Methodology All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the last 13 days (October 17th). The only exceptions are campaigns where two polls did not meet that criteria. Every pollster only has one poll per average. Polls from before September are not included. Campaigns in where the incumbent party leads by double digit margins are considered "locks" and not shown in detail.
Starting on Thursday, the range of dates for included polls will drop by one per day. So, that means 13 days ago on Thursday, 12 days ago on Friday, 11 days ago on Saturday, etc. The final Senate projection on Election Day will target the same date range and methodology as the Presidential forecast.
Analysis Alaska becomes a safe pickup due to the Stevens conviction, but Minnesota moves into "Republican Hold" and Mississippi-B becomes "Safe Republican." With eight pickups needed in order to secure The Employee Free Choice Act, one of the four progressive positive feedback loops (media reform, election reform and immigration reform are the other three), is in trouble. We need to win Georgia (run-off likely), Kentucky (not likely) or Minnesota (still very doable). Of course, we also need to hold onto North Carolina and Oregon.