(Dark Blue (291): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (47): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (43): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (26): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more)
Targeting and Swing State Chart States not shown here are further in either direction
I am going to try something different today. This is what the polling picture looks like at 2:00 a.m. eastern, before any of today's polls come out. I will continue to update it during the day, as new polls come out. We'll see how this goes.
Analysis and methodology in the extended entry.
Update (12:30 p.m.): New Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania polls added.
Update 2 (2 p.m.): New Colorado, Indiana, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin polls added.
Methodology The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls with the entirety of their interviews conducted within the last 8 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. My rationale for this methodology is based on research I conducted back in June, which you can read here. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
Every state has at least two polls. In the event that less than two polls were taken within the past week, the two most recent polls are used. (Note: "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/15-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/16. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point (within 0.5), all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.)
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last 8 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
All telephone polls are included with equal weight. However, no Internet polls are used.
Analysis A lot of poll watchers, myself included, tend to obsess over the daily fluctuations in the national tracking polls. The rationale for doing so is, on its surface understandable: tracking the day to day movement in the campaign. However, almost every single day, there are actually more state polls than national polls. Since we poll obsessives all have a pretty good idea of the partisan leanings of a given state relative to the nation as a whole, wouldn't it stand to reason that state polls are actually a better measurement of where the campaign stands?
My presidential forecast uses only state polls. According to my forecast, Obama first reached 270+ entirely among solid states back on October 9th. Since that time, with the exception of October 24th, Obama has passed 270 electoral votes entirely in states where he has led by 7.0% or more. In other words, according to state polling, with the exception of October 24th, Obama's national lead has not dropped below 7.0% since October 9th.
This is an extremely valuable metric, because the state polling picture utilizes far more polls than even the eight-poll tracker average. For example, the list of state polls above includes 55 polls that were conducted entirely within the past week, and all of the state polls released today will be added to it. That far exceeds the number of polls and number of interviews used in any national poll. This large number of polls has put Obama's lead between 7.0% and 8.0% for 17 of the last 19 days (one day was at 8.3% and one was at 6.0%), indicating a rather remarkable amount of stability in the campaign.
Maybe the trackers and the state polls today will show some sort of continued tightening, but it is going to take a lot of polls to convince me the campaign is closer than 7.0% right now. One Rasmussen or Zogby national poll is nothing compared to the six swing state polls each firm released within the past 36 hours. Six polls are more than one, just as fifty-five state polls are more than eight trackers. Obama's lead just isn't wavering at all in the swing states, as he passed 270 in states where he leads by 7.1% or more yet again. When that shrinks, then I will agree the campaign is tightening.
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