I disagree on Boswell (0.00 / 0)

I think that district is only vulnerable because he is a bad campaigner, and would be safe in the hands of another Dem. But otherwise, I think this is a very good chart, and I thank you for producing it.

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by: Chris Bowers @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 12:31:37 PM CDT

No Disagreement, Really (0.00 / 0)

I was only trying to address the big picture using a consistent methodological view.  Obviously once you start looking seat-by-seat all sort of other considerations come into play.

I mean, look at Zack Space's margin of victory, for example.  Can he really be that vulnerable?  Aren't people expecting something more from him?

But, here I was just trying to lay down a baseline.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 14:01:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, he can (0.00 / 0)

Space ran for the seat vacated by Bob Ney.  Assuming Ohio Republicans don't melt down quite as badly in 2008 as they did in 2006, he could face serious competition.

And Boswell should be a top target for a primary if it is at all possible to recruit someone serious against him.

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by: Whoppo @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 15:38:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I know The History of The Seat (0.00 / 0)

But still. 62%.

And Ney vacated after Space had won the primary, and released a poll showing Space beating Ney 46% to 35%.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 15:58:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Dude (0.00 / 0)

Facing Bob Ney would be way, way easier than facing a random (reasonably-funded) Republican.  Surely you understand this.

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by: Whoppo @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 16:59:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, But Look At Their Record In The District (0.00 / 0)

Joy Padget?

A taste that foul takes some time to rinse out.

And Space is the incumbent now.

I'm not saying it will be a cakewalk.  I just think that he's more realistically Tier 2.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 17:04:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Texas Reps (0.00 / 0)

Nick Lampson in Texas is almost certainly going to lose no matter how he votes. He represents Tom Delay's district. Democrats were never supposed to have that seat in the first place and I would be shocked if he won re-election. I'm sure he is trying to protect his own hide by voting as conservatively as possible, but the reality is that he's going to lose no matter what he does. It is a massively red district. Nobody in Texas thinks he has a prayer of winning. I am 100% behind targeting him in the Bush Dogs campaign.

Chet Edwards is just a well loved Democrat who somehow manages to keep winning in a Republican district. He probably voted the way he did because he genuinely thinks that's what his constituents wanted. I think he could be pressured to change his vote, but only if he hears from constituents.

Cuellar and Rodriguez ought to get primary challengers. No doubt about it.

That's my two and a half cents.

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by: astrodem @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 12:55:18 PM CDT

IL-18 (0.00 / 0)

Melissa Bean is still not in IL-18. She is in IL-08. The PVI for IL-08 is R+5.2, the PVI for IL-18 is R+5.5. IL-18 is the district being vacated by Ray LaHood.

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by: EricV @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 13:23:19 PM CDT

My Bad. (0.00 / 0)

Fixed.

Plus, alphabetized within tiers. (What was I thinking?)

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 14:21:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Lipinski (0.00 / 0)

Lipinski is, IMHO, the worst of all the Bush Dogs and most vulnerable and necessary to primary (support Mark Pera!), but he isn't exactly a "newbie". Yes it's only his 2nd term, but his dad, Bill Lipinski, represented the district for the previous 11 terms before withdrawing after the primary in 2004 and convincing Illinois Democratic party leaders to put his son on the ballot.

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by: EricV @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 13:32:01 PM CDT

Lipinski #1 (0.00 / 0)

Lipinski has quite the hack resume, doesn't he?  (Worked for Daddy, worked for Daley . . . .) 

Mark Pera just got a contribution from me for 2 reasons--he is anti Iraq War (get out soon) and pro-choice, while Danny Lipinski is neither.  I'd put Lipinski at the top of the list, particularly since there is a candidate already running against him with some local cred (elected several times to the school board, currently President) who is willing to take strong stands.

After him I'd put Costa, who is just a corporatist hack, based on his years in the CA Legislature, but I don't think he has a challenger.

Maybe if we get behind existing primaries against one or two of them, and if the locals can make calls and write the top tier ones, a few others will either shape up or attract a primary and maybe we can get somewhere.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

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by: Mimikatz @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 16:10:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Progressive Punch scores (4.00 / 1)

Tim Walz has a good overall Progressive Punch score of 90.88 and Charlie Wilson is at 88.64.  Lipinski (83.51)and Ciro are the only others over 80.

The scores by Tier:

Tier I: Altmire (72.63), Barrow (67.35), Bean (75.52), Boswell (70.83), Carney (76.92), Hill (74.57), Lampson (75.16), Marshall (63.20), Shuler (71.32), Space (79.92), Walz (90.88).

Tier II:  Donnelly (73.64), Edwards (69.07), Ellsworth (74.12), Melancon (68.89), Ciro Rodriguez (83.36).

Safe:  Boren (60.51), Boyd (61.84), Chandler (79.22)  Cooper (71.93), Costa (77.81), Cramer (58.68), L. Davis (68.01), Etheridge (77.58), Gordon (69.45), Herseth (75.48), Lipinski (83.51), Mattheson (65.58), McIntyre (62.82), Peterson (59.63), Pomeroy (74.72), Ross (72.79), Salazar (79.82), Snyder (77.65), Tanner (63.19), Wilson (88.64), Taylor (50.15).

Even Taylor is about 20 points higher than Chris Shays who is at 31 the highrest scoring Republican in the House.  Shays has had an annpying tendency of voting the Party line on key votes.  Ron Paul at 23 is the third highest scoring Republican.  In most cases you will get a standard issue GOP clone at around a score of 5 as a replacement.  Moderates used to be in the 20s, even the high 20s but now after 2006 faux moderates cluster around 15 or even less.

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 16:27:34 PM CDT

Okay. I Can Take A Hint (4.00 / 1)

Interesting that Tier One averages 74.39, Tier Two averages 73.82, and safe districts average 70.42.

That would seem to suggest that maybe the Tier Ones are more influenced by perceived risk, while the safe districts are just SOBs.  But, it's a pretty modest difference.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 16:56:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Love the quote on quote Bush Dogs Because Lets Take A Look! (0.00 / 1)

First of all the Bush Dogs are those Blue Dogs, unlike you all extremist socialist democrats they are what the old democratic party was and that was strong on national defense and capitalist duh.  Without them would you like to have a Speaker of the House John A. Boehner  I think heck no because look at the house for that fact with 38 less democrats their would be  240 republicans and 195 democrats that would give the republicans back control of congress.  I think you all damn yankees and left coasters democrats should think, which you all kind of democrats cant win in my home state of Tennessee because it takes a moderately conservative democrat to win in my state.  So, just sit you damn asses back and take a breather and thank god you have us democrats in Southern Congressional Swing district because if you had it your way Republicans would rule the roost in the South, and in congress by the way!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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by: bluedogtenn @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 18:17:30 PM CDT

Uh, yeah. (4.00 / 3)

And how do explain why Blue Dog Harold Ford was one of the few Democrats to LOSE in the Democratic tsunami of 2006?

The day of the Blue Dog is over. Even in Tennessee.

Montani semper liberi

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by: Sadie Baker @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 18:46:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Are you really a democrat? (0.00 / 0)

"exremist socialist democrats"

ha.  If you are, maybe don't listen to Rush so much.  You're ingesting his talking points.

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by: Daniel De Groot @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 22:36:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Damn Yankees, Huh? (0.00 / 0)

Kust give us back the socialist TVA, and we'll call it even!

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Fri Aug 24, 2007 at 23:14:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Response to the three questions above! (0.00 / 0)

I will gladly give back the great TVA if y'all will take back the fucking Manhattan project because that cause my grandfather a horrible case of cancer that coincided with the exposure to that horrendous radiation of the Nuclear Bomb production at Oak Ridge.  I don't see why it was not built in Manhattan because that was what it was titled, but of course y'all didn't want to take that risk, which you put it off on us southerner's to do that despicable act.  Plus, if we didn't build that damn atomic bomb we would have lost World War II and that would have given Japan the upper hand because the bomb was what propitiated the end to that hellish war.  Now onto Harold Ford, he was born a black man, which I can't help that, but their will never be a black elected to the US Senate from the heart of Dixie and the South in general.  I did vote for Harold Ford exactly because I am a Democrat, and can't and could not stand that idiot nincompoop of Bob Corker.  Plus, when Bob Corker won I was sick for weeks even though my party took back control of congress, and Harold Ford is the best black politician in America and the smartest and if he can't win no one ever will.  Harold Ford is a better politician than that Barrack Obama because he said "I'll meet with the rogue dictators like Iran's leader."  Plus, Rush Limbaugh is an ass, and it disgusts me that you think I listen to his talking points, and by the way I don't listen to talk radio at all.  I would rather listen to music like country music of soft rock to take my mind off the crap that is going on with this President.  I am sorry for being so hard on y'all Yankee's, but I was pissed off with your alls take on blue dog democrats like Lincoln Davis and Cooper in my state whom supported the Senate bid of Harold Ford Jr., and down here we call him simply JR.  Plus what hurt JR was his damn father for losing his senses in taking money in the Tennessee Waltz investigation.

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by: bluedogtenn @ Sat Aug 25, 2007 at 18:13:08 PM CDT

I do have some sympathy there (0.00 / 0)

Especially as how we replaced a blue-dogger in Memphis with a stalwart progressive, I think people should focus less of their attention to Tennessee. I think the only one who even remotely deserves a primary challenge is Jim Cooper, and that's because he comes from a safe district. Lincoln Davis is probably the best you'll get from his district, and it's quite a miracle he's there in the first place. For Gordon and (especially) Tanner, I think the best you can do is put constituency urgings to support more populist/progressive measures, but they're institutions there and those seats will probably remain blue dog after their retirements.

I tend to have what I call a "Chet Edwards Standard", where if Chet sides with the caucus on one thing, but other blue-dogs do not, it's not acceptable or justifiable (as Edwards holds the most Republican (D) district). Of course, you could also argue that ALL Texas districts are really less Republican since we're using the Bush vote PVI, which are inflated due to the Favorite Sons effect, and that Edwards' PVI less. This also has to make Lampson pretty happy as his 65% Bush district is probably closer to 60%, and trending Democratic (it has a growing Hispanic and African and Asian population).

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by: KainIIIC @ Sat Aug 25, 2007 at 23:08:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]