Senate Updates

by: Mike Lux

Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 13:30


Cross-posted on Huffington Post

Based on all the polling, voter registration, and absentee/early voting data I am seeing, and on conversations with key operatives in the field and other analysts following Senate races, I believe Kentucky and Georgia should be moving up on everyone's radar screens.
Mike Lux :: Senate Updates
Chambliss is outspending Martin by a huge margin, but Martin is hanging in there. The DSCC is now moving money in there, and the African-American turnout could be enormous. This would be the biggest story of the election in terms of the Senate, and the biggest upset of the year in general. And Martin is a terrific guy by all accounts. This should be a huge priority.

Kentucky has been a sleeper race for a while, as McConnell's approval ratings have never been so strong and Lunsford's been hanging close. With a new poll out that has Lunsford only down 46-42, and, as noted by fwiffo in Quick Hits, the one this morning that has the race tied, this is an extremely winnable race- 46% is awful for an incumbent with two weeks to go. And it is critically important. If the Republicans lose a bunch of Senate seats in general, and also lose their very experienced and strong leader in McConnell, their ability to stop the Democrats legislative agenda will be dramatically impaired even if we don't have 60 votes.

With VA, CO, NM, and NH more and more safe, and Kay Hagan now is pretty likely to win because of the money Obama is spending on African-American GOTV, the race to 60 comes down to GA and KY, plus the long standing targets of AK, MN, OR, ME, and MS. I am recommending to everyone I work with a major new push in GA and KY, and a continued effort in MN, OR, and ME (all 3 of which have strong progressive candidates), as I think there's just not enough resources or GOTV operation in MS to put it over the top, and I think AK will be decided by the verdict, not by what any of us do.

I still have fond hopes for Kleeb in NE and Rice in OK, but I think both remain pretty uphill even with the Democrats' tide.

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Senate Updates | 6 comments
GA,KY,MN, MS and OR (0.00 / 0)
are much better bets than ME at this point aren't they?

Mixed. (0.00 / 0)
MN and KY for sure, KY probably, GA and MS maybe. My theory on ME is that (a) New England tends to break Dem at the end; and (b) Obama's been putting a lot of resources in for GOTV.
[ Parent ]
ME? You think Allen has a chance? (0.00 / 0)
And what about TX? At least Noriega's less far behind than Kleeb and Rice.

Rice is down 12 according to a new SUSA poll. If this had come something like a month ago I would have called it promising (better than being down 20, for sure), but it seems like too little, too late at this point.

VA, NM safe (0.00 / 0)
CO, NH favored, OR, NC leans, MN, MS, KY, GA total tossups. As you say the verdict probably decides AK. I think 9 is likely.
Maine is gone. (4.00 / 1)
Minnesota, Mississippi, Georgia, and Kentucky need attention the most, I'd say.

Oregon and North Carolina are leaning our way and have immense Obama operations at work.  They can't be taken for granted, but I think we'll get them.  Minnesota, Mississippi, Georgia, and Kentucky are the ones we're likely to win or lose by less than 3, and we're currently more likely to lose the last three than win them.  That's where I'd send people.

Mississippi Is Close (4.00 / 1)
The polling there is quite encouraging, even more encouraging than Kentucky and Georgia. There are plenty of Democrats in and near Mississippi who would do well to volunteer there, and even more Democrats who should give there.

We also almost certainly need Mississippi to get to 60 without Lieberman (with Sanders).

Senate Updates | 6 comments
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