Thoughts on Alaska? (0.00 / 0)

The Kos/Research 2000 poll had Begich ahead 22 points... how could a poll possible be that wrong. I mean... have you ever heard of a state-wide poll that was 22+ points off?!?! Something is very fishy up there.

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by: Jack @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 04:00:23 AM CST

Reposted from another thread.... (0.00 / 0)

....my gut feeling is Burner loses by 3000 votes.  This is depressing.

I hope I'm wrong!

The numbers currently are a bit more optimistic than my gut (still 50/50 though).  The key to remember is that votes being tallied are a strange mixture of absentee votes and poll votes.  This leads to percentages and how they are distributed, as votes come in, to jump around a lot.

My Rough numbers:

***2006***
King County % of total vote: 81.1% (-0.15%  Darcy Loss)
Pierce County % of total vote: 18.9% (-14.83% Darcy Loss)

***Currently (with 35% of 2006 vote total)***
King County % of total vote: 74.3% (+2.98%  Darcy Lead)
Pierce County % of total vote: 25.67% (-5.6% Darcy Lag)

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by: whitecenterlib @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 04:06:21 AM CST

Those numbers look good (4.00 / 1)

Not sure why you are depressed. According to your numbers, Darcy has improved in both counties, and there is more vote to be counted in King. That looks like a win, if you are right.

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by: Chris Bowers @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 04:19:56 AM CST

[ Parent ]

No I don't think so (0.00 / 0)

See my 2am update post below.

I'm seeing the same pattern as last cycle.  Something to do with who votes when and how the two counties count the votes.

On election night 2006, Burner was winning King County and winning overall (at least most of the night, barely).

As new votes were reported, Reichert's % advantage grew in Pierce County over the next few days and her lead in King County kept shrinking.

Ultimately, she lost King County by ~210 votes and Pierce County by ~ 7000 votes.

My gut theory (which can be wrong):
I grew up in this district.  I have a ton of friend's parents still living here.  This demographic (over 50) will overwhelmingly support Reichert IMO.  There's a lot of them in this district.  Furthermore, I think they are a good representation of this district as a whole.  Her TV ads, her age, and the local media smear jobs will largely work against her with this demographic and thus with the whole electorate.

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by: whitecenterlib @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 04:52:03 AM CST

[ Parent ]

2am update (4.00 / 1)

....more votes in for King County.  No update from Pierce yet.

KC % of total district vote is now around ~83%.  Burner's lead in KC is down to 1.23%.

As of right now, with about 53% of the district wide vote at the 2006 finally vote count now in, Darcy is winning by:

70 (seventy) votes.

NOT GOOD.  Last cycle, all the votes counted after election day broke towards Reichert by a sizeable margin.

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by: whitecenterlib @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 04:28:27 AM CST

[ Parent ]

As of this morning... (0.00 / 0)

with 100% reporting, Darcy wins by just sixty votes. Wow! Can this be final? Has the SS certified it? Surely we're headed for a recount here.

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by: corax @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 04:52:55 AM CST

No No No (0.00 / 0)

Only roughly 50% of the vote is in.  This race isn't settled!

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by: whitecenterlib @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 05:01:59 AM CST

[ Parent ]

you're right (0.00 / 0)

damn, I completely misread the chart. Percentage of precincts reporting isn't even on there. What the hell is taking them so long?

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by: corax @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 09:58:43 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Darcy Losing (0.00 / 0)

....by 880 votes (more pierce county votes have come in).

Still up 1.23% in KC (same as 2am PST results).

Please, please let Darcy win!

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by: whitecenterlib @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 10:47:32 AM CST

Pierce County (0.00 / 0)

Forgot to add, she's down in Pierce County by 8.2%.

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by: whitecenterlib @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 10:50:10 AM CST

[ Parent ]