Methodology All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the last 14 days (October 10th). The only exceptions are campaigns where three polls did not meet that criteria. Every pollster only has one poll per average. Polls from before September are not included. Campaigns in where the incumbent party leads by double digit margins are considered "locks" and not shown in detail.
Analysis Pretty much the same as three days ago. I obviously feel good about Colorado and New Hampshire, but really, who doesn't? With the polls, trends, and early voting all going in our direction, I also feel very good about Oregon and North Carolina.
Early voting and polling looks good in Minnesota, but the race is extremely fluid because of the very high support for a third-party candidate. That support could either crash, and then break in unpredictable ways, or it could shoot upward, and pull away support in unpredictable ways.
With the Stevens trial wrapping up, that campaign also remains in real flux. It kind of feels like the trial is the campaign. I wonder if the trial has actually helped Stevens, too, since he is too old and decrepit to really campaign at all. The trial has kept him in the spotlight, however.
I like our chances in Georgia, as Martin could rise the Obama wave of early voting and organization in the state.
Mississippi-B is also very, very close, and we already won a House seat in Mississippi earlier this year. It could really happen. A true toss-up.
I just don't think we will win Kentucky, however. Lunsford can't quite pull ahead, and is just too far down in money. The race has threatened to move into the D column three times this year, but every time McConnell has beaten back the surge. Just not feeling it here.
I am projecting eight pickups right now, but I am starting to lean toward nine. I think we can squeeze out everything on this chart except Kentucky, plus probably one more loss. What do you think?