Obama Wins!!! (Updated)

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 03:18

( - promoted by Chris Bowers)

Barack Obama has won the 2008 Presidential Election.

Yes, you read that right. And no, I am not joking.

People will probably say that I am calling the election too early, which could depress turnout. People might say that I am taking too much for granted, which is especially bad for a committeeperson in West Philadelphia. People might say that I am simply being foolish, because there is time left and a lot can change in four days. For these people, I have five quick points (more in the extended entry).

Chris Bowers :: Obama Wins!!! (Updated)
Here is why this is over:

  1. In order to win the election, all Barack Obama needs are the Kerry states, plus Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. That adds up to 273 electoral votes.

  2. Obama leads by at least 9.5% in every Kerry state and Iowa, according to both Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics. Also, my own numbers concur with those calculations.

  3. This means that in order to win the election, all Obama has to do is hold onto states where he leads by 9.5% or more, and win both Colorado and New Mexico. These are both states where more than half of all voters will cast their ballots before Election Day (source). In other words, the elections in Colorado and New Mexico are already almost over, not just beginning. And these are the only two states he needs to win, other than the ones where he leads by double-digits.

  4. In Colorado, about 60% of the vote is already in. According to the crosstabs of the three most recent polls in the state, Obama leads early voters by 15% (Rasmussen), 18% (Marist) and 17% (PPP). Even in the best case scenario for McCain, where he only trails by 15% among those who have already voted and only 55% of the vote is in, he still needs to win the remaining voters by 18.4% in order to eek out the state. And that is the best-case scenario. The worst case scenario for McCain--65% of the vote in and an 18% deficit among early voters--is that he needs to win the remaining voters by 33.5% in order to win the election.

  5. That leaves New Mexico. In 2004, New Mexico had an even higher rate of early voting than Colorado (50.6% to 47.9%). Further, all polling aggregation sites show Obama's lead to be larger in New Mexico than in Colorado. While the recent dearth of polling in the Land of Enchantment means there are no early voting crosstabs, those two facts suggest the situation is even worse for McCain in New Mexico than in Colorado. At the very least, it isn't much better. Update: A new poll from PPP in New Mexico indicates that 56% of the vote is in, and Obama leads 64%-36% among those voters. If that is accurate, McCain would have to win the remaining voters by 35.7%.

So, unless Obama one of the following occurs:

  • Obama blows a double-digit lead in either Iowa or one Kerry state
  • McCain wins the minority of remaining voters in either Colorado or New Mexico by at least 20%
Then the election is over and Obama has won no matter what happens anywhere else.

If people wonder why Obama has recently campaigned in seemingly safe states like Iowa and Pennsylvania, this is why. The only possible way he can lose at this point is if he blows one of those states. In this situation, if I were making the decisions, I would have him campaign there, too.

This has me very, very excited. Barack Obama is going to be the next President of the United States. He is effectively ahead by double-digits right now, and leads like that don't disappear in four days. Obama wins!

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Though I'd probably still vote. (4.00 / 23)
Just in case...

Help support "CRASHING THE STATES"--a Netroots Film!

Ok, Chris (4.00 / 4)
Obama blows a double-digit lead in either Iowa or one Kerry state

Like Pennsylvania? Just kidding. Now go outside, run around the building three times, curse and spit.

Seriously, I want to crush McCain. How do you feel about OH, FL, NC and IN?

I thought it was curse? (0.00 / 0)
Spit and curse. Just go.

We don't want the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.

[ Parent ]
Regarding the Senate (4.00 / 2)
Jennifer Duffy is projecting a 8-10 seat in the senate over at the Cook Report. I briefly echanged emails with her about Minnesota and she said that she does not buy the Rasmussen or Mason-Dixon results. She did not elaborate further but she did say Barkley could be a wildcard and we'll have to wait and see how the news of the $75k plays out. I think she knows more about Franken's chances than she wanted to say.    

Hold Your Cards! (4.00 / 2)
Things are about to change dramatically in the Minnesota race.

A Texas businessman has filed a lawsuit alleging that Minnesota multimillionaire Nasser Kazeminy used his Houston marine company to funnel $75,000 to Sen. Norm Coleman last year via a Minneapolis insurance company that employs the senator's wife.

It's clear now that Coleman's defamation suit against Franken yesterday was filed as a distraction before this information was released.

A news conference is scheduled for this morning.

[ Parent ]
Plus Blodgett's driving a huge Obama GOTV effort in MN (4.00 / 2)
which can only help the downticket races.  The Kerry 2004 GOTV effort in Minnesota was MASSIVE.  I've heard it's double that now. Same players essentially running both.  

[ Parent ]
I hope you are right, but Chris Bowers at MyDD had Kerry 291 Bush 247 (4.00 / 2)
on Nov. 1, 2004, according to this source:


I think we still have to work and vote and all that.

And I was wrong (4.00 / 8)
Back then, I did all sorts of weird stuff, like allocate 85% of the undecideds to Kerry and use 2004 results as the equivalent of a poll. It was stupid. Didn't work. This year, I'm laying off the special sauce.I did so two years ago, too, and my forecasts were the best ones around. Only, back in 2006, most of my readers said I was being too conservative.

[ Parent ]
Chris Bowers is a Flip Flopper (4.00 / 20)
He was FOR the Special Sauce before he was against it.  How can we trust his forecasts when he tries to "learn" from the past?  Chris Bowers.  He just doesn't get it.

Plus, he's a socialist.

Paid for by Joe the Plumber 2010 presidential committee.

"There is no god!"

Republicans can't fix our country; they're too busy saddlebacking.

[ Parent ]
and Bowers knows Obama (0.00 / 0)
so, here's more proof that Obama is a flip-flopper and socialist and Marxist and commie and...

Now, let's get crackin' on the GOTV efforts. Now. I can't imagine the heartbreak of Obama suddenly losing this election, seeing it go up in smoke liek 2004 did. Let's keep in mind that polling - even exit polling - doesn't necessarily produce the same results as all of those wonderful Diebold machines do.

We need to win the Kerry states plus a couple more with more than a 5% margin. I'm not willing to say this is a done deal until Wednesday morning. (and fergawdsake, I hope the election results are finalized by then!)

[ Parent ]
Special Sauce (0.00 / 0)
You mean you're not going to give us stuff to create SHOCK PROJECTIONS!?  Obama 538 ftw?

That's not change we can believe in, Chris.

[ Parent ]
that says almost as much about the net (0.00 / 0)
than it does about you. The learning curb has been steep.

[ Parent ]
This is a completely different situation (4.00 / 4)
Kerry's leads were nowhere nearly as large as Obama's in these states.

I can't see much evidence from state polling to support a race closer than 5 points.  Last Friday I posted in a comment that there had been a number of instances of 5 point moves or larger in the last 10 days of a race.

But that was a week ago.  If I look at history late swings they tend to start 10 days out, not 5.  For example, '68, '76 and '88 all showed significant movement late, but that movement was obvious well before 5 days out.  The only real instance I can find of movement that began this late was 1980.  In 1980 there was a debate the Tuesday before the election, and a major foreign policy event on the weekend before the election (having to do with hostages).  It would events of a similar magnitude to effect this race.  

Past performance is not proof of future results as they say, but Obama chances of winning at this point look overwhelming.    

[ Parent ]
Thank you! (4.00 / 4)
Chris, you know I think you are the best, but sometimes I want to smack you upside your head!  

We haven't won crap yet... NOTHING!  The GOP isn't going to go home quietly...  they've still got a few tricks up their sleeve, many of them very ugly...

Instead of celebrating early, figure out a way to run up the score... (if you believe we've won, which I don't just yet)

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
And to think... (4.00 / 2)
I just gave Obama another $30 (don't worry, I also gave to a bunch of other candidates... and have given 3 or 4 times this week exclusively to other candidates this week already).  I mean, how could I resist when he sends me an e-mail saying that they're behind the RNC in COH? =)

They asked for $100 though... I thought $30 was enough for now. =)

No no no (4.00 / 6)
Bad ju ju! Bad bad bad. Knock on wood, run outside, curse spit etc. Sacrifice a cow, throw salt behind your back, throw your laptop behind your back. Leave an offering to Jesus, Muhammad, Vishnu, St. Thomas Moore, Zeus,  the aliens, Chris Matthews and Paris Hilton.

What are you trying to do here Chris??!?!

What I am trying to do (4.00 / 2)
"What are you trying to do here Chris??!?!"

Be honest. Be an analyst. Same as I always have.

This is an honest analysis. And I happen to think it is a pretty damn good one.

[ Parent ]
Lol (0.00 / 0)
Its really late and maybe I'm not as funny as I think or maybe its really late and you're not getting my sarcasm.

The analysis is fine I just enjoy my irrational superstitions.

[ Parent ]
Your home state will doom us all!!! (4.00 / 1)
No early voting?!?  Are you kidding?  Clearly Obama is going to lose 10 points overnight there and we'll all be screwed come election day, despite good polls in VA, OH, NV, and NC which all make up for it anyway.  How dare you.

[ Parent ]
HA! (4.00 / 3)
You don't get to decide whether your "analysis" is a good one, your readers do. And while I'd say it's a good educated guess based on the numbers, it's very irresponsible.

However it may just be the wording, you could have titled it "Prediction: Obama wins xxx McCain xxx". Calling the election before it takes place is something you will stop doing eventually.

[ Parent ]
Please, (4.00 / 2)
Lighten up.  I sincerely doubt that anyone reading Open Left is going to kick back and say "hey I WAS going to dedicate the next 5 days to GOTV, but now that CHRIS BOWERS has said this is in the bag, I'm going to sit on my sofa and drink beer instead.  Hell, why even vote myself?"

(Not to mention the Senate, House, and state-level races.)

I think Open Left readers will be able to determine intelligent courses of action regardless of Chris's wording.  IMHO.

Personally, I love the headline, and can't wait to see more just like it.

Republicans can't fix our country; they're too busy saddlebacking.

[ Parent ]
Actually, I just said that (4.00 / 2)
I literally spoke those words out loud as I cracked open a beer and tore up my voter registration card.

[ Parent ]
I don't think people are worried about practical repercussions-- (0.00 / 0)
Mostly just bad mojo over celebrating early.

You owe it to yourself to listen to This American Life's fantastic and common-sense explanation of the economic crisis.

[ Parent ]
Don't mind us too much, Chris... (0.00 / 0)
I've been promoting you to all my less web-centric fans of the hardcore EV "card counting" variety, and they agree with me that you're one of the best this cycle.

We're just paranoid as hell until Obama has his hand on that Bible in DC in January 2009.  Bear with us in the meantime.

(Off to church to light come candles, followed by buying a 20 lb bag of salt to throw over my shoulder all weekend...)

[ Parent ]
"has his hand on that Koran," you mean? (0.00 / 0)
(While not wearing a flag pin, with his other hand over his butt instead of his heart, as he intersperses lines of the Pledge with "e-i-e-i-o"...)

You owe it to yourself to listen to This American Life's fantastic and common-sense explanation of the economic crisis.

[ Parent ]
But what about computer fraud? (0.00 / 0)
Has some progressive organization developed a strategy for what we do if come election night McCain is declared the winner. We need to be able to quickly gather evidence and assess whether his election is legitimate or fraud. Statistical analysis of how voting in different precincts and states compares to polling data should provide pretty good evidence for those expert in these methods. For example if polls are quite accurate in most places but significantly off in others this would point to fraud. But unfortunately this would not necessarily get significant traction among the general public or the media, and probably even far from a consensus view in the netroots.

I do not think a stolen election is likely, especially since it would probably require stealing a half dozen states. But I think it is very unfortunate that we are still in a situation where it is not possible to have a high confidence in a vote which deviates significantly from polling. Any voting without paper backups cannot be recounted and even where we have backup we rarely have any decent auditing. We progressives have been very remiss (and I include myself in this) in not having a good strategy worked out for dealing with this scenario and being able to effectively fight against a stolen election.

I know their are groups like BlackBoxVoting.org which are going to be looking carefully at the results but there is no plan ore even consensus in the netroots that we should be ready to quickly mobilize about this. In fact the vast majority of people seem ready to just conclude that whatever the announced totals are would be legitimate.

I just started worrying about this recently and wrote a last minute diary on Daily Kos suggesting we contribute money for post-election polling starting as soon as polls close. But that diary did not generate much interest.

Has anyone thought seriously about this issue and developed some plans?

Not likely in a landslide (4.00 / 4)
Obama is up by too much for it to get stolen and massive widespread computer fraud is verging on conspiracy theory.  Fraud and suppression works in close states like Ohio 2004 or Florida 2000 when a couple thousand votes here and there are enough to tip the balance.

Congress has been very resistant to paper trails and other safeguard measures for some reason.  Hopefully that will change with the next administration.

[ Parent ]
Not likely but possible (0.00 / 0)
I'm not sure that all that many people would have to be involved. The key question is whether a lot of states use the same software for handling the networking portion of the computers that do the central tabulation of votes (I don't know the answer to that). If so you would need a single programmer who was currently working on that software who had put in a "back-door" to allow a hacker to remotely change the vote totals (and had also written a separate program to execute the hack on a remote computer); and you would need one person in each state to be hacked who would tap the line from the central tablulator site and attach a computer that ran that software. There would not have to be any involvement in that case by anyone at any polling site or by anyone at the central tabulating site.

Sure it would be a surprise that a number of states voted against the polls. But what would be done about it? If most people, and the media, believed the vote was legitimate then even if some people protested the result would stand. Its happened hundreds of times in numerous states (the Chambliss-Cleland race in Georgia is one example) and there was surprise but no protests.

Two good resources are Bev Harris' book which can be read at BlackBoxVoting.org, and the series of interviews with Stephen Spoonamore at VelvetRevolution.us (or on youtube).

[ Parent ]
In event of stolen election: (4.00 / 3)
Occupy Washington DC until the fraud is put right.

Should have happened in 2000.

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

[ Parent ]
You are SO right! (0.00 / 0)
... Should have happened in 2000!  Some of us are still capable of that (e.g., those of us born before MLKJr was assassinated).  Not sure about the new netrooters.  

[ Parent ]
It would take ALL kind of activists (0.00 / 0)
Those occupying the streets and parks, those feeding them, those providing communications, those negotiating with the government.

I'd like to suggest that we seriously consider trying to force Cheney and Bush to resign (regardless of who wins the election, BTW) just after the election.  In this time of crisis, why should we have to wait to change the administration?  We had to rush into Iraq. We had to rush the bank bail-out. Why not rush the Bush League out the door?  Here's how: Cheney resigns. Bush appoints President Elect VP and congress OKs. Bush resigns. New President appoints running mate as VP. Case closed.

Its a crisis, right?  

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

[ Parent ]
Sorry, But For People Like Me (4.00 / 9)
who are emotionally scarred for life by memories of election nights 2000 and 2004, I won't believe it until Wednesday.

It won't be over (4.00 / 3)
Until they pry Darth Cheney from his undisclosed location on January 20th, 2009, and send him back to Helliburton.

[ Parent ]
Why pry him out? (4.00 / 2)
I vote we just padlock it, from the outside.

Montani semper liberi

[ Parent ]
A padlock wouldn't be enough... (4.00 / 2)
It needs to be sealed with with silver and cold iron and stamped with the Elder Sign.  Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cheney R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!

"A fantasy is not even a wish, much less an act.  There is no such thing as a culpable or shameful fantasy."  -----Lady Sally McGee

[ Parent ]
never (4.00 / 1)
do something like this because it could hurt down ticket races and affect the agenda in the coming years, be smart and don't celebrate before the fat lady has sung, chill out and wait for xmas day 2008, 11/04/08, early evening i would guess will be soon enough!

honestly, do you think people are not going to vote now? (4.00 / 3)
given the tense environment and the complete fright in which most of the people i know who are obama supporters live, i can't imagine that a little breath of fresh air is going to hold turnout down.  There are a lot of things that Democratic voters are this election cycle, but blase is not one of them.

[ Parent ]
yep (4.00 / 1)
Thanks for this post, Chris. I am seriously getting tired of Rachel Maddow's negativity and tightening-mongering. I'm glad to see there's someone in the blogosphere with the guts to say what has actually been clear for a long time: you can stick a fork in this election.

Nice analysis. (4.00 / 3)
The analysis is obviously spot on, and it's fun to spit in the eye of jinx's and superstition. High marks all around. I'm still not ready to celebrate, though.

The Rude Pundit describes how best to view these last few days of the election as only he can.

Let us enjoy these last few days and get out the popcorn to watch the splendid sight of the right flopping around like a trout on a dock. The Rude Pundit has no doubt that we'll all at last come Tuesday night. Yeah, yeah, anything's possible. While you're fucking that hot woman, the building could collapse or her ex-boyfriend could show up. But barring the extraordinary, oh, good lovers, the rewards of bliss shall be yours.

it's fun to spit in the eye of (4.00 / 2)
and the media who likes to play this game on election night, but can't report on the obvious until then lest they lose ad dollars without a horse race.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

[ Parent ]
JESUS, CHRIS! (0.00 / 0)
Talk about jinxing us!!!  Will you please delete this diary?  Spiking the ball on the two yard line is no way to go!  They can, and will still try, to steal this thing...

My goodness, please don't get cocky!!  WE hanve't won ANYTHING yet!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

No such thing as jinxes. (4.00 / 3)
Get over it. Get out. Vote. Canvas. Do everything you were going to do anyways.

[ Parent ]
Sorry, man... (4.00 / 3)
...but last year, people were wearing Indians World Series shirts when we were 3-1 games up against the Red Sox...

Guess what happened?

As Cleveland fan and a democrat, I can tell you from experience how easy it is to get overconfident, only to have your dreams crushed....

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
A baseball game can be decided in the ninth inning by ONE (0.00 / 0)
grand slam home run.  Political races don't move like that, not by a long shot.  Why do you think it is that only ONCE in the last 14 elections the candidate trailing in the Gallup poll a week out from election day has actually won?  And that was Reagan who turned things around with a great debate performance the Tuesday before election day and the hostage crisis hit on the weekend.  Incredible circumstances that are not repeated this time around, quite the opposite, actually.

[ Parent ]
Do you really think it was a jinx? (4.00 / 1)
Or do you think they got overconfident and perhaps a little complacent and didn't play as well? Or did they just 3 straight games to a good team who hadn't played up to their potential in the first 4?

Jinxes don't exist. Getting complacent and not finishing the job exists, but jinxes don't.

[ Parent ]
Why in the HELL would you ask Chris to delete his diary? (0.00 / 0)
Have your opinion and concerns, let others have theirs.  This is not your blog.  

Sorry, Mike, but you are overdoing it with the "concern" now.  

[ Parent ]
Obama Wins (4.00 / 3)
Big mistake Chris.

There are a myriad of other important races for which a large turnout is critical.

Ego fucks a lot of us up at times.  This is apparently your turn.

Fortunately for us... (0.00 / 0)
...Chris' audience is highly motivated... but, still.. bad karma... I guess it will just make me work even harder!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Yes. (4.00 / 8)
But he will become part of the political vernacular.  People will always remember the "Chris Bowers" effect, where a partisan blogger from a moderately trafficked activist website with no media exposure managed to suppress Democratic turnout by 80% by calling the election before the last vote was in, and pull defeat from the jaws of victory.  In 2012, the Democratic rallying cry will be that we better not "Chris Bower" this one.

I say give Chris his shot at history.

[ Parent ]
Some Math Corrections (4.00 / 3)
Let me quibble with your math, Chris. It's not true that about 60% of the Colorado vote is in. The 60% figure refers to the percentage of early votes as compared to the 2004 election turnout.

There are three errors then. The first error is that turnout will likely be higher, particularly in Colorado. The second error is that Colorado is one of the fastest growing states in population, so there are substantially more people in Colorado in 2008. And the third is voter registration: the 2008 effort was more effective, so a greater percentage of the population is likely registered to vote.

Now, one could construct arguments on how those errors all net out, but those arguments aren't math.

Now that's confidence (0.00 / 0)
confidence, or the groundwork for a truly EPIC FAIL.

But, since I agree, kudos, Chris!!!

Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it: (4.00 / 2)
From the great Karl Rove himself:

I recall, too, the media's screwup in 2004, when exit-polling data leaked in the afternoon. It showed President Bush losing Pennsylvania by 17 points, New Hampshire by 18, behind among white males in Florida, and projected South Carolina and Colorado too close to call. It looked like the GOP would be wiped out.

Bob Shrum famously became the first to congratulate Sen. John Kerry by addressing him as "President Kerry." Commentators let the exit polls color their coverage for hours until their certainty was undone by actual vote tallies.


It's foolish to think anything is over just yet....

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

Yeah, Rove sure is GREAT. That is just loony (4.00 / 1)
EXIT POLLS are different than the polls going into election day.  The polls going into election day showed Bush leading in a close contest.  That is exactly what happened.  The actual POLLS were right.  


RCP Average





Bush +1.5
RCP Average

10/27 - 11/1




Bush +1.5
Marist (1026 LV)





Kerry +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/31 - 11/1




Bush +4
TIPP (1041 LV)

10/30 - 11/1




Bush +2.1
CBS News (939 LV)

10/29 - 11/1




Bush +2
Harris (1509 LV)

10/29 - 11/1




Bush +1
FOX News (1200 LV)

10/30 - 10/31




Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV)

10/29 - 10/31




Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)*

10/29 - 10/31




NBC/WSJ (1014 LV)

10/29 - 10/31




Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)**

10/28 - 10/31




Bush +1
ARG (1258 LV)

10/28 - 10/30




CBS/NY Times (643 LV)

10/28 - 10/30




Bush +3
Pew Research (1925 LV)

10/27 - 10/30




Bush +3
Newsweek (882 LV)

10/27 - 10/29




Bush +6

Now you argue that the REAL POLLS are no longer to be believed because Karl Rove is talking about early EXIT POLLS on election day?  That makes no sense.  

[ Parent ]
last night on the daily show (4.00 / 1)
Kristol all but said it was over and Obama would win...and now Bowers follows suit. The MSM is trying so hard not to go there by focusing on so-called battleground states like MO and IN and NC.

I am looking for a reaganesque style blowout--and I called it months ago.

But I agree that it is not good form to proclaim victory prior to election day.

The anticipation, anxiety and nervousness is part of what makes victory so sweet! I can't wait.

Way too confident a prediction (4.00 / 2)
It assumes that polling is accurate, but this is an unusual election and polling accuracy necessarily suffers because of that.

Not to say that I don't think you are right but as far as an evidence based conclusion that is extremely weak.

The liberal wiki
Send an email to terra@liberalwiki.com

Woot! (0.00 / 0)
finally its over. seems like I've been waiting forever for this stupid marathon to end.

what did Sarah say when she heard she's lost?

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

"I'll get him next time." (4.00 / 1)

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

[ Parent ]
Well, doggone it, we should have poisoned the well (0.00 / 0)
with more character attacks, like Rev. Wright and by calling Obama a facist and second Hitler, but NOOO, weak-limped McCain said no, and I said "gotcha. see ya."  I'll now go talk to the REAL America, you know, the folks who don't live on or close to coasts, about my slash and burn 2012 campaign.  

[ Parent ]
I love you Chris, but (4.00 / 2)
I just don't see the point of this post.  It contains nothing you couldn't just as easily have told us in retrospect on Wednesday morning.  On the slim chance it reduces progressive turnout by a single vote, or is somehow used to re-energize a single conservative voter, it won't have been worth it.

Ground Game (0.00 / 0)
The polls cannot reflect the effect of Obama's superior ground game.   Here is Iowa it is very impressive.    I assume it is like that elsewhere.   It could make the difference in a number of states.  

This is another reason to be optimistic - - but not complacent  

All you PTSD victims, get a therapist! (0.00 / 0)
Good for you, Chris! This is not 2000 or 2004, thank God!

Don't count your chickens... (4.00 / 1)

Puhleeze. If McCain has to lean on the Truman example, he is (4.00 / 1)
toast.  The only pollster back in those days was Gallup, and  their last poll ONE WEEK before election day showed a 5% race.  No state-by-state polling data was available, only that one national poll, which, given the EV system we have was a decent guide but can't be confused with pinpoint accuracy.  

NOW we know what is going on in the states, we realize where McCain pulled money and operation out, the states he has given up, so we can assess the battleground much more accurately and use national polling only as a helpful guide to give us an overall idea by how much we should reduce the battleground picture if the national picture tightens.  

[ Parent ]
somebody hacked Chris's account (4.00 / 1)
and/or gave Chris a happy pill of some kind. Saturday he'll be back with a post called "Here's why I'm nervous."

Demotivation (4.00 / 3)
A lot of you are focusing on the possibility that posts like this demotivate progressives and Democrats to bother voting.

As Newton would remind you, the opposite effect is that it demotivates conservatives to see how out-of-reach their prize is.

One can imagine these effects to be equal, but I don't think so.  People like winning, and want to be part of the history of voting for the winner.  Knowing your candidate is up by a big margin is less demotivational than knowing the candidate is going down in flames.

John McCain has been openly saying "we're going to win" to try and counteract some of that.  Saying "No, you won't" hurts him more than us.

Plus, a few "undecides" might like to take a ride on the band wagon (4.00 / 2)

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

[ Parent ]
The irrationality of some posters is amazing (4.00 / 3)
People talking about "jinxes." I know it's Halloween but this is absurdly superstitious. And all this talk about how emotionally scarred people are from the last two elections. Sheesh.. Al Gore was right.. Americans need to start using their intellect. T

Inversely the "bandwagon" effect does have some basis in social psychology. Last minute voters do, in fact, like to ratify the perceived winner. Nothing wrong with Chris calling it. If other pundits can do it, so can Chris. The perception of momentum for victory is a motivator for last minute volunteers, much more so than the perception of impending defeat. The McCain campaign offices are empty of volunteers these days, the Obama volunteers are out in full force. They want to be on the side of history.

Congratulations, Chris (0.00 / 0)
Reading the entire arc of the story, from Chris's post and through all the comments, I came to the following conclusion.




Agreed 100%, nay, 1000% (0.00 / 0)
This election has been over for a while now.  We are just going through the noise and chatter before it is officially validated.  The only thing in doubt is the size of the victory, but any type of victory couple with a Democratic butt-whipping on the legislative side to the tune of 7+ Senate seats and 30+ House seats is going to be a major mandate and strong repudiation of conservative ideology and doctrine.  

This election as a whole was always going to be about the failures of the GOP.  People angrily tossed the GOP aside in 2006, and we are now seeing a continuation of the same.  The Republican brand is badly damaged and it will take many years to repair.

Republicans instinctively understood that putting a conservative up against whoever won the Democratic primaries would mean instant death, so they went with the Maverick, the centrist McCain who was the media's darling and who many in the middle actually liked.  Little did they know in their collective wisdom of putting McCain into that position that he would veer sharp-right, endorse Bush's economic policies, military policies, overall be a Bush clone who could therefore easily be tied and married to failed Bush policies.  To make matters worse from an general election point of view McCain decided to pick a hard-right religious and social-policy nutjob for his running mate, and the election was all but over.

This thing is DONE.  OVER. Be confident, people.  Nobody has ever come back from deficits like these.  NOBODY.  No, not even Truman back in '48 was looking at daunting odds like these.        

But, but, but......... (0.00 / 0)
Sarah was blessed by her preacher and cleansed by Rev. Muthee.  John McCain is an American Hero and a POW.

How can Gawd Almighty be so wrong?  

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

[ Parent ]
I AM confident, but leaving someone for dead is a bad practice. (0.00 / 0)

Seeing the McCain campaign's flinching corpse is not enough for me, I have to see it to turn to ash in the November sunlight.

Young Scotty Jenkins, so big and able
Saw his fair colleen stretched by the wall
Tore the left leg from under the table
And smashed all the dishes at Flannigan's Ball


[ Parent ]
I believe in celebrating early. If we are proven correct, then (0.00 / 0)
our knowledge that conservatism has been on its death bed and is about to issue it's final breath and that the American people have moved sharply left, certainly left of center, are confirmed.  No harm in being confident in that truth carrying the day.  If we lose somehow (not going to happen, but let's say for argument's sakes) then we are in bigger trouble than ever imagined as a nation.  Who actually cares what was predicted prior to the election when the last 8 disastrous years would not prompt a majority of the American people to get out their collective boots and kick the losers right to the moon?  The Supreme Court implications would be disastrous, so would virtually any part of our future.  

Nah, I believe that conservatism has been rejected as a major ideology for some time now, and therefore I am convinced that Tuesday will be a great day for America.  

[ Parent ]
My wingnut friend says it will be McCain by 5 points... (0.00 / 0)
...he's hearing from a lot of PUMA's supposedly!  And he's hanging onto that LA Times thing in Florida about early voting that has been debunked...

Sure, whatever...

But, hey, Republicans have stolen a lot of other elections before, too!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

Offer to bet your wingnut friend $1,000 on the election outcome (0.00 / 0)
That will shut him up quickly.  No way he would take that bet, regardless of how convinced he sounds.

[ Parent ]
Ooh, Chris Bowers, you are in so much trouble! (0.00 / 0)
Now we've all got to throw some salt over our shoulder or some such.  

Jinxes are BS, polls are usually right, so is Chris (0.00 / 0)
We have this in the BAG ... yet NO ONE is gonna slack off.

[ Parent ]
Chris is tired... (0.00 / 0)
of having to update the EC map/chart all night and day...


Don't forget Virginia! (0.00 / 0)
If Obama wins all of the Kerry states... which he is a lock to do...

and he wins Virginia... which he has held a clear lead in for a couple months now...

then McCain has to...

stop Obama from winning Iowa which Obama is winning solidly

Stop Obama from winning Nevada which Obama has a lead in

stop Obama from winning New Mexico which Obama has a lead in

Stop Obama from winning Colorado which Obama has a lead in

Stop Obama from winning Ohio which Obama has a lead in

Stop Obama from winning Florida which Obama has a lead in

Stop Obama from winning Indiana which is a toss-up

Stop Obama from winning Missouri which is a toss-up

Stop Obama from Arizona which he is threatening

Stop Obama from winning Georgia which he is threatening

Stop Obama from winning both North Dakota and Montana which he is threatening.

In other words, if Obama does indeed win Virginia then the only other non-Kerry state that McCain can afford to lose to Obama will be one of, not two of, but only one of:

North Dakota which Obama apparently leads
Montana which McCain apparently barely leads
South Dakota which Obama is threatening.

One of those three not two.

Virginia is the game.



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