Will Most Georgians Have Voted Before Election Day Arrives?

by: tremayne

Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 10:53


Through last night a quarter of all registered voters in Georgia had already cast their ballots. The state has just under 5.6 million registered voters and so far about 1.4 million have voted.

In 2004, a year which saw much higher turnout nationally than in recent decades, about 3.3 million Georgia residents voted. It's hard to say if overall turnout will be significantly higher because, while we know African American turnout will be huge, Republican voters may be less enthusiastic than they were in 2004. Let's say turnout this year hits 3.4 million. With three days of early voting left, including today, it seems reasonable to predict that half or slightly more than half (1.7 million?) of all voters who will cast ballots will have done so before November 4.

Of the 1.4 million early voters, African Americans comprise 35 percent. This is impressive since the group makes up only 19 29 percent of the electorate. 

Another way to look at it: 30 percent of African American registered voters have already voted while about 23.6 percent of White registered voters have voted early. These figures include mail-in absentee ballots.

tremayne :: Will Most Georgians Have Voted Before Election Day Arrives?

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Correction (0.00 / 0)
I think you mean African Americans make up 29% of the electorate. I've been following these numbers... Over the past few days, the percentage of the early voters who are black has declined slightly (down to about 35.2% from 35.6% or so earlier), but white turnout has remained flat (60.6%). "Others" (including Hispanics, Asians and those who decline to state their race) have increased slightly to 3.6%.

My spreadsheet meshing these numbers with polling cross-tabs still shows Obama winning 49.7-47.8 and Jim Martin winning 50.7-44.9.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!


yes, 29% (0.00 / 0)
fixed it.

Obviously the outcome in Georgia will depend on how much McCain & Chambliss win Nov. 4 voters by since they will certainly be trailing among the early voters.


[ Parent ]
This sounds like very good news (0.00 / 0)
Obama winning Georgia - DELICIOUS.

Martin beating Champliss = 60.      


Yeah baby (0.00 / 0)
I'm getting more comfortable with the 59+Lieberman scenario (that assumes, of course, that Franken, Hagan, etc. hold on). Lieberman or somebody would fill out 60 on things like labor, Snowe or Collins would meet the 60 on choice (our nominally pro-life Dem Senators might vote the wrong way, but wouldn't vote for filibuster), one of those two or Lieberman or somebody would be persuadable on most environmental issues, Dick Lugar or somebody would cooperate on the war, any Republican from a blue state (if there are any left, har har har) would cooperate on big Obama policy initiatives like his tax plan to avoid seeming to obstruct a popular new president, particularly if they're up for re-election in 2010. Given current polling, that could be a lot of states. :-)

Keeping together 40 senators out of 50+Lieberman for a filibuster has been hard enough. Even given the more strident party unity with Republicans, and the desire to push back against a united Democratic front, they're going to have a hard time keeping 40 out of 40+Lieberman together for very many cloture votes. 8-10 pickups is going to make a huge difference.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!


[ Parent ]
What about North Carolina? (0.00 / 0)
Could the same be said for North Carolina? I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the week 2 million people have voted there and the black turnout is at around 28%.

What will take for Obama to win? (0.00 / 0)
Has anyone calculated what kind of turnout of the registered black vote is needed to make it possible for Obama to win in GA? 70%? 80%? 90%? TIA.

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