(Dark Blue (264): Obama +7.0% or more
Lean Blue (53): Obama +2.6%-+6.9%
White / Toss-up (64): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (16): McCain +2.6%-+6.9%
Dark Red (141): McCain +7.0% or more)
Here is the new targeting and swing state chart:
Targeting and Swing State Chart States not shown here are further in either direction
As good as these numbers look, it should be pointed out that Obama only has undisputed poll leads in states worth 286 electoral votes (the Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Virginia). In every other state where Obama leads, at least one recent poll shows McCain narrowly ahead. Combine this with reports that Republicans aren't actually doing so poorly in Colorado early voting, and that leaves only Virginia as a clear firewall.
I point this out not to scare people or be a concern troll, but simply to show that there are a few glimmers of hope for McCain, and we can't take anything for granted. No matter how great things look overall, there are a few polls and a couple of early voting numbers that look decent for McCain, and which can get him up to about 261 EV's without Virginia or Pennsylvania. Even fivethirtyeight.com shows McCain with a 3.7% chance of winning. So, things look good, but that doesn't mean it is over.
Methodology The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls with the majority of their interviews conducted within the last 7 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
Every state has at least one poll. In the event that one poll taken within the past week are not available, the most recent polls are used. (Note: "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/15-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/16. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point (within 0.5), all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.)
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than two poll in a state over the last 7 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
All telephone polls are included with equal weight. However, no Internet polls are used.
During the final two weeks of the election, only polls taken entirely within the past seven days will be included in the averages (with the same exceptions listed above, of course).
