- Average polling error from final polls to final results: 2.0%
- Number of states where polls favored a candidate other than the winner: 1, Wisconsin 2004 Presidential shifted from Bush 0.7% to Kerry 0.4%
- Average partisan shift from final polls to final results: Democrats +0.5%
- Largest pro-Republican shifts: VA-Pres (-4.2%), FL-Pres (-3.4%), AR-Pres (-3.3%), AK-Gov (-3.0%), MT-Sen (-3.0%). NC-Sen (-2.5%), MO-Pres (-2.2%). No other pro-Republican shifts greater than 2.0%.
- Largest pro-Democratic shifts: KY-Sen (+7.0%), MD-Sen (+5.75%), MD-Gov (+5.5%), RI-Sen (+5.0%), NV-Pres (+3.7%), NV-Gov (+3.0%), WA-Pres (+2.2%). No other pro-Democratic shifts greater than 2.0%.
- Most accurate polling: OH-Pres 2004. Yes, that's right--Ohio 2004 was the most accurate polling of these 42 averages. There was a difference of 0.0% from the final polls to the final result.
In other words, the research I have conducted on my own actually suggests a slight pro-Democratic shift from final polls to final results in close statewide elections. This doesn't exactly instill me with a lot of fear that a Republican conspiracy has used voting machines to shift elections in their favor. In fact, I don't see much of a conspiracy at all, given that two-thirds of these campaigns ended up with results that were different from final week polling by 2.0% or less. That actually instills me with a lot of confidence in final week polling averages, rather than a lack of confidence in voting machines. As such, it serves as the rationale behind my presidential forecast methodology.
Now, I am completely in favor of election reform. In fact, along with the Employee Free Choice Act, media reform, and immigration reform, I have repeatedly identified it as one of the four "progressive positive feedback loops." Those who raise concerns about election error and election tampering in order to either pass legislative reform and / or support election protection measures are engaged in solid issue advocacy and / or election activism. Good for them. I support their efforts whole heartedly.
However, those who only selectively claim fraud in cases where their candidate lost, those who offer up voting machine fraud as a singular rationale for progressive and Democratic defeat, and those who fatalistically raise these fears without offering a legislative and / or activist solution to the problem--well, I just find stuff like that annoying. I certainly understand people's concerns, what with the many behind the scene power grabs by Republicans over the years, but in this case I am pretty sure people are barking up the wrong tree. There absolutely are widespread Republican attempts to suppress the vote, but as far as pro-Republican voting machine fraud goes, I just don't see it.