Obama to Be First Democrat in 44 Years to Get a National Majority

by: Matt Stoller

Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 19:35


Even though Clinton is perceived as a popular and somewhat successful Presidency, it's worth remembering that he did not in fact garner more than 50% of the vote either election.  In 1992, he weirdly snuck in due to immense dissatisfaction with Bush and a weird nativist/populist Perot movement, and in 1996, he still couldn't garner 50% against a decrepit Bob Dole in a strengthening economy.  Yes, Clinton had a majority Democratic Congress from 1992-1994, but he never actually had a real governing mandate from the public.

The last Democrat to win 50% of the electorate was Jimmy Carter in 1976, in an environment so bad for the Republicans that Common Cause had a bigger budget than the RNC.  Even so, Carter's margin was incredibly slender, winning 50% of the vote to Ford's 48%, with 2% going to a third party candidate.  You'd have to go back to 1964 to find a Democratic President win with more than 50% of the vote, and that was Lyndon Johnson destroying Barry Goldwater.

It's not just that this Congress will be more progressive than any we've had since that time, the public will have firmly ratified a Democratic President and given him a mandate since 1964.  This is territory most of us (and most of the pundits) don't remember or understand.  The public has firmly placed its trust in the Democratic Party to lead the country, which means that expectations are high.  But so are the new levers of power which Obama and the Democratic Congress will wield.

Trust in politics matters.  And it looks like a majority of the country will pull the lever for a Democrat and imbue the party with that trust for the first time in two generations.

Get ready.  It's gonna get weird.

.... And yes, I'm getting 'ahead' of myself.  But come on, it's just one blog post.  I'll make for it by canvassing.

... And the Republican IE unit is putting up ads in Montana.  I mean.  It's not over but, well, you know.

Matt Stoller :: Obama to Be First Democrat in 44 Years to Get a National Majority

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Aren't you getting a bit ahead of yourself there, Matt? (4.00 / 3)
Optimism is great, but, we still haven't won anything... Let's not spike the ball on the two yard line!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


Clinton would have won easily in '92 (4.00 / 2)
with or w/o Perot, him winning based on Perot is a GOP myth. We were 20 points ahead before Perot got back in, and exit polls showed clearly that the Perot would have split about 50/50 Clinton/Bush if he hadn't been in the race.

Probably 25/25/50 (0.00 / 0)
Half of Perot voters probably would have otherwise been non-voters.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

[ Parent ]
Agreed but... (4.00 / 1)
Remember Perot came out the weekend before the election in 1992 and accused Bush the First of trying to disrupt his [Perot's] daughter's wedding -- strange but true!

We could argue about historical what ifs -- I do think Perot helped Clinton -- but I think Matt's point is sound, this is shaping up to be the biggest Democratic mandate since 1964 and equal to the Republican mandate of 1980.


[ Parent ]
People seem to forget (0.00 / 0)
that Perot also ran in 96 and got eight percent of the vote (more than 8 million votes), with which Clinton would've cleared 50.

[ Parent ]
Absolutely correct Mike (4.00 / 1)
From the time Perot withdrew,  during the Democratic convention, Bill Clinton and Al Gore had poll numbers in the high 50's.  If Perot had not reenteed the race, Bill clinton would have won by the largest margin of any Democrat since Johnson.

It indeed was a Republican myth.  One the MSM kept propagating. Thus depriving and undermining the first Democratic president in a long time.  That was the point.  If we had had a left, progressive media like we have now in the blogosphere, that would not have been allowed to happen.

The valid case would have been made that Clinton-Gore had a very large popular mandate.  Those, like Bob Dole and Colin Powell ( on gays in the military)  who wanted to challenge them would not have had the temerity to do so.  Bill Clinton would have had more political momentum and political power, and probably have had a more successful, progressive presidency.    

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller


[ Parent ]
right you are, deb (4.00 / 1)
The first words out of Dole's mouth in 1992 were "it's not a mandate."  In 1996 he ran on "where's the outrage, America?" and got crushed, and I was glad.  Perot kept Clinton from 50 percent in 1996 and from a rout in 1992; the GOP used it.  But this time they can all pucker up ...  

[ Parent ]
Tense (4.00 / 2)
I don't like seeing these things written in a past tense as if they've already happened. I'll be nervous until McCain concedes and calls off his lawyers.

Straight-ticket disasters (0.00 / 0)
It seems there are some states where unless the voter indicates a vote for Obama first, i.e., before voting a straight Democratic ticket, the vote for president doesn't register at all.

We had some warning of this "glitch" in Illinois, tho' on the touch-screen early voting machine I used, I saw no way to vote a straight ticket. Now, there are signs of the problem elsewhere, as on Huffington Post tonight.


According to a comment... (4.00 / 1)
below the post, the ballot in North Carolina separates the presidential candidates from the rest of the races, so it's more the fault of the thousands (!) of early voters who don't understand!

[ Parent ]
Hippie Exorcism (0.00 / 0)
Better than any B movie, if what Matt and so many others are saying indeed proves true, the Democratic Party will have gone a long way towards getting past the demons of 1968.

One word of warning for you, Matt: McConnell (4.00 / 4)
Mitch McConnell, the Repugnicant Senate Minority Leader from Kentucky, managed more filibusters in the past session of Congress than at any other time in history. This with a Republican President and a Democratic majority in the Senate. Imagine what he will do with a Democratic President and a Democratic majority. Much, much more of the same. Every day! Every issue that matters to us! All the time! Without end for the next 4 years! There is absolutely NO VICTORY WHATSOEVER IN THIS ELECTION WITHOUT THE DEFEAT OF McConnell and enough other Repugnicant Senators to give Democrats a WORKING majority. There MUST be 60 Democratic senators or the game is still deadlocked, and absolutely nothing can be accomplished. This cannot be stressed enough! Electing enough Senators has to be our goal for the next week - not gloating nor counting our chickens before they are hatched.

60 votes (4.00 / 1)
While 60 votes are important on a bill by bill basis, there is no inherent partisan advantage to having any more than the 51 votes necessary to control the senate itself.  

Of course, Democrats will be well served to have as many seats as possible, but 60 votes doesn't assure that there won't be filibusters.    


[ Parent ]
60 votes means you can vote cloture, (4.00 / 1)
which means debate stops.  I'm pretty sure that includes filibusters.

[ Parent ]
I should have said (4.00 / 1)
60 Democratic senators confers no inherent advantage.

[ Parent ]
Campaign Money Watch (0.00 / 0)
Asks for support to help keep their ad on the air. "Big Money Mitch" is the name of the website and the ad stresses "Clout."


[ Parent ]
Yay Lunsford. (4.00 / 1)
   Yes, Lunsford ALONE will bring us our progressive majority.  Lunsford is even worse than Harold Ford.  If McConnell wasn't so awful, I'd have trouble caring about this race.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

[ Parent ]
Only thing wrong with that thought (4.00 / 1)
is that I don't believe Lunsford is anything close to a progressive.  I'd sure like to see Mitch bite it, though.

[ Parent ]
If things hold out (4.00 / 1)
and look like they do in the polls now but with breaks towards Democrats in close races this will be the biggest Democratic win since 64 for sure and one of the largest Democratic wins in history.

Johnson squandered the opportunity by being stubborn and not listening to people. I don't think Obama will make the same mistake.  

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power


I was watching the "presidents" series on PBS today... (4.00 / 1)
...and it was on LBJ... so, many similarities to Bush on his stubbornness on the war and how it really brought him down...  

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
Lyndon Johnson on Vietnam: (4.00 / 1)
"It became clear that if we were prepared to stay the course, would could help lay the cornerstone for a diverse and independent region.  If we faltered, the forces of chaos would smell victory and decades of strife and aggression would stretch endlessly before us.  The choice was clear: we would stay the course, and we shall stay the course."

[ Parent ]
"It's not over but..." (0.00 / 0)
The fat lady has entered stage left? And now has one eye on the conductor?

According to Wikipedia... (4.00 / 1)
...Carter's popular vote percentage in 1976 was 50.1%  That seems "over 50%" to me.
 

Do people have a clue about history? (0.00 / 0)
Ross Perot was the strongest third-party candidate in contemporary US history.  He deprived Clinton of the majority of the votes twice.  Clinton definitely would have won a majority of those votes in 1996.  More ominously for the Democrats, however, no Democrat has won a majority of WHITE votes in 44 years, and it is unclear that Obama is going to do so.  Current polls show him trailing among white voters in general.  

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