Fingers crossed for Virginia (0.00 / 0)

 The data is what it is, but I'm still having a very hard time wrapping my head around Virginia going blue. Partly because I work there, and my office is a cauldron of wingnuttery -- it just seems weird that it would vote for a Democrat at the presidential level. But it's looking like it might.

 I will say this -- if Virginia does light up blue, it's going to be a very, very pleasant evening.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

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by: Master Jack @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 16:37:13 PM CST

My Map Differs a Little (0.00 / 0)

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by: Vote For America @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 16:40:15 PM CST

I'm An Optimist (0.00 / 0)

I see Obama winning all three of the disputed states.

If we get really lucky, we take Montana, Arizona, Indiana and Georgia, too.

Plus Omaha.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 16:57:38 PM CST

love (0.00 / 0)

I love the electoral college.  Every poll I've seen shows Obama ahead by something like 52% to 45%, yet he's on pace to win twice as many electors as McCain.  Makes perfect sense.  Great system.  

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by: Notorious P.A.T. @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 17:39:45 PM CST

national popular vote! (0.00 / 0)

One person, one vote.

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by: dday @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 18:09:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Maybe Now (0.00 / 0)

after this EC ass-whupping, we might just get some GOP support.

Yeah, right!  Rational thought from the GOP.  What was I thinking?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 18:47:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Montana (0.00 / 0)

I agree with you and the consensus completely except on Montana, where I truly think that depressed Republican turnout along with Ron Paul on the ballot will give Obama enough of the opening he needs to win.  I'd put North Dakota on there too, but I think it's the difference between having a popular Dem governor on the ballot (Schweitzer) and a popular Republican one (Hoeven).

I'm going with 356-182.

dd

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by: dday @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 18:08:54 PM CST

My shot! (0.00 / 0)

I'm forecasting Obama with 333, with the map as above, except a close loss in Ohio, and a win in NC.   McCain holds on, barely, in the others.  Anything above 270 and I'm a happy camper, although I'd really appreciate the stress being over with a win relatively early in the evening, for a change.

Thanks for all the forecast work and poll summaries!

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by: statsguy @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 19:57:08 PM CST