Signs Of A Tightening Race (Tightened Update)

by: Chris Bowers

Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 16:37


(Hat tip Psifighter37 in quick hits). Here is the Pollster.com national trendline from October 15th through October 26th:


As you can see, the campaign is getting much tighter. Obama's lead is growing slowly over the past eleven days, which means that the campaign is getting tighter. Don't think about that sentence, just accept it. An increasing Obama lead means the campaign is getting tighter. Plus, the Politco told me it was getting tighter:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that he can "guarantee" a win on Nov. 4 in a squeaker victory that won't be clear until late that night.

McCain spoke amid signs of a tightening race, and reports of renewed determination among his staff, which is badly outgunned in both money and manpower.

It is true. McCain's staff has renewed determination. And Obama's lead is growing, which means the campaign is getting tighter.

Tighter. Tighter, damnit. Tighter, tighter, tighter. TIGHTER!! Tighter infinity. Tighter infinity plus one. Tighter infinity plus infinity. Tighter infinity to the infinity power. And more determined staff, too.

Tighter.

Tightened Update: No campaign in history has ever gotten tighter more times than this campaign. This campaign has tightened more times than we have turned a corner in the stock market / Iraq. The movie about this campaign will be "Remember The Tightening." The team mascot is the Tampa Bay Tightening. The theme song is Tighter and Tighter by Soundgarden. The workout video is Buns of Steel. Girl, we couldn't get much tighter. Come on baby, tight my fire.

Tight tight tight: Tight
Chris Bowers :: Signs Of A Tightening Race (Tightened Update)

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Signs Of A Tightening Race (Tightened Update) | 50 comments
Hey, I can cherry-pick polls too... (0.00 / 0)
Why is McCain fading so bad?  Down 14 in Pew, 13 in CBS/NYTimes, 12 in Newsweek, and 10 in NBC/WSJ.  Going by these and discounting everything else, looks like Obama's winning by double-digits.

But I guess that storyline isn't as interesting, or as preferred, for Politico.

Tighter (0.00 / 0)
tighter tighter tighter
[ Parent ]
And the comment that (4.00 / 1)
will be repeated endlessly between now and Nov:
"Races always get closer"

This is not true, but it will be repeated everyday for the next 10 days.  

[ Parent ]
Do you believe that the final margin will still be 4%? (0.00 / 0)
ref http://www.openleft.com/showDi...


This year, I see 4% as the likely final polling margin, given that has been the average margin along the way. Now, that doesn't mean the final voting margin will equal that number, as both 2000 and 2004 deviated more than 1% from their final margins (about 1.1% in 2004, and about 3.0% in 2000). However, 4% should be enough for Obama to win in really any scenario you can dig up from that point.

Or has something changed in your view?

tighter (0.00 / 0)
I cant hear you

tighter tighter tighter

[ Parent ]
oh wait, damn right it is gettign tighter (0.00 / 0)
for a second, I thought you were one of those "it's not getting tighter" trolls.

It is getting tighter, and will continue to get much tighter. Tighter tighter tighter!

[ Parent ]
I'm sometimes slow (0.00 / 0)
But here's another possible tightening tune - from McSame's favorite Beach Boys' song -

Tight Tight Tight - Tight Tight Iran
Tight Tight Tight - Tight Tight Iran!
Tight Tight eeeeeeeran

[ Parent ]
You have to read it from right to left (0.00 / 0)

shut up shut up shut up (0.00 / 0)
tighter tighter tighter
[ Parent ]
LMAO Great Post (0.00 / 0)
speaking of tighter
seeing LIEberman butt-boy DANGERstein on MSNBC defending obama makes my throat tighter
lalalalalalalala (0.00 / 0)
fingers in my ears lalalalalala
tighter tighter tighter tighter
lalalalalalalalala
[ Parent ]
Actually I think it might be just a little (0.00 / 0)
Zogby - tighter
Kos - tighter
Rasmussen - steady (but the sample is a touch more D today)
Hotline - McCain down (but the sample is more D today)
Gallup - tighter if you believe young voters won't vote though they say they will
TIPP - tighter

More likely it is just Saturday polling which has a history of being worse for Obama.

Finally, someone sensible (0.00 / 0)
Damn right it is getting tighter. Larger Obama leads = tightening.
[ Parent ]
*turns on iTunes...* (0.00 / 0)
and plays "Tighter & Tighter" from Soundgarden

(from the Down on the Upside album, for those who want to know)

Excellent song (0.00 / 0)
It should be the theme song of this campaign.

This campaign has gotten tighter almost as many times as we have turned a corner in Iraq / the economy. This is the tightest campaign ever. Or, at least, it is the campaign that tightens more than any other campaign.

[ Parent ]
The only problem with that is... (0.00 / 0)
...that the former members of Soundgarden would most likely say no to John McCain, à la Heart, Jackson Brown, et al.
[ Parent ]
INXS (4.00 / 1)
[ Parent ]
Politico cited Zogby as evidence the race was tightening (0.00 / 0)
Which is why having this hack out there is a very bad thing.
bad thing? (0.00 / 0)
anyone who shows it is getting tighter is a true American patriot genius glowing master.

tighter tighter tighter.

[ Parent ]
Careful, Chris. (4.00 / 1)
I think there is some possibility that you may turn into a sphincter.
[ Parent ]
ABC = tighter (0.00 / 0)
I Know! (4.00 / 4)
I talked to a coworker who said his brother's father-in-law from somewhere in South Carolina was reading RedState yesterday and they have evidence that all the of the polls - ALL of them - have been cooked by the media elite to give Barack Hussein Obama the lead. And oh yeah, Barack was born in Kenya, is a closet socialist and will sneak into your house at night and steal a chocolate chip cookie if he's elected. It's true. He read it on the Internet.    
Tell him the election is Nov 5th for GOP voters (0.00 / 0)
And that oxygen is available at the local pharmacy.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton
[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure (0.00 / 0)
he's also a gay coke head.

And just today I saw something about him being a "diaper wearer". But I don't know if that was supposed to be literal or metaphorical.  

[ Parent ]
OMG (0.00 / 0)
...and will sneak into your house at night and steal a chocolate chip cookie if he's elected.

Barack Obama is Santa Claus! I knew it!

[ Parent ]
Their game plan (4.00 / 1)
What's scary is that regardless of what the polls actually indicate, this is the usual Rebublican game plan for stealing the election. They've done it before, and they're trying to do it again.

They convince people that the race is tight, (and the media happily play along for their own selfish reasons), and then when the election is stolen there will be minimum outrage because hey, the race was so tight at the end. Even with massive Dem turnout, it may not be enough to overcome all the people purged from the voter rolls, especially in keys states like Colorado.

It's all about preparing the nation for a McCain victory. And we need to spell that out now before the election so folks don't just roll over if it happens again. The "tight race" is simply setting up the key post-election talking point if voter suppression steals it away from Obama. (Just like the big ACORN lie is a key talking point to discredit Obama's victory if he wins).

Tighter (0.00 / 0)
Finally, a sense of humor. Relax but don't be complacent especially with Republican voter suppression operations.
MO also "tight" (0.00 / 0)
Another politico reporter says:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Tighten Up! (4.00 / 4)


"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
Damn, Paul, you beat me to it. (0.00 / 0)
Oh well.

sTiVo's rule: Just because YOU "wouldn't put it past 'em" doesn't prove that THEY did it.
[ Parent ]
electoral-vote (0.00 / 0)
Oct 15: O357, M181

Oct 26: O375, M157

Definitely tightening.  The House better gear up to decide this thing.  Better start phone-banking Red states with Democratic delegations to make sure they pick Obama.

It's tighter because of... (4.00 / 1)
...Joe the Poll Tightener.

"Don't take much, does it, elected Democrats, to get your balls tucked up." Cf.
Does that make McCain candidate Tightey Whitey? (0.00 / 0)
And his campaign Men (and Some Women!) in Tights?

Do they hang out at the Tightey Bowl?

Man, that's some Tight Asses!

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

Obama picks up 1.3 EV from yesterday at 538 (0.00 / 0)
Love it! The "tighter" mantra.. (0.00 / 0)

Now that it has gotten all tight and shit (4.00 / 1)
It's worth asking:

WHY ISN'T OBAMA WINNING BY MORE?!?!

Bravo! (0.00 / 0)
I especially liked the Tightened Update.

Though I'm surprised it took so long in the comments for a mention of Archie Bell and the Drells.  

Sorry, I Had Other Priorities (0.00 / 0)
Working on my last diary for the day, and didn't even see that Chris had posted this!

But, I promise you, it was the first thing that crossed my mind once I saw the diary.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Hahaha (4.00 / 2)
One of the funniest posts you have ever written Chris, especially when taking all your comments into consideration. Really man, great work.

On a more serious note though, this is probably a sort of good thing. Lowering expectations means that more Democrats will get out to vote, scared that the race is close. It will also make a big Obama victory, which is looking more and more likely, even better in the narrative (of course, assuming the traditional media goes by a consistent standard on its narrative building, which we can't always assume).

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008

definitely getting tighter (4.00 / 1)
Well.. Arizona, Georgia, Montana, and North Dakota are definitely getting tighter!

On a more serious note, it's not such a bad thing that the media is hellbent on painting the race as getting tighter. If they were reporting what the polls really say, we would be hearing about why isn't Obama's landslide bigger and will he carry as many states as Reagan did in 1980?  

I know it would take a monumental effort (0.00 / 0)
But would be great to start a database for predictions gone wrong by the chattering class this year.  (I know Media Matters follows a lot of this)
I hate to spoil the comedy routine with a real question (0.00 / 0)
But seriously, folks, isn't the conventional wisdom - based purely on historical data - that the race is likely to tighten at least a little in the last week?

I'm not suggesting it changes the result, or even staves off a landslide; but aren't most of you expecting - as I am - that some legitimate, though perhaps insignificant, tightening will ultimately occur?

Perhaps this would be suitable in a different diary? (0.00 / 0)
Chris expounded seriously on this question in http://www.openleft.com/showDi... -

But for now,

lalalalalalalala
fingers in my ears lalalalalala
tighter tighter tighter tighter
lalalalalalalalala

[ Parent ]
Hey Now! (0.00 / 0)
The word 'tight' is a privilege, not a right.
McCain "Guarantees It" (0.00 / 0)
Probably bc of the vote switching already being reported.

here comes another stolen election.

bradblog.com

He didn't say that (0.00 / 0)
He "guarenteed" it would be close. He only said he "believed" he would win.
[ Parent ]
zogby (0.00 / 0)
I doubt Zogby will tighten anymore in tonight's poll since Drudge hasn't said anything.
Calls for a little bit of Archie Bell and the Drells (0.00 / 0)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dgK86pVBAs&feature=related

Couldn't resist.

See, the RATE of Obama's lead growth is slowing so that's a tightening up.


sTiVo's rule: Just because YOU "wouldn't put it past 'em" doesn't prove that THEY did it.

I'm afraid the only thing tighter.... (4.00 / 1)
....are the fingers in McCain supporter's ears, while closing their eyes and screeching "La-la-la!!!  Can't hear you!"

Ah, well.  Back to the phones.

The tightening is entirely in the McCain gang's sphincters.... (0.00 / 0)
They're going to need an awful lot of laxatives, come November 5....

"A fantasy is not even a wish, much less an act.  There is no such thing as a culpable or shameful fantasy."  -----Lady Sally McGee
Signs Of A Tightening Race (Tightened Update) | 50 comments
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