaining pickups are the best bets to secure victory for Obama? As long as I am allowed two answers that is actually a very easy question: Colorado and Virginia. Obama leads both of these states by 6% or more according to Pollster.com, Real Clear Politics, Electoral-Vote.com, fivethirtyeight.com, and myself. This puts both of these states right at, or possibly even above, the current national trendline. Excepting Iowa and New Mexico, they also currently give Obama noticeably wider leads than any of the other current pickup opportunities.
This is actually very good news, because it now means that Obama has not one, but two "low hanging fruit" paths to victory. If you are worried that Obama's lead is shrinking, my advice is simply to look to Colorado and Virginia. As long as he is ahead in one of those two states, then he is still headed to victory. Right now, he is so far ahead in both states, that there is virtually no chance he would the election. We have also been on real winning streaks in both states recently, picking up the Colorado Governorship (we already had the Virginia Governorship), two--and soon to be all four--U.S. Senate seats, two--and soon to be three or four--U.S. House seats, not to mention three of the four branches of the state legislatures. In other words, these are just not states where Democrats have been losing much at all.
Colorado and Virginia serve as a very strong two-state firewall. And remember, Obama only needs one. |
