| Note: This is my final diary (well, for today at least) mining the Democracy Corps report, "The Change Election Awaiting Change", for nuggets of wonky goodness.
What if the Versailles punditalkcrazy were reality-based? Just for one weekend, say. What would they be talking about now? One hot topic would probably be the horribly divided state of the GOP in the wake of its staggering electoral loss. And one of the best illustrations of that deeply divided state is reflected in this question asked by Democracy Corps, about how Republicans should respond to Barack Obama and his agenda [click for wider version]:
An overwhelming majority of everyone else wants Republicans to cooperate with Obama. But Republicans themselves are split right down the middle--45% say "cooperate", 47% say, "no way." There's nothing really new in this division, it's been there for a long, long time, usually deeply buried because the GOP leadership is so expert at burying such things. But the fact that is shows up now, so starkly in this way is indicative of just how bad things have become for the GOP. |
| The GOP turnout for this election was roughly 32%, so just under half that is roughly 15%, and that's just about the size of the hard core conservative voting base. Even they are much more liberal than the movement conservative ideological core, which is only around 1%, but they're a respectable chunk of voters, which can't really be said about 1% of the population.
Where do I get these figures? I've written about them various times, for example, back in late June in "The Deep--And Hidden--Divide In American Politics":
Social Spending--Round 1
Next, we look at another combined measure, which measures support for social spending on aix national priorities:
A. Improving and protecting the environment.
B. Improving and protecting the nation's health
C. Solving the problems of the big cities
D. Improving the nation's education system
E. Improving the conditions of Blacks
F. Welfare
Again, the movement conservative position is clear: none of this is any of the government's business. Just to be merciful, I'm going to start off with a measure that lumps things together into big chunks. That way, conservatives can claim anyone who wants to cut more than they want to hold steady or increase spending--a much bigger group of people than those who want to cut everything. But even being exceedingly generous, the number of conservative believers is a tiny minority--again, even less than the 23% Bush dead-enders:
See that 15.5% who think we're spending too much on 1-6 programs, net? That's the roughly 15% I'm talking about. It's about the same size as the hard core of GOP believers who approve of Dick Cheney. And right now, around the issue of whether the GOP should work with Barack Obama or oppose him, this hard core of GOP true believers stands exposed in the national spotlight as the marginal group they truly are.
Of course, they are not alone, scattered across the country. They have a powerful political movement speaking for them. It's what usually manages to rally the other half of the GOP voting base, and from their they build out to include GOP-leaning independents, and willing tools in the Versailles media, to browbeat every last Democrat they can drag before the cameras, to send a message to America--"We are not a tiny, isolated minority, we are the real Americans! And if you stand against us, you're nothing but a lily-livered traitor!
That's how it works in normal times. That 15% is like Oz the Great and Terrible, hiding behind the curtain. But every once in a while, something miraculous happens. Toto pulls back the curtin, and we can see what a tiny little force lurks behind the deceptive apparatus of power. Now is one of those times. And the question before is is what can we do to make the most of it--and perhaps, just perhaps, use this moment of revelation to change our politics deeply, profoundly, and forever.
It's precisely because the GOP is in this weakened state right now that the Versailles punditalkcrazy is so adamantly pressuring Obama and the Democrats, trying to put them--and us--on the defensive. The reality, as almost always, is the exact opposite of what our political masters tell us it is. |
