Ras PA: Obama 51% McCain 47% (distantshore)
O-2, M+2 since last poll


The crosstabs show how silly that result is:

While Ras PA went from +7 to +4, Obama's white support actually ticked UP 1.

Ras has the AA vote now at 80-20 when he had it 93-5 before.


Now, do you REALLY think the AA vote is 80-20?

stop hating on boomersun's concern

[ Parent ]
uh... Boomer didn't post this one
unless he made a new account

[ Parent ]
no, but he's being very concerned down below

[ Parent ]
You can get ointment for that

[ Parent ]
And then change your pants.

[ Parent ]
I would think one is directly related to the other!

[ Parent ]
Strategic vision had O+5
Mason Dixon had O+4
Ras has O +4

Everyone still confident?

When McCain is ahead or tied then let's talk.

Did anyone really expect Obama to win PA by more than 5 points?

Also, was this poll taken all of yesterday? If it was, I think that may have skewed the results given it was Halloween.

[ Parent ]
If Obama gets 4% more of the vote, he wins the state. So if that's the best McCain can do three days before the election with the three most R-friendly pollsters, we're good.

I can't wait to see what you find to worry about on Wednesday.

[ Parent ]
Are those all republican leaning polls? Strategic Vision and Mason Dixon in particular?

[ Parent ]
SV definitely
M-D is non-partisan but they certainly skew a little to the right.

[ Parent ]
you guys are getting ridiculous. The poll skews in favor of McCain b/c of halloween?  

[ Parent ]
You don't think younger people were away from the phone yesterday?

[ Parent ]
Look at my above comment re: Internals

[ Parent ]
Um, one guy said that.
Not "you guys"

[ Parent ]
at this point, perhaps someone other than you
should be making accusations of "ridiculousness"

[ Parent ]
I can help you.
Go to this link.   http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Print it out and look at it whenever you feel gloomy.  

[ Parent ]
But you could always do something to alleviate your nervousness.

[ Parent ]
See the comment right above yours.  Somehow McCain picked up 15 points among black folks.  That's the difference.  If you believe that, I've got a bridge in AK I'd love to sell you.

Stop picking out only the polls that agree with you.

[ Parent ]
McCain's support rocketing among AA's!!!!
It so makes sense! McCain and Palin's charges against Obama of socialism and associating with Scary People was designed to resonate with the critical swing voters of this cycle: black folks.

[ Parent ]
McCain's campaign says that Obama is getting 97% of the AA vote so if that is the case and this poll shows him only getting 80%, then Obama is up by about 7 points in PA based on what MCCAIN'S POLLSTER says.

[ Parent ]
I'm going to laugh at you on Tuesday
I'm actually laughing at you right now.

[ Parent ]
Yep. +4 and +5 means win
Besides, the Republican-leaning pollsters show Obama consistently ahead.  That should make you feel good, since the other polls show an entirely different picture (Quinnipiac, Marist, AP/GfK, Temple University, etc.,) one you conveniently ignore or dismiss.  

[ Parent ]
Even Rasmussen says Obama ahead with PA indies
That is usually a decent guide to who wins a given state.

[ Parent ]
Then it's a blowout there.
No way does Obama win Indies without winning by a strong margin.  As stevie said above, it looks like Ras just got a hold of a weird AA sample.

[ Parent ]
Yes but AAs
are starting to break for McCain, as this poll clearly proves!

/concern troll

[ Parent ]
forget it, the urge to concern troll is just too great for this one

[ Parent ]
Me too -- yes, still confident, yes, yes, yes! A thousand times yes!

[ Parent ]
Obama internals obviously don't show a problem
Since he isn't planning on a last minute visit.

I can't believe people are freaking out about polling in these last few days. If Obama was really in danger in PA, I think the campaign would've sent him back by now.

What did Joe the Plumber say about his knowledge of foreign policy?
"I know just enough to be dangerous," or something like that.  Well, now that there is so much public polling available, I guess we're seeing the same phenomenon.

[ Parent ]
McCain getting 20% of the AA vote in Penn is ridiculous. However, I don't think that can solely account for the O-2, M+2 since their last poll...Is that the only change that internals show?

The premise of a McCain comeback in PA
Is based on white reluctance to Obama. Ras has Obama ticking up with whites.

[ Parent ]
I haven't seen the internals, but...
...yes, the apparent wild swing in the AA vote could account for the entire difference.  See ben's comment below for the math.  Or to put it more succinctly, with the poll apparently showing about a net 30-point swing to McCain among AAs (Obama down about 15, McCain up 15), if AAs are 13% of the sample, that means a swing of 13*.3 = 3.9 points.  And there's your 4-point overall swing.

[ Parent ]
Effect of the Silly AA Number
You wouldn't think a small, but significant swing about 12-14% of the sample would be that big of a deal, right?

In 2004, AA's made up 13% of the vote there (I know it'll likely increase this year, but bear with me)

Under this poll that means that of that 13%, Obama takes 10.4 and McCain 2.6. In other words, a total net of 7.8% for Obama.

The last poll they did in PA had Obama winning AA's 93-5, which would be a 12.09-.65 split. I.e. a 11.4% advantage for Obama.

The skew in the A-A sample in this poll likely cost Obama 3.6 points even when using a conservative AA turnout number.

I live in PA and am not surprised that this shows tightening.  I am working all weekend on GOTV.  Not a concern troll here at all here but would feel better if Obama made a trip back here before Tuesday.  Kerry only won this state by 2.  Rasmussen and Mason Dixon did show in their final polls four years ago Kerry +2.

Remember, there's always NC, NV, OH, FL etc
which are still our way, even if everyone is wrong about PA. And the more time McSame spends there, the less he can spend recovering in other places.  

CO, VA, NV, IA, NM + Kerry minus PA is one of several firewalls.

[ Parent ]
The problems with this poll have been pointed out...
....the bigger one is the propaganda value for the McCain campaign that they are "making a comeback"...  and the press will dutifully jump along the bandwagon.

Every one of these "tightening" polls is from a republican pollster who have an obvious agenda.  We need a democratic pollster to balance things out here...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

Let them hype this poll!
The only real concern is that on Nov 4, too many O supporters are too confident and lazy to go to their damn polling place. Stories of a plausible McCain path to victory through PA or whatever, especially if its based on a poll as dubious as this one, is the really about the best thing one could hope for if you are an Obama supporter.  

[ Parent ]

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