Presidential Forecast, 11/3-4: 13 Hours Left

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 13:00


Electoral College: Obama 338, McCain 200 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 51.9%--44.3% McCain


Dark Blue (278): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (60): Obama +0.1%-+5.9%
Lean Red (53): McCain +0.1%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more

Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/27-11/03

States not shown are further either direction
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin Polls Obama EVs
Obama Lock 154 154
Maine-AL 2 57.0% 40.5% +16.5% 2 156
Iowa 7 54.0% 38.3% +15.7% 3 163
New Jersey 15 53.5% 38.0% +15.5% 2 178
Oregon 7 55.8% 40.3% +15.5% 5 185
Washington 11 53.0% 39.5% +13.5% 2 196
Wisconsin 10 54.0% 40.5% +13.5% 2 206
Michigan 17 53.8% 40.8% +13.0% 4 223
Maine-02 1 52.0% 41.0% +11.0% 1* 224
Minnesota 10 52.5% 41.7% +10.8% 6 234
New Mexico 5 53.8% 43.3% +10.5% 4 239
New Hampshire 4 52.4% 42.0% +10.4% 7 243
Pennsylvania 21 51.6% 43.9% +7.7% 9 264
Colorado 9 51.4% 45.0% +6.4% 5 273
Nevada 5 50.0% 43.7% +6.3% 3 278
Virginia 13 50.5% 45.8% +4.7% 6 291
Ohio 20 48.6% 46.7% +1.9% 8 311
Florida 27 48.7% 47.1% +1.6% 9 338
North Carolina 15 48.1% 48.2% -0.1% 9 353
Missouri 11 48.0% 48.6% -0.6% 7 364
North Dakota 3 46.0% 47.0% -1.0% 1 367
Indiana 11 47.0% 48.4% -1.4% 5 378
Montana 3 46.0% 48.5% -2.5% 4 381
Arizona 10 45.7% 48.7% -3.0% 3 391
Georgia 15 46.2% 49.8% -3.8% 6 406
Lock McCain 132 538
* = Poll conducted before October 27th

Analysis and methodology in the extended entry.

Update 3:00 p.m.: New Rasmussen swing state polls added. New Strategic Vision Pennsylvania added. New PPP Missouri added. Links can be found in quick hits.

Update 6:00 p.m.: Survey USA North Carolina, along with PPP Indiana and Nevada.

Update 8:00 p.m.: Strategic Vision Florida, Georgia and Ohio included.

Update 9:00 p.m.: New Florida, Georgia, Maine and Washington polls added.

Update 1:00 a.m.: New Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia polls added.

Update 10:00 a.m. Tuesday: Final update completed. North Carolina flips to McCain.

Chris Bowers :: Presidential Forecast, 11/3-4: 13 Hours Left
Methodology
All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the final eight days of the campaign (October 27th forward). Campaign-funded and non-random Internet polls are not included. Every pollster only has one poll per average, and all polls are weighted equally. In the event two polls were not taken in the final seven days of the campaign, the two most recent polls were used instead. No polls conducted before October 13th are ever used, no matter what. The states listed were either swing states in 2004, or are swing states now. My rationale for this methodology is based on research I conducted back in June, which you can read here.

Analysis
These are pretty much the final averages, and I am now using the date range that I promised for the final forecast back in June. These are my final projections for every state, with the exception of Missouri, North Carolina, and North Dakota, where incoming polls might still change my projection. Obama is at 338 and McCain 171. Only 29 electoral votes are still too close to call.

The number of hours remaining refers to the time when California polls close. That is the moment when no work is left to be done, and when I except all major news outlets will project Obama as the next president. I will continue to update the forecast during the day, and make final projections sometime around noon eastern, tomorrow.  


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Long night (4.00 / 1)
We're gonna have to wait on some very important stuff being decided out west.  Prop 8 in CA, of course, plus some House races: Darcy, Debbie Cook, etc.  Though it doesn't look like there'll be much drama from Alaska, which is good for Begich and Berkowitz.

Yep (4.00 / 1)
And I'm really hoping the presidential race doesn't get called early for that reason. We need turnout in CA, OR, WA.

[ Parent ]
Final plead for Volunteers (4.00 / 4)
I volunteered this morning even though my boss grumbled about it, so I'm working late this evening to make up. I'm volunteering all day tomorrow.

Your local office needs you today and tomorrow. Even if you're not in a swing state, you'll be able to phone-bank into swing states. I keep hearing reports about shortages of volunteers in different locations, like North St. Louis and parts of PA. I'm also hearing mixed turnout reports in places like Washington where we have a very close Governor's race that needs big turnout.

We needed huge numbers of people this morning in my office to blanket some of our precincts with door hangers, and we did not have enough. I know most people can't take more than one day off for the election, but please do everything you can, even if it just means coming in for half an hour of phone-banking this evening.

I know everybody is expecting a big win, and we're all tired, but we have to make it really fucking big. We have to get every last vote out. There will be senate and house races decided by a handful of votes. There will be places where just a handful of volunteers could put one more state in our column.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!


An anecdote (0.00 / 0)
Yesterday, at our office, we had a small rally with some minor celebrities there to speak and get everyone fired up. Afterwards, everyone was to phone-bank and canvass. During the canvasser training and handing out packets. The place was swarming like a beehive hit with a rock.

Unfortunately, we also had a few people trickling in who heard there was going to be a "rally" and they were just showing up for that. They'd actually missed the speeches, but then they decided to hang around and pester people about signs and stickers and buttons. I spoke with one (paraphrased):

Douche: "Hey, isn't there supposed to be a rally here?"

Me: "Yeah, it was half an hour ago. Are you here to volunteer?"

Douche: "Oh, do you have any yard signs or buttons?"

Me: "You might get some if you phone-bank for a bit or go canvassing with us."

Douche: "Oh, well I came for the rally. I was hoping I could get a sign."

Me: "Have you voted?"

Douche: "Yeah."

Me: "Then get the hell out of here. If you're not volunteering, you're in the way."

I'm pretty sure his real name was Douche. If it's not, I'm going to hack into state records after the election and change it. Seriously, folks. Don't be like Douche. There are people who come to rallies just to be useless leeches. If you've got time to do that, you've got time to do something that actually helps. We're out of time for talking and screwing around with election souvenirs and actually do some doing.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!


[ Parent ]
Early voting (0.00 / 0)
When are the early voting results announced on Tuesday night? Are they already counted and announced right when the polls close, or are they just integrated with the Nov 4 votes and counted and announced together over the course of the evening? I am just wondering whether, when the results start coming in, we will see Obama surge to a big early lead Tuesday night right after the polls close, due to early votes, then see it gradually shrink?

Good question (0.00 / 0)
I would guess that they'd be the first votes announced.  For instance, in places with touch-screen voting, I assume they'd have the numbers already downloaded by election day, with the machines then reset and sent out to the precincts on Tuesday.

[ Parent ]
Depends on the precinct (0.00 / 0)
Early votes will be reported at the same time all votes from a given precinct are reported, I believe. In some states or counties, absentee ballots might be reported en masse once the polls close. I don't know which.

[ Parent ]
I'll hazard a guess and say it depends ... (0.00 / 0)
...on the state. If you include absentee ballots in early voting, in many states those are the last counted, and it can take days (for no good reason).

[ Parent ]
Obama blowout (0.00 / 0)
I think Obama's going to 'overperform' (put in wavy finger quotes because the reasons for a potential overperformance of the polls are well known.)

I think he'll be closer to 400 EVs than 350 and he'll break double figures on the popular vote.


What I most hope for from this coming ... (0.00 / 0)
...victory that so many of us have worked so hard to achieve is an end to having to spend so much time fighting rearguard actions to hang onto the remnants of the gains from the New Deal and Great Society legislation, as well, of course, of the gains made in the cultural wars, Roe v. Wade looming large in this equation. When we win, if we take Obama's call for "bottom-up politics" seriously, we can again, for the first time in a long time, move forward instead of just refighting old battles, frequently losing them.

early closing states in play (0.00 / 0)
Hi Chris:

Thanks for all the work on this table.  One thing that I'm watching are 'leading indicator' states, mainly VA and IN for their early closing and in play status.

Are there others you think could be leading indicators of the results?


Sure (0.00 / 0)
North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania all close between 7-8 p.m., eastern. We will know pretty fast how this is going.

[ Parent ]
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