Senate Forecast Update, October 24th

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 16:52


Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 8 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 8
State Type Democratic Republican D Cash Margin Polls
D Pickups
Virginia Open Warner Gilmore 2713% D +25.3 3
New Mexico Open T. Udall Pearce 542% D +19.0 2
Colorado Open M. Udall Schaffer 364% D +8.8 4
New Hamp. Freshman Shaheen Sununu 49% D +7.0 1
North Carolina Freshman Hagen Dole 51% D +3.2 5
Oregon Incumbent Merkley Smith 51% D +3.0 4
Minnesota Freshman Franken Coleman 70% D +2.8 5
Alaska Incumbent Begich Stevens 63% D +1.5 2
R Holds
Mississippi-B Special Musgrove Wicker 28% R +1.0 1
Georgia Freshman Martin Chambliss 8% R +2.5 6
Kentucky Incumbent Lunsford McConnell 22% R +3.8 4

Republican Held, Uncompetitive Republican Locks (12): Alabama (Sessions), Idaho (Open, Risch) Kansas (Roberts), Maine (Collins), Mississippi-A (Cochran), Nebraska (Open, Johanns), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), Wyoming-A (Barrasso), Wyoming-B (Enzi)

Democratic Held, Uncompetitive Democratic Locks (12): Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Louisiana (Landrieu), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), New Jersey (Lautenberg), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockerfeller)

Methodology and analysis in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: Senate Forecast Update, October 24th
Methodology
All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the last 14 days (October 10th). The only exceptions are campaigns where three polls did not meet that criteria. Every pollster only has one poll per average. Polls from before September are not included. Campaigns in where the incumbent party leads by double digit margins are considered "locks" and not shown in detail.

Analysis
Pretty much the same as three days ago. I obviously feel good about Colorado and New Hampshire, but really, who doesn't? With the polls, trends, and early voting all going in our direction, I also feel very good about Oregon and North Carolina.

Early voting and polling looks good in Minnesota, but the race is extremely fluid because of the very high support for a third-party candidate. That support could either crash, and then break in unpredictable ways, or it could shoot upward, and pull away support in unpredictable ways.

With the Stevens trial wrapping up, that campaign also remains in real flux. It kind of feels like the trial is the campaign. I wonder if the trial has actually helped Stevens, too, since he is too old and decrepit to really campaign at all. The trial has kept him in the spotlight, however.

I like our chances in Georgia, as Martin could rise the Obama wave of early voting and organization in the state.

Mississippi-B is also very, very close, and we already won a House seat in Mississippi earlier this year. It could really happen. A true toss-up.

I just don't think we will win Kentucky, however. Lunsford can't quite pull ahead, and is just too far down in money. The race has threatened to move into the D column three times this year, but every time McConnell has beaten back the surge. Just not feeling it here.

I am projecting eight pickups right now, but I am starting to lean toward nine. I think we can squeeze out everything on this chart except Kentucky, plus probably one more loss. What do you think?


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Yeah (0.00 / 0)
I'm still the trial is going to decide Steven's fate, and based on everything I've heard, it's not going to be a conviction. It might even be a mistrial.

If MS and GA are almost toss-ups, odds are we'll get one and lose the other. I like our chances in GA better, but I'd say we've got about a 20% chance at getting both.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!


don't tossups for electoral votes (0.00 / 0)
tend to all trend one way in landslide years. hopefully that will also prove to be true in the senate.

[ Parent ]
I almost hope for a mistrial... (0.00 / 0)
I don't have any idea of what the legal analysis is saying, but it sounds like the prosecution really screwed up earlier.  Maybe would just be better to give them a new crack at the trial... and it's unclear how a mistrial would be interpreted by the electorate.

[ Parent ]
i don't think (0.00 / 0)
a mistrial would play well for Begich. just a guess though.

[ Parent ]
Lunsford does sort of feel like the Harold Ford of this cycle... (0.00 / 0)
I thought he was a self-funder, though -- doesn't that make CoH numbers a lot less relevant? Given he can loan/give his campaign more money at a moment's notice.

Georgia will likely be a runoff either way (0.00 / 0)
Even if Martin "wins," it will be hard to get over 50%. That will mean a runoff according to Georgia law. Whether it is 49-47 in our favor, or 49-47 against, doesn't make much of a difference. And I don't like our chances in a runoff.

We Could Win a Runoff (0.00 / 0)
This is very unscientific, but I think Martin's chances in a runoff will be pretty good. The Obama honeymoon won't last long, but it will be really strong while it lasts I suspect. Between Dem enthusiasm, Rep depression, and the 'bandwagon effect' of voters wanting to be on the winning side, I think we'd have a decent shot here.

[ Parent ]
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