Chris' note that the big media sites were refusing to acknowledge Obama being above 270 EC votes by any reasonable polling analysis methodology was an important point. For whatever reason, reality is setting in with most of them, and they are being forced to update with Obama being over 270.
First, the non-corporate media projection sites updated counts:
I also checked Fox, ABC and the USA Today but they don't have projected maps that I saw.
Couple thoughts on this:
I am not afraid this is demotivational. This is the reality based community and I don't want to encourage the media to portray a close race if that is not the reality. This isn't about being overconfident or counting chickens or anything. If all these well funded media sites are going to have electoral college maps, can they please use a reputable methodology and accurately convey what the data shows? Obama can worry about keeping volunteers motivated. That said...
It is just as likely to demotivate McCain supporters. If you fear Obama people will stay home, not donate because it is "in the bag" it stands to reason seeing victory so far away will make McCain's supporters do the same. Seeing as Obama has had a solid lead in the enthusiasm gap anyway, I suspect this effect would benefit Obama - his die-hard supporters will be more numerous than McCain's.
It is important that a solid Obama victory was foreseen. This will be needed to forestall the stolen election myth Republicans are trying to construct. People can believe in stolen elections easily when polling was showing a much closer race than the result. If people vote on November 4th expecting a nail-biter and Obama takes over 300 EC votes, they will be suspicious.
The last point is the biggest one I'm currently concerned about. Even now, only 2 of the 7 big media sites I listed have Obama over 300 EC votes. If Obama's performance matches what electoral-vote or 538 are predicting, this will only feed the natural paranoia and suspicion of those who have been relying on one of the big sites for tracking the race. Naturally the rightroots is going to go off the deep end about ACORN and Democratic Secretaries of State no matter what, but the point here is to restrict the insanity to just them, and not let it blow up into a major news event.
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