25k in Colorado? (4.00 / 1)

surely thats 250k? With 2 million voted, 25k would be ~1% lead, Ras and PPP had Obama up double digits in the early voting.

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by: ibaxter @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 20:54:36 PM CDT

hmm (0.00 / 0)

diarist on Dkos had the same 25k number. Maybe it refers to the 37-35 Dem/rep advantage in early votes, not to the projected vote margin?

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by: ibaxter @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 21:24:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

there have been 2.5 million voters in NC (4.00 / 2)

if Obama is up by 500,000, that means that Obama has approx 1.5 million and McCain has approx 1.0 million.  That puts Obama up 60-40.  There will probably be another 2 million voters on election day.  In order for McCain to tie, he would have to win 1.25 million of those, or 62.5%.  Not going to happen.

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by: bennytoothpick @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 21:08:40 PM CDT

Was on the same call (0.00 / 0)

and quick hitted it.

The 1,119,022 GOTV shifts really impressed me. My packet was like 80 voters. If all of those people signed up for shifts do 80 voters that's 80 million contacts in the final days of the campaign.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

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by: Populista @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 21:42:55 PM CDT

Probably more (0.00 / 0)

I've done several canvasses now, and the average packet has been bigger than that. I'm in a very Republican area, so some of our packets are not very dense, on the order of 70-90 knocks, but in minority neighborhoods they are on the order of 110-120 knocks in a smaller piece of turf. In bigger cities, I've got to imagine even greater density; I could imagine having twice as many knocks in a packet in an area that's all condos or apartments.

The number I've actually caught at home has varied... Anywhere from 10%-40% depending on when and where.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

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by: fwiffo @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 21:49:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well (0.00 / 0)

some people may do less.

The campaign is going to try to hit everyone who might be a Obama voter at least once so it's got to be at least about 70 million. Could be up to 100 million though. In this campaign amazing things happen.  

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

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by: Populista @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 22:01:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Regardless (4.00 / 1)

It's a lot of fucking voter contacts.

Anyhow, I hope it didn't come across that I was trying to dis your packet or something. The amount of effort involved doesn't really correspond to the number of addresses. My easiest packets were last Sunday, and they were also my biggest because they were in a dense area. The day before I did a lot fewer knocks, but it was a lot more work (of course, it was also 90 and humid that day).

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

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by: fwiffo @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 22:48:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Didn't come off that way at all (0.00 / 0)

GOTV is going to be amazing. Let's win!

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

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by: Populista @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 23:33:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

80 million knocks, not contacts (0.00 / 0)

A million GOTV shifts with 80 voters per packet is 80 million knocks, not 80 million contacts.  Only a fraction of those turn into contacts.  Still very impressive.

John McCain <3 lobbyists

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by: Fran for Dean @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 22:39:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]