Omnibus Overnight Results Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 04:59


With Missouri and Nebraska-02 seemingly going to McCain, it seems the final electoral count will by Obama 364--174 McCain. Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. When looking to stretch the map, Indiana and North Carolina are the big prizes.

In the Senate, Democrats have 54 seats, plus Bernie Sanders, with four campaigns (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon) still undecided. We need three of the four to win the Employee Free Choice Act. One or two will probably be enough to pass Obama's legislation. There is still a lot of fighting to be done in the Senate. Expect a recount in more than one of these states.

In the House, we are at 258 seats, with AK-AL, CA-04, ID-01, NJ-03, WA-08 and, maybe, OH-15 still undecided. We seem on course to hit 260 exactly, as per my final House forecast. Also, something is fishy in Alaska, with the Alaska House and Senate races both far outperforming their polling.

Among Better Democrats, Alan Grayson, Eric Massa, Joshua Segall, Tom Perriello, and Gary Peters have all won. Plus, Jim Martin, Al Franken, Mark Begich, Jeff Merkley and Darcy Burner are still in close campaigns. With only five losses so far, that is a very high winning percentage for an all-challenger page. We even scored the night's biggest Democratic upset in Perriello, plus Florida trend-buster Alan Grayson (the only Florida Democratic challenger to win). Both are hard proof that progressive campaigns can succeed, even in red districts.

When it comes to my forecasts, I'm telling you--if it weren't for those pesky kids in Indiana, I'd be on pace for a Mac Book in the Daily Kos contest. Without Obama's victory in Indiana, I would still be 100% tonight, across all Presidential, Senate and House campaigns. I had Obama at 353 (I only changed my final NC forecast after the contest deadline), Democrats at 260 House seats, and 57-40-2 in the Senate with a run-off in Georgia. Not to toot my own horn, but I'm getting good at this election forecasting thing. It is certainly lucky to find unexpected talents later in life.

All around, an excellent night. This is an omnibus thread for all remaining results. Broader, deeper thoughts, along with the path forward, coming later. For now, go Darcy!
Chris Bowers :: Omnibus Overnight Results Thread

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Omnibus Overnight Results Thread | 28 comments
congrats (0.00 / 0)
to everyone, its been a fun night.

i'm still on track for the macbook, but with 9500 or so submissions i'm not holding my breath.

my predictions were:
58 Democratic Senate seats
40 Republican Senate seats
251 Democratic House seats
184 Republican House seats
364 Obama Electoral Votes
174 McCain Electoral Votes
52.4 Obama Popular Vote Percentage
46.3 McCain Popular Vote Percentage

Senate gone already... (0.00 / 0)
We can't get to 58 senate seats now... If you read it carefully, you had to project the number of actual dems, not Dems + Indies that align with Dems... Is that what you did?
[ Parent ]
also (0.00 / 0)
you can't include the result of a runoff.

I think Bowers is tooting his horn a little too soon. Believe it or not, Stevens may actually win reelection in Alaska. A convicted felon for goodness' sake. And a liar who said he wasn't convicted of anything.

I think that if Stevens and Young win in Alaska, it's time to cut off all pork projects to that state. Let them pay for roads themselves using their oil money. Start giving more money to Hawaii, where the roads are actually in pretty bad shape, or other blue states.

Regarding Prop. 8, I wish we could organize protests outside of every LDS church in CA. Let them know what we think of bigots who fill out airwaves with lies and smears and install prejudice in the CA constitution. They want to get involved in politics, so be it.

[ Parent ]
Merkley (0.00 / 0)
Chris, did you put Merkley back into the toss up category because Multnomah County is now showing 100% reporting?  If so, you shouldn't.  The numbers are screwy.  There are 436,000 registered voters in Multnomah and 360,000 ballots were turned in.  But the 100% reporting numbers only tally 134,000 ballots.  Therefore, even though it says 100% reporting, there are actually 226,000 uncounted ballots that should break around 2-1 for Merkley.

http://www.mcelections.org/200...
http://www.mcelections.org/200...

Thank you (0.00 / 0)
Multnomah County vote totals didn't change yet the precinct count went from ~30% to 100% reporting. WTF?

"Don't take much, does it, elected Democrats, to get your balls tucked up." Cf.
[ Parent ]
And it begins: (0.00 / 0)
Obama expanding the electoral map is a big victory for...the Republicans! About a half hour ago, some talking head on CNN was explaining that because Obama won in so many areas of the country, that means he must govern from the "center". He can't possibly think he can govern "from the left".

And on a related note, while I did hear the word "landslide" on more than one occasion (MSNBC), never once did I hear the word "mandate". Don't "landslide" and "mandate" kind of go hand in hand? I guess not if you're a Democrat.  

odd (0.00 / 0)
I would have sworn I heard "mandate" but not "landslide."  Oh well, that's why eyewitness accounts are unreliable.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
[ Parent ]
You probably did hear the "M" word (4.00 / 2)
All I know is that I did not. And it's pissing me off because when Bush squeaked by in the narrowest of margins in 2004, somehow everyone agreed he had a "mandate".

Funny how that works, eh?
Bastards.

[ Parent ]
If Obama wins MO... (0.00 / 0)
Then I have a damn good shot at the contest... though I don't remember what I picked for house seats, it was pretty close to what you had... I probably had a couple more, though, which would lose me the macbook anyway.  Oh, I also had +8 Dems, so if Stevens pulls off this ridiculous upset, then I'll lose there too... Oh well, the MacBook doesn't compare to Obama's historic victory tonight. =)

My PV = 52.8 - McCain 46.3... right now (according to kos) it's 52.2 - 46.6.

2 things (0.00 / 0)
  1. It's looking like we could lose three opportunities for pickups in the senate by unbelievably small margins (MN, OR, AK). How unfortunate that would be...
  2. Aside from those possible senate surprises, as a whole, the polls leading up to election day were remarkably accurate, weren't they? I mean, a composite of the most recent polls (essentially what you did, Chris) would predict the actual outcome almost exactly. As Amy Walters said on the News Hour, pollsters get to keep their jobs this year.


The truth about Saxby Chambliss
We've Got Oregon (0.00 / 0)
I'm 99.9% sure we have Oregon in the bag.  The remaining votes to be counted come disproportionately from good areas.

Feel good about MN, too, though there's no telling for sure.  Plus, I'm guessing there'll be a recount.

I don't know what the hell's going on with AK, though.

[ Parent ]
I wish Obama (0.00 / 0)
had campaigned at least once with Franken, or maybe cut an ad for him. I wonder what the behind the scene story is on that. Also, DSCC needs to explain why they didn't spend more money on ads in Alaska, one of the cheapest states there is.

Finally, the No on 8 folks really dropped the ball here in CA. The airwaves have just been packed with lies and smears and fearmongering about gay marriage. We could have won if we had better ads sooner, but the No people didn't take this seriously enough until the final week.

[ Parent ]
Yes on 8 ads (0.00 / 0)
were all over the websites on my computer. I was even greeted with a big Yes on 8 banner ad on one of my favorite stress-reliving feel good sites: The Daily Puppy, which did not make me feel good at all.

The Yes on 8 ads were very deceptive too - made it seem like Obama was for it, when in fact he was against.

One good thing here in CA - so far Prop 4 is going down (but still too close for comfort). That one's a matter of life and death - literally (parental notification bullshit scam).  

[ Parent ]
Here's looking at Dianne Feinstein. (0.00 / 0)
Talk abut last fuckin minute when over a third of voters had cast their ballots.  She's popular with AA women who, proded by Obama voted early.  And if you look at Andrew Sullivan's blog, it was the AA vote that killed our chances to preserve marriage rights in he most populous state in the Union.

For some reason, it seems that Obama has some pathological and deep-seated psychological need for Republicans to like him.  Seriously.  It's weird.
[ Parent ]
On Andrew Sullivan (4.00 / 1)
And if you look at Andrew Sullivan's blog, it was the AA vote that killed our chances to preserve marriage rights in he most populous state in the Union.

African-Americans make up 6% of California's population (and, at most, 10% of the electorate). They do not have the political power to stop or pass Prop 8 all by themselves. And I can't believe that people are looking at a sample of 200 people and making blanket statements about the Black community. It's irresponsible on so many levels, and I expected more from liberals and progressives.

The margins of error in that study are just too large. Moreover, the exit polls don't seem to reflect the county-by-county data. Alameda County, which has a sizable Black population, overwhelmingly voted no on Prop 8. Some of the more ethnically homogenous counties overwhelmingly voted yes.

Moreover, I don't see Andrew Sullivan talking about how conservative white men helped Prop 8 pass. It reminds me of the time he blamed homophobic Blacks for Bush's 2004 slim victory, conveniently deflecting the blame from White conservatives/libertarians like himself. Moreover, the Arizona ban passed with a decisive majority. Blacks make up 3% of Arizona's population. Who's to blame there?  

[ Parent ]
Ugh, Coleman out ahead again... (0.00 / 0)
By about 3k votes...  I think the votes are still out there for Franken, but this is looking ridiculously close.
"Tighter than a bull's ass in fly season." (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah, now I remember... (0.00 / 0)
The amount of chatter about how far to the "middle" Obama is going to need to govern from is making my head spin.  Did he not just win at least 364 EVs?  Did he not just win usually hard-core Republican states like IN and NC?

Seems to me like that's a mandate for progressive change.

Aw, c'mon! (0.00 / 0)
Now you're just talking crazy talk!
[ Parent ]
Indiana and North Carolina (0.00 / 0)
Where have I seen those two states mentioned together before?  :)  As for the long primary, obviously it worked out for the best.  In large part because Hillary Clinton really worked wholeheartedly for Barack Obama in the fall.



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

We owe thanks to Hillary Clinton... (0.00 / 0)
I didn't believe it at the time, and perhaps I'm giving her too much credit, but she really did force Obama to build an organization and compete in every state.
[ Parent ]
Alaska (0.00 / 0)
Anyone have an explanation for why turnout seems to have dropped from 308,000 in 2004 to 221,000 this year.

Thats seems insanely unlikely. There have to be some more votes somewhere, right? Is it possible early votes haven't been counted yet?

That actually seems more likely than the election of a convicted felon.

Absentees not counted. (0.00 / 0)
For whatever reason absentee ballots are not counted on election day.  They expect about 60,000 to 70,000 ... it's not clear to me whether they expect to start or finish counting those in 10 days.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2...

[ Parent ]
Chris is the man (0.00 / 0)
the election forecasting man! Congratulations.
Unfortunately, Prop 8 (0.00 / 0)
This was a hugely crushing blow.  I'm totally bummed.  The joy I felt last night has just evaporated almost completely.

Shitty.

Republicans can't fix our country; they're too busy saddlebacking.

hang in there. I moved to Mass for equal rights. (0.00 / 0)
It'll happen nationwide IF Obama picks the right SCOYUS justices an we get lucky with Scalia having "health problems" and having to quit.

For some reason, it seems that Obama has some pathological and deep-seated psychological need for Republicans to like him.  Seriously.  It's weird.
[ Parent ]
Eric Massa actually in trouble (4.00 / 1)
The news in upstate NY this morning is that while Massa is hanging on to a 4,000-vote lead, there's 20,000 uncounted absentee ballots and Kuhl isn't conceding. With the bitter history between these two I bet Kuhl will demand a recount even if he loses and might even sue.

We also nearly lost my district in a sleeper -- Mike Arcuri barely squeaked out a win in a race that had no polling, no press, no attention, no targeting by either CCC. This was Sherwood Bohlert's old district and so has a long-term habit of voting R, and old habits die hard. Absentees have yet to be counted but there's not too many and Arcuri has come from behind to post a 6,000 vote lead with all precincts in.

FL (0.00 / 0)
Florida trend-buster Alan Grayson (the only Florida Democratic challenger to win)

I thought Kosmas won over Feeney in FL-24?

No, I do not weep at the world — I am too busy sharpening my oyster knife.
    Zora Neale Hurston

Omnibus Overnight Results Thread | 28 comments
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