Senate Results Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:02


Key Senate Races
State Reporting Dem % Rep %
Alaska 96% 47% 48%
Georgia 99% 46% 50%
Minnesota 99% 42% 42%
Oregon 71% 47% 47%

Democratic seats: 54
Republican seats: 40
Independent seats: 2
Undecided: 4
Pickups: Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia

Update 10: All four Better Democrats in the Senate are down to the wire. Crazy.

Update 9: Oregon back to undecided. And what's up with Alaska? Two Republican shocks seem imminent in what is otherwise a heavy Democratic night. Seems fishy. In Minnesota, Franken leads by 2,300 votes. In Georgia, it could be a recount to secure the run-off.

Update 8: Merkley wins Oregon: A little belated, but Oregon's premier political analyst has called the race for Merkley.

Update 7: Franken takes the lead: Franken now leads by 1,350 votes or so. Still, get ready for a recount.

Update 6: Minnesota margin now 1,465 votes: Get ready for a recount in Minnesota.

Update 5: Franken within less than 200 votes: Huge nailbiter in Minnesota. Too bad there is no run-off.

Update 4: Alaska in play? No word on which counties have reported, but Stevens is winning in Alaska with 37% reporting. This could be the shocker of the night, after Obama winning Indiana.

Update 3: Merkley will win: While the networks haven't called it yet, Merkley is going to win. The red counties have all reported. The remaining vote is from Eugene and Portland. Game over.

Update 2: Hagan wins North Carolina!: Make that six Senate pickups for Democrats.

Update 1: Shaeen wins New Hampshire: Mark a fifth pickup down for Democrats.

Chris Bowers :: Senate Results Thread

Tags: , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

CNN'S KY Senate Polls (0.00 / 0)
Looks like McConnell wins in a squeaker....

We got VA (0.00 / 0)
Not that it's news. Nice to have taken both Senate seats...who would've thought it?

ABC projects a McConnell win in KY (0.00 / 0)


MSNBC and 538.com call NM... (0.00 / 0)
for Udall

Hennepin County (0.00 / 0)
Looks like Franken can make up some numbers when the final 20% come in in this county. Might be good for a net of another 25,000 votes.  

Please oh please oh please ... (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
MN - 90% reporting, Franken down by 3k (0.00 / 0)
The final 22% of Hennepin still to come, which may provide a 20k advantage to Franken. Don't know about the other counties.

[ Parent ]
I'm no MN expert... (0.00 / 0)
But it does look like Coleman's base areas are at 100% (or at 90ish, but really tiny).

As soon as Hennepin comes in, Franken should be put over the top.


[ Parent ]
Minnesota (0.00 / 0)
For what it's worth, CNN's exit poll for Minnesota shows Franken winning by a substantial margin.

The truth about Saxby Chambliss

Only 27% of Multnomah (Portland) has reported (0.00 / 0)
And so far the margin from that one county is 47k.

Stevens is winning in Alaska... (0.00 / 0)
This is a huge disappointment...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


Patience, less than half the vote has been reported in AK (0.00 / 0)
And at least from the Alaska map on CNN, there's no way to tell which parts have reported.

[ Parent ]
Actual vote counts as well as % wd be welcome (0.00 / 0)
...especially for outstanding races MN, GA, OR, AK.

Thanks for heroic work, rigorous analysis enabling us to target $ to underdogs w/fighting chance!  

There is no such thing as a free market.


Stevens (0.00 / 0)
The exit polls have Begich winning every age group, and winning by a huge margin with women.  It's an 11 point win just based on the gender crosstabs.  It's hard to see the exit polls being that far off.

Young is also beating Berkowitz so far (0.00 / 0)
Those had better be the absolute wingnuttiest parts of Alaska that have reported so far.

[ Parent ]
Isn't Berkowitz Mayor of Anchorage (0.00 / 0)
That could be evidence that Anchorage accounts for many of the precincts yet to report.

[ Parent ]
That's what I'm thinking. (0.00 / 0)
The same rules apply as nationally--the first precincts reporting are generally the small rural ones that skew a lot more Republican. Too bad Alaska doesn't break the vote down so we could confirm this.

Unless the pre-election polls and the exit polls are both waaaay out of whack, or Palin goosed Republican turnout to an incredible extent, Begich is going to make that ground up.  


[ Parent ]
Also... (0.00 / 0)
...Don Young is ahead by a comparable margin. I might figure that Republicans would decide to vote strategically to ensure that they held the office no matter what happened to Stevens, but Young lacks that excuse. I think the remaining vote will put him away as well. But let's see what happens.

[ Parent ]
MO (0.00 / 0)
MAN this is a squeeker. Obama is 554 votes behind with everything in but 2% of Jackson county (where Obama is winning 2-1),

It is not looking good for Al (0.00 / 0)
What is left in CD5 and CD8 is probably not enough to make up what he is down and what is left in CD3 and CD6.

Minnesota rough projection: Franken by 12,000 (0.00 / 0)
I went through county by county on the CNN site for Minnesota senate. I was doing rough calculations in my head, but it should be about right. If you project every county to come in at the same margin it is currently showing, and assume that every precinct within a county has about equal size, then it looks like Franken will gain about 15,000 votes on Coleman still.

They currently show Franken down by 3,000, 1,060,635 to 1,057,234. So I'm projecting that Franken will win by 12,000 when the counting is done.


It will tghten a bit (0.00 / 0)
a recount is almost assured. He's down by 16,000 with 93%. I just don't quite see it.

[ Parent ]
Franken's within 100 votes w/94% reporting (0.00 / 0)
per CNN. Hennepin's up to 91%. What are the MN rules for recounts?

[ Parent ]
Recounts (0.00 / 0)
1% statewide automatic.

[ Parent ]
Alaska Update (0.00 / 0)
Per http://www.elect.alaska.net/da...

53.4% reporting
Begich 46.60%
Stevens 47.97%

And we may not know the final result for 10 days. I hate to use this source, but the report seems credible - as it's based on what happened with the Young/Parnell primary:

http://elections.foxnews.com/2...

This is a special rule the Division of Elections has implemented for this year. It was spurred by the tight GOP primary contest between Young and Alaska's Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell in September.

Interpreting the rest of the article - If Begich (current Mayor of Anchorage) is up by 4% when we reach about 75% reported, it sounds like he may declare victory tonight (or in the morning). Otherwise, we may have to wait on this one.


If Stevens wins (4.00 / 1)
then perhaps we SHOULD let Alaska secede from the union.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
Moose Chips. Stevens' lead is increasing (0.00 / 0)
72.1% reporting
Begich 46.06%
Stevens 48.42%

[ Parent ]
Shoot that moose (0.00 / 0)
81.3% reporting
Begich 46.20%
Stevens 48.22%

A tiny bit closer. But it may not be enough. It's a 4,000 vote margin with maybe 50,000 votes to be counted.


[ Parent ]
Franken back in the lead! (0.00 / 0)
According to posters at DailyKos, Franken leads by about 1000 votes with 96% reporting. Those are the results from CNN.

MN SoS (0.00 / 0)
has Al down 11,000 with 95%, But Duluth is only about 65% in with Al getting 54% and 13,000 up so this is going to be really tight.
Precincts Reporting: 95.28% (3935 of 4130)

[ Parent ]
Franken up! (0.00 / 0)
Come on, Al... just hold on...

I project VERY close. (0.00 / 0)
Stealing pualo's idea I made a spreadsheet using the County by County info directly from MN SoS at: http://electionresults.sos.sta...

For Each County I take:
VoteProj = VoteCurrent * PctsInCnty / PctsReported

With the last upate from 39,100 to 39,170 of 41,300 (94.8%) my projection flipped from Franken winning by 251 votes to Coleman winning by 185 votes!!

My current numbers (with 39,170 precints reporting) are:
Coleman 1,135,847 1,191,123 41.98%
Franken 1,123,741 1,190,938 41.97%
Barkley 0,410,143 0,430,574 15.17%

I'll try to turn this into a table in a minute.


[ Parent ]
Good tidings (0.00 / 0)
Hennepin still only 92%, where it's been parked for a while.  I think we're better than 50-50 to take this one.  I really, really want to win this seat.

MN (0.00 / 0)
Precincts Reporting: 95.69% (3952 of 4130)
NORM COLEMAN 1146415 42.16
AL FRANKEN 1134876 41.74

Duluth still around 65%


The Merkley campaign is waiting for the results (0.00 / 0)
in a hotel room right now. They are supposed to do one more count tonight and then another starting at 9am tomorrow morning.  

Netroots Director for Oregon Senate Candidate Jeff Merkley

MN (0.00 / 0)
with about 100 precincts left Al's down by 7000 or so 40. Most of the remaining seems to favor Al. I think he can knock off another 3000 before the recount.

Hate to say it... (0.00 / 0)
But AK is looking bad... I can't believe it, but it looks like Alaska is about to re-elect a convicted felon.

I hope I'm wrong, but the exit polls are looking bad now (I guess since they've re-weighted them, so probably not final).  You know what it looks like?  People lying... They didn't want to tell pollsters that they were voting for a convicted felon... The same went for the exit polls.  People lied to the exit pollers (particularly women).


Assuming that these numbers hold up (4.00 / 1)
then I can only ascribe it to fear that their precious welfare state status and annual check will disappear under a socialist liberal. I have a huge problem with a state whose leaders like to brag about what a rugged individualist state it is, that's basically living on the federal dole. Not the native peoples, but freeloaders who keep electing crooks like Young, Stevens and Palin.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
I had a bad feeling (4.00 / 1)
about this one, even after he was found guilty. From what we've all learned about Alaska recently, there seemed to me to be more than enough nut jobs to vote this guy back into office.  

[ Parent ]
Nut jobs and welfare kings (4.00 / 1)
The ironic thing is that with Obama like to win and Dems likely to increase their majorities (as Alaskans went to the polls), they stood a much better chance of benefitting from federal largesse under a Dem senator and rep than Repub ones. As it stands, if Young & Stevens get reelected, they will likely be frozen out of all that pork. What exactly do they expect Dems to give a convicted felon and a probable one? Thus, they're stupid and crazy welfare kings.

Now why exactly is Alaska a state?

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


[ Parent ]
Franken up by 2300 with 98% reporting (0.00 / 0)
Yes he can?

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

Fingers crossed! (0.00 / 0)
We really need to get this one.

[ Parent ]
Franken makes it easier to throw Joe down the well (0.00 / 0)


"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
Oops! (0.00 / 0)
I just realized that this inadvertantly references the anti-Semitic song sung by Borat in the movie. Didn't mean that at all. Hell, I'm Jewish myself.

But I'd still like to see Joe get the boot from Harry.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


[ Parent ]
No worries (0.00 / 0)
don't think anyone was thinking anything foul for even one second. And I love the idea of Joe the Plumber being thrown down. Metaphorically speaking, of course.

Say, did anyone else catch that fool on TV today driving around with a car trunk full of plungers and giving them away to McCain supporters as a show of strength? What a clown.


[ Parent ]
I didn't see it (0.00 / 0)
But I don't doubt it. Few things scare me more than the moronic, inbred, superstitious, anti-intellectual, knee-jerk, flag-waving, nativist, reality-denying knuckle-dragging segment of the electorate. They remind me of the the crowds that enthusiastically cheered the Nazis in the 30's, they're around a third of the country, and they're not only not going away, but they BREED. Overcoming the obvious threat that they continually present to the possibility of sustainable democracy is one of the biggest challenges of the next 10-20 years. Without them, there would have been no McCarthy, no Nixon, no Reagan, no Gingrich, no Bush II.

And now that moron Joe on Morning Joe is going off about cultural warfare and hateful liberals. We're going to be hearing this for the next 4 years as they lick their wounds and try to convince themselves that the "real" America was stolen from them again by us fake Americans, who will not turn their kids gay and make them eat quiche. The 90's all over again. Can't we all ship them to Alaska and expel it from the union? Let Russia have them.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


[ Parent ]
You got all that right (0.00 / 0)
And as for this:
And now that moron Joe on Morning Joe is going off about cultural warfare and hateful liberals. We're going to be hearing this for the next 4 years

And boy do they know how do to victimhood! We're going to up to our ears 24/7 about how badly they're being treated by us liberal meanies. (Christmas is cancelled!)

By the way, have I mentioned lately what a big dumb cocksucker Joe Scarborough is?  


[ Parent ]
Has he ever not been one? (0.00 / 0)
Although I believe that he's straight. I'm not gay but I can't imagine any gay man being attracted to him. Even the closeted Republican ones (half the party, I suspect).

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
Very funny, kovie (0.00 / 0)
You know full well I'm not making any "gay" references. C**ksucker as an insult 99.9% of the time has nothing to do with gay. You're younger then me, so do you need to go back and review George Carlin's "7 Dirty Words"? And then there's alway this, which is hilarious.

But yeah - if I were a gay man, I wouldn't want him.  


[ Parent ]
Franken down again... (0.00 / 0)
Sigh... still seems like there's a good amount of blue vote out there left, but Wright county looks like it also has a fair amount of R vote in there... I don't know who will have the lead going into the recount.

Hollywood Joe (0.00 / 0)
I wouldn't be surprised if Joe the Plumber gets a movie deal.

Yeah, and I think we all know what kind (0.00 / 0)
Why do I not have a hard time seeing him go the way of John Wayne Bobbit and the Harding-Gilloolilys? This guy is such a joke--like his party.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
Stevens. (0.00 / 0)
How can Stevens be even close to winning his Senate seat back??  I thought after everything happening with his trial this week he would be kicked out by a landslide.  With voting him back in, and allowing Sara Palin to be your governor to begin with it really begs the question, What are the good people of Alaska thinking??

USER MENU

Open Left Campaigns

SEARCH

   

Advanced Search

QUICK HITS
STATE BLOGS
Powered by: SoapBlox