Looks like 364-174, with Obama winning the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Doesn't look good in Missouri.
Right now, turnout is at about 119 million, which would be down 3 million from 2004. However, there are millions of absentee ballots still to be counted, possibly three million in California alone.
In the popular vote, looks like Obama won by about 6.5%. That number could grow to 7.0% as ore votes are counted.
Democrats have 54 seats, Republicans 40, and Independents 2. There are four remaining campaigns:
- We are tailing in Alaska, and it doesn't look good. Probably one for Republicans. Something strange happened in Alaska.
- Georgia will have a run-off. Four more weeks of campaigning for Jim Martin.
- Minnesota is headed to a recount. Right now, Coleman leads by 694 votes, with all precincts reporting. The provisional ballots, which always favor Democrats, will come into play as well. Not over by a longshot. AP already retracted their call for Coleman. Recount and certification will take at least two weeks.
- Oregon is close, but seems like it will be OK.
If we win Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon, we get the Employee Free Choice Act. However, we need all three. Right now, I think we are only the favorite in one (Oregon). I can see pulling off one upset, but both will be difficult.
Swing State Project has the most concise round-up I can find. It looks like Democrats have 256 seats right now, counting ID-01, MD-01, and VA-05 for our side, with six undecided. Three campaigns, NJ-03, SC-01, and WA-08 are yet to be counted. There will be two run-offs in Louisiana. Also, CA-04 is headed to a recount, but we are trailing.
This is a net 20-seat pickup so far. Looks like we will come in on the lower end of my 21-27 seat range, and probably not hit the 24 which I labeled my best guess.
Most campaigning is over, but there is still another month to go in some areas. I will continue to monitor the 2008 elections as long as they continue.
Update: Democrat Adler wins NJ-03. That makes a 21 seat gain for Democrats.
Update 2: It appears we have lost SC-01.