something that markos' post makes me think about is the discrepancy between (0.00 / 0)

LV polls and Early Voter polls.  obama is absolutely destroying mccain in early voting -- even in arizona.  is it possible that early voting numbers are actually more representative of what the final numbers might look like?  might there be a massive pool of first-time voters who are waiting for election day to turn out?  might mccain's turnout be abysmal?  

the reason i am thinking along these lines is largely because i remember, on a number of occasions during the primary, thinking that the percentages were sure to change when results from X precinct came in.  with some exceptions (i.e. MO), the results never actually changed...

might that happen this year with early voting versus same-day voting?  

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by: seabrook @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:11:00 PM CDT

That's what I'm hoping (4.00 / 1)

The early voting numbers here in AZ just astound me. I think the GOP has owned early voting in the past.

When I see these numbers in other states I also wonder if the pollsters may not be guessing the turnout appropriately. Then again, I'm a Dem, doomed to despair and negative thinking, and decide that the early voters are the only Dem voters who will turnout. The Republican voters will swamp us en masse come Tuesday. Yeah, my glass isn't even half-empty -- there's only a few drops at the bottom of it. Oh please may it overflow on Tuesday!

And may my state go blue!

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by: Erin in Flagstaff @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:25:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

must be kinda fun being in AZ today :-) (0.00 / 0)

you are so right that the GOP used to do really well with early voting.  that is, i think, even further evidence that what you see (in early voting numbers) may be what you get (on election day).  

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by: seabrook @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:29:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Georgia (4.00 / 3)

You want to really send shockwaves: win Georgia and show that the GOP isn't even safe as a Deep South regional party.

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by: ecotect @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:16:33 PM CDT

The May Not Be Enough Time to Do This (4.00 / 1)

But, it would be amazing if Obama and Bill Clinton would do a joint appearance with Jim Martin in tow at Centennial Olympic Park in Atlanta. One big event might just put Obama and Martin over the top in GA, especially if Bill comes too. They could have Hank Aaron and John Lewis: they could really do it big.

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by: ecotect @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:37:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And Gore Wasn't A Sitting Senator (4.00 / 1)

And hadn't been for 8 years.  When was the last time a sitting Senator/Governor running for President lost their home state on election night?

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by: themann1086 @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:40:11 PM CDT

1972 (0.00 / 0)

McGovern lost South Dakota.

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by: Haggai @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 13:43:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Napolitano isn't the most progressive (0.00 / 0)

but she's very, very smart and a terrific politician. I hope she takes out McCain.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

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by: Populista @ Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 14:55:22 PM CDT