Update (2:00 p.m.): Five new Pennsylvania polls, four new Ohio polls, two new Florida polls, plus one new poll each from Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin added. Obama drops slightly in Florida, holds steady in Ohio, and improves everywhere else.
As with yesterday, I am posting the Presidential forecast early in the morning, and I will update during the day as new polls come in. Right now, except where you see asterisks, it only includes polls taken entirely after October 21st. I have to say, I have never seen a campaign that has ben tightening for so long that makes me so damn confident of victory.
Methodology The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls with the entirety of their interviews conducted within the last 8 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. My rationale for this methodology is based on research I conducted back in June, which you can read here. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
Every state has at least two polls. In the event that less than two polls were taken within the past week, the two most recent polls are used. (Note: "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/15-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/16. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point (within 0.5), all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.)
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last 8 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
All telephone polls are included with equal weight. However, no Internet polls are used.
Analysis Obama still goes over the top with states where he leads by 8.0% or more, which is only 0.3% off his highest lead the entire campaign. Texas is closer than New Hampshire. South Dakota is closer than Pennsylvania. Georgia is closer than Ohio. Arizona and Florida are equally close.
Do I really need to add any more analysis than that? Tightening, my ass. State polling continues to show a clear Obama victory.