After a year it's worth looking back to when the United States elected a Democrat to the office of President of the United States with a majority of popular votes, the electoral college, and no input from the Supreme Court for the first time in 32 years. The changes in the behavior and composition of the electorate over those 30 years have been dramatic. The maps below show 2008 results and compare them to 1988.
Click to enlarge.
More maps and analysis for the nostalgic can be found in a diary here.
This diary is the introduction to a series exploring the electorate of 2008.
It's the most...wonderful...time...of the year. That is, the time when the data for the 2008 elections finally comes in.
Generally, new versions of state files come in at a steady trickle, growing to a near-unmanageable flood as the election draws near. But early in the new year after an election, there will be more than usual. Why? The long-awaited arrival of vote history and final new registration figures for the 2008 general.
Just the fact of this election is hard to fathom. There have been change elections before this one. Reagan. Lincoln. Kennedy. All come to mind. All were defining moments in American history.
And yet, for me, this particular election has some kind of special significance. It's not just that I'm here, I'm alive, and I'm witnessing this piece of history. It's not just that America has just shaken off the shackles of the last 8 years of a criminal regime and reclaimed the best of what our democracy represents. It's not just that America has shaken off the last 200 years and risen above the petty politics of race to elect the most passionate, intelligent leader we've seen in a long time. It's not just that the catharsis of seeing the vindication of the movement that Obama created is an emotionally overwhelming experience. Keith Olbermann compared this election to the moon landing. It's more than that, though. The historical importance of this election is akin to nothing that we've seen in a century.
There really isn't a lot left to say as we head into the final 24 hours of the campaign. First, and most important, Kelly, Amanda and I want to thank everyone who has helped in any way with the campaign. The one thing I will take away from this experience, regardless of the outcome on Tuesday, is the people I've met, the communities I've visited and the stories we've shared.
It has also been encouraging how many people have stepped up over the last 2 weeks to help with donations to the campaign. Once our opponent got desperate and decided to go negative there were many people and organizations who stepped up and sent in late donations. These late donations allowed us to expand our media advertising and create a second TV ad to combat the distortions coming from our opponent's campaign.
In 2004, youth turnout was wildly misreported - in the media and in the blogosphere. That reporting was summed up most aptly by this famous quip from the late Hunter S. Thompson:
"Yeah, we rocked the vote all right," quips Hunter S. Thompson, the gonzo journalist himself. "Those little bastards betrayed us again."
Of course Thompson, and the media reports, were wrong. The youth vote did turnout and was the only age demographic to vote for Kerry over Bush.
This year, expectations for the youth vote are higher than ever - perhaps unrealistically so - and the expectations game is already beginning to result in "youth don't vote" stories in local and regional media. For instance, in Florida, the Orlando Sentinel had this to say:
It is important to ensure the wave extends as far as possible at the State House, Senate, AG, SoS, Gov, Lt.Gov, Mayor, Judge, City Council, School Board, Sheriff and dogcatcher level. Seriously, even at the bottom level Republicans can do a lot of harm. Just imagine cat-killer Bill Frist as your dogcatcher or Sarah Palin on your school board.
In addition to the vital function of building the Democratic bench strength, the State Legislatures and Governorships will be particularly important for the coming redistricting, as the DLCC says:
Time and time again, Republicans have shown that they will cut the Democratic voter base and gerrymander districts in favor of their incumbents, and now, when they take control of a legislature, they aren't even willing to wait until the end of the decade before they go to work.
Currently, of the 36 state legislatures that control Congressional redistricting, 27 chambers in 21 of these states are within 5 seats of tying or changing hands.
These 21 states control 260 Congressional districts.
McCain's best hope for victory requires taking a Kerry state big enough to offset the losses of Colorado, Virginia, Iowa and New Mexico. If he could hold all the rest of the Bush states (including Nevada) and take Pennsylvania, he wins 273-265.
So, McCain has been barnstorming PA lately as part of operation Infinite Delusion. They have 15 events held or scheduled in PA for the month of October including 7 by McCain himself, 6 by Palin, and 4 by Cindy (2 are joint McCain/Palin events). How's that working for him? October's PA polling:
Tell you what there Rocky, I don't think you'll be running up the steps with a crowd cheering you onto victory anytime soon.
With only seven days until the polls close, most campaigns have already made their final media purchases for this cycle. However, even though campaigns are winding down their paid media purchases, there is still plenty of time for you to run a low-cost, easily changed, personalized paid advertising campaign for whatever swing state or whatever congressional campaign you wish.
It is time to ramp up the Personal Paid Media campaign. Between now and the election, I will personally run at least 15 of these, and probably closer to 30. In the last twenty-four hours alone, I started three new Google Ad campaigns, all targeted at key congressional races. Check them out in the extended entry.
Yesterday, I met Reagan Democrats waiting on line in Pittsburgh who are happily voting for Obama.
They're finally fed up, disgusted and know the whole thing was nothing more than a bunch of bullshit and one big con game on the American people.
Doors opened at 3PM at the Mellon Arena.
But before we got in, we waited on line. And what do you do on a long line? You talk to the people around you. I talked to two woman who had come from a Pittsburgh suburb about an hour away. They were unabashed Republican. One said, "they've (the Republican Party) destroyed us". Her Republican friend was a "straight up" healthcare voter.
Then they grabbed me by the arm and whispered, "we're Obama Republicans, don't believe what you read in the papers. So are lots of our neighbors, I'm positive there are thousands of us here."
The Mellon Center arena seats 16,958 for ice hockey, 17,132 at standing room capacity. It was PACKED!
The campaign schedule has been pretty intense over the last week and will continue to be so until the BIG day on Tuesday, November 4th. I want to congratulate everyone for putting so much effort into this year's election, not just for an individual campaign, but for the entire Democratic ticket. I've seen people in every community throughout the 5th district working to make sure the message is getting out.
I want to remind everyone it is important that we finish strong. Don't take anything for granted, ignore the polls and work like the polls show our candidates 5 points down. Remember, while all indications show Barack Obama will be our next president, if we believe the polls, Al Gore would be concluding his second term or we would be working to re-elect President John Kerry right now.
McCain said having Democrats in control of the White House, the U.S. House of Representatives under Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and the Senate under Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, would give Democrats unfettered power.(...)
"We can't let that happen. Are you ready for Obama, Pelosi and Reid?" the Arizona senator said.
Is that a rhetorical question? I mean, isn't the entire reason that McCain is losing and Democrats are poised to make sweeping gains precisely because people want to remove Republicans from power and replace them with Democrats?
What am I missing here? There wouldn't be a threat of Democrats taking total control unless that is what most people wanted to see happen. Hard for me to think of too many voters saying: "hmmm... I was going to vote for Democrats, but now that I realize that might actually cause Democrats to win, I think I will switch."
Shorter McCain: if more people vote for Democrats, then Democrats will win. Well, duh. Still, thanks for reminding everyone.
What a difference a cycle makes. Already, we are seeing more and more great pieces written about the impact of new media on the election. It is far greater than is apparent in just the massive online fundraising numbers that Barack Obama is posting from online donors.
As Peter Daou aptly pointed out, the netroots carried forth when many traditional sources of power were silenced.
The other day Arianna brought up the fact that the Republicans are running from an old playbook, one where the traditional media takes any charge, say whether a candidate actually earned his purple hearts, and carries it forward donkey-esque as the 'other side of the story.' While this ignores a basic relationship, the opposite of the truth is a lie not another truth, it's how politics used to work (and still does partially.)
If you click over to Opensecrets.org, you might see this little promo:
click it, and they say:
For the first time ever in U.S. history, the candidates for president have raised more than $1 billion. To find out where all this money is coming from, click on the candidates' names below and explore the options to the left.[...]
Never mind that the figures don't include September's haul, the problem here is the pervasive economic sin of doing absolute value comparisons between eras.
It's the same silly reason that All Time Box Office lists like this one make it appear that Titanic and Pirates of the Caribbean did better at the box office than E.T. or Gone With The Wind. It's easy to top the list with the same number of ticket sales at say $14/person versus the $2-4 it probably cost to see a movie in 1982. I'm pretty sure the concept of inflation is now considered common knowledge so I think it's time we stop pretending it doesn't exist.
Some context inside on past election spending in context.
Earlier this week I received an email from a 5th district voter with very strong pro-life beliefs who would like to vote for me. She told me via email that she is comfortable that I am Catholic and my stance on pro-life issues is similar to that of Sen. Robert Casey. She feels it is very likely Barack Obama will be elected President and the Democratic Party will gain seats Congress. Where her concern lies is what actions a newly inaugurated President Barack Obama and a United States Congress with a strong Democratic majority will take after January of 2009. She is afraid there will be a far left agenda that will attempt to overturn pro-life initiatives put into effect like the ban on partial birth abortions.
In my response back to her, I explained that my agenda when I arrive in Washington will be exactly what I've been campaigning on. I want to concentrate on fiscal responsibility, a national energy policy that stresses domestically produced alternative fuels, health care and health insurance reform, saving and strengthening Social Security, rescinding No Child Left Behind and bringing our troops home from Iraq. I also mentioned that I will not stand for Congress losing sight of what the agenda must be -- solving the problems important to the middle class.
It is fair to say that 2008 is shaping up to have the necessary ingredients for a Democratic mandate, but such things are never certain so it would be good to put some thought into what needs to happen for a broad mandate for progressive change.
The first thing to understand is that a mandate is a phenomenon of mass psychology and not any kind of empirical or solidly quantifiable event. It is the result of the individual beliefs of some critical mass of voters believing there is a mandate which will then move the whole zeitgeist in the media, and then in congress too. The exact size and nature of that threshold is difficult to guess, but the key ingredient is that there has to be a widespread belief in a mandate, in addition to the requisite levels of support and enthusiasm for the agenda.
My notes and commentary from two debates in Connecticut's 4th Congressional District on Tuesday, October 14th.
I grew up in the 4th CD, but moved away in 1994 - I spent a few days in town for a family reunion and did some volunteering for the Coordinated campaign. On Tuesday I attended the first and second of the Himes vs Shays debates, I'm told there are 7 in total scheduled.
See my notes after the flip, transcribed and edited in flight from CT to FL last night. Sequence of events in the debates is not linear.
Cross posted on DailyKos - I am not affiliated with any candidate or campaign
You should be able to watch live at Canada's C-Span, CPAC or just see static results at Elections Canada. You might also try watching CBC online (link on lower right).
I will update here, and the chart above as results come in after 10pm EST (for some reason the networks are saying polls close at 9:30EST - 7PM in BC is 10PM in Ontario, no?). Legally no results can be released until voting stops in BC and the Yukon, under the theory that voters out west should not have the advantage of knowing how the rest of the country voted before making up their minds. This is an open thread for the election, but inside some analysis of the last few days and what might happen here.
11:35PM Ok, it looks like the biggish events of the night are done. The NDP are hoping to keep their 1 Quebec seat, and the Conservatives would really like to win a seat in one of Canada's biggest 3 cities - they have a shot in Vancouver due to the 3-way split thing there. Locked out of Toronto and Montreal proper again.
Don't let the seat totals say more than they should, the Conservatives so far are only getting about 37% of the popular vote, and turn out is supposed to be quite low. 63% of Canadians did not want the Conservatives in charge. Yay British electoral system.
Not surprisingly, we are seeing on TV and across the nation a strong and sometimes vicious debate erupting about who or what is to blame for the financial meltdown that is impacting not only our domestic markets but world markets as well. This was also a hot subject at the debates and forums held this week for the candidates in the 5th district race.
It is very troubling to see certain people on the national scene attempt to blame this crisis on people who took out mortgages they could not afford. We are also hearing criticism that federal government policies put in place during the 90s to encourage home ownership by low income minorities was a major factor in the crisis.
