(Celtic Diva's Blue Oasis is one of Alaska's leading blogs. I'm HIGHLY suspicious of election shenanigans, but that only makes it more important to not go off half-cocked. This is a good, sober local perspective on what's happening up there. - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
Many people are shocked that convicted felon Ted Stevens could possibly be ahead of Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich in the fight for his US Senate seat, or that under-investigation Congressman Don Young has probably held on to his seat against Ethan Berkowitz. This seems especially dubious as polls that were correct in every other state were seemingly way off in Alaska. An article in the Anchorage Daily News titled "The Pollsters missed the mark" discusses this:
"The real question is where were the all the Democrats?" Dittman said, noting the voter turnout was supposed to be in record proportions. Instead, only an estimated 57 percent of registered voters had a say - a far drop from the 66 percent turnout in the 2004 presidential election, according to state elections division figures.
The issue of the incorrect polls has triggered some concern both here and in other parts of the country, especially on the "interwebs" where folks have raised the specter of a "rigged election." It's understandable that we're all having flashbacks to Alaska 2004, where the Division of Elections reported some precincts had over 100% turnout. (Voting "early and often" is not just a tongue-in-cheek saying in Chicago!)
However, we should all subscribe to the "Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy" mantra of "Don't Panic!" I can think of at least four five reasons why:
I'm really not temperamentally suited to being any better than any of you at making number-crunching prediction this close to the election. Yeah, I'll toss some numbers out--maybe. But my heart isn't it. I'm not interested in being right. I'm interested in dreaming big, making impossible predictions. Which is where October 2006 comes in. Because that's when I first let my thoughts about 2008 start to slip out... thoughts that had been seriously brewing since Katrina, 13 months earlier. Because that's what I do best.
Now, I didn't write specifically about 2008. Nostrodamus I am not. But I wrote about 2006 in terms of realigning elections, and I said that what was an overlooked key to them was two consecutive wave elections in the House. Well, it's pretty obvious what that means. We're about to say "hello" to number 2.
The chart below shows the House share controlled by Democrats (top, blue line) and the percent change in share (bottom, red line), regardless of whether its a gain or loss. The yellow lines mark the three realigning elections-two definite (1896 and 1932), one questionable, at best (1968). The dotted purple lines mark the congressional elections of 1974 and 1994:
As you can see, the volatility of House elections has declined significantly in the last few decades. Not shown on this chart is what happened in 2006--another wave election, smaller than 1994, in fact, a little bit smaller than 1980. But, of course, it started from a place of greater strength than GOP was before 1994. So being poised for a somewhat similar wave election this Tuesday, we really are set up for the first true realigning election since 1932. That's what I predicted two years ago, and I'm sticking with it.
More on what it means--and maybe what's ahead--on the flip.
This is the third is a series. Open seats were profiled first, then our top targets. This is the third, on longshots, then I'll revise the first two in light of recent primaries and events.
Initially, NY-13 moves from "Top Target" to "Open" with the retirement announcement from Vito Fossella. That now makes 25 Open Seats we can contest. I'm moving VA-02 (Drake) to Top Target because of the favorable picture in VA. It is R+6 and Gerald Nye is the Dem.
What makes a longshot? A heavily GOP seat with a stellar candidate, strong to phenomenal fundraising, lots of grassroots support, and unpopular incumbent. These are some of the factors that can propel a candidate to victory even in a strongly Republican district. Or maybe it is a slower-starting candidate in a more favorable district. In any event, here are some districts to watch, with the incumbent, PVI, challenger and, because most are "Safe R," a brief comment about what makes it worth watching.
AL-03 (Rogers) R+4 Josh Segall He's raising cash.
AZ-03 (Shadegg) R+6 Bob Lord Ditto.
CA-45 (Bono-Mack) R+3 Bornstein
CA-46 (Rohrabacher) R+5 Debbie Cook Huntington Beach mayor raises cash
CA-50 (Bilbray) R+5 Nick Leibham
CO-04 (Musgrave) R+9 Betsy Markey
FL-06 (Stearns) R+8 Tim Cunha
FL-08 (Keller) R+3 8/25 primary
FL-09 (Bilirakis) R+4 8/25 primary
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) R+4 Annette Tadddeo
FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart) R+6 Raul Martinez
FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart) R+4 Joe Garcia
IL-13 (Biggert) R+5 Scott Harper
IN-03 (Souder) R+16 Michael Mantegano
IN-04 (Buyer) R+17 Nels Anderson
OH-14 (LaTourette) R+2 Bill O'Neill
KS-04 (Tiahrt) R+12 Donald Betts, Jr.
NJ-05 (Garrett) R+4 primary, Shulman
NV-02 (Heller) R+8 Jill Derby
PA-03 (English) R+2 Kathleen Dahlkamper
PA-18 (Murphy) R+2 Steve O'Donnell
SC-01 (Brown) R+10 Linda Ketner Local businesswoman raising cash
SC-02 (Wilson) R+9 Rob Miller
TX-07 (Culberson) R+16 Michael Skelly local businessman raising cash
That's 24 longshots, some really longshots, to watch. The 3 South Florida seats are interesting, particularly as Obama tries to appeal to younger generation of Cuban-Americans who are more interested in contacts with Cuba than the elders. All 3 challengers look promising and are raising respectable amounts of money. Many rate these as "likely R" rather than safe R. The two South Carolina seats are also interesting, especially SC-01. They have been extensively covered at Swing State Project.
In addition to the 24 open seats discussed here, there are 20 top targets and, for the forthcoming last installment, 20 or more long shots. Incumbency is worth at least 5 points, so these seats all have a PVI of R+5 or better, or a strong candidate who at this point is raising nearly as much (>80%) or more money than their target or running against a scandal-plagued incumbent. Here are the seats, again with the incumbent, PVI, Dem candidate and Swing State Project ranking.
AK-01 (Young) R+14 Ethan Berkowitz Tossup
CT-04 (Shays) D+5 Jim Himes Lean R
FL-13 (Buchanan) R+4 Christine Jennings Likely R
FL-24 (Feeney) R+3 8/26 primary, Kosmas Likely R
ID-01 (Sali) R+19 Walt Minnick Likely R
IL-10 (Kirk) D+4 Dan Seals Lean R
MI-07 (Walberg) R+2 Mark Schauer Lean R
MI-09 (Knollenberg) Even Gary Peters Lean R
MO-06 (Graves) R+5 8/5 primary, Barnes Lean R
NC-08 (Hayes) R+3 Larry Kissell Lean R
NY-13 (Fossella) D+1 9/9 primary Tossup
NY-29 (Kuhl) R+6 Eric Massa Lean R
NV-03 (Porter) D+1 8/12 primary, Dina Titus Lean R
OH-01 (Chabot) R+1 Steve Dreihaus Lean R
OH-02 (Schmidt) R+13 Dr. Vic Wulsin Lean R
PA-15 (Dent) D+2 Sam Bennett Safe R
VA-05 (Goode) R+5 Tom Perriello Safe R
VA-10 (Wolf) R+5 Judy Feder Likely R
WA-08 (Reichert) D+2 Darcy Burner Lean R
WV-02 (Capito) R+5 Anne Barth Likely R
The two "safe R" seats were added because of the Dem PVI in PA-15, although Dent has proven to be a tough opponent, and the stellar fundraising of Tom Perriello in VA-05, which is a R+5 district. I might have moved that seat to Likely R. Some others we might have liked to see on this list such as CO-04 (Musgrave) are relegated to long shots at this point, primarily because of fundraising. But it's early, and some candidates have just gotten started. I'd guess at this point that we could take at least half of these seats, some of which (MI-07, NC-08, NY-29, WA-08) I might upgrade to tossups. Some of our best opportunities may come from the longshots. If we get 5 or more from that list, that would make at least 30 seats. But expect the picture to brighten as the campaign progresses.
With Tuesday's eight-point victory by Travis Childers in MS-01, a district with a PVI of R+10, nearly all of the open GOP-held seats must be considered to be in play this cycle. There are now 26 open GOP-held seats, and all but CO-06 (Tancredo) and MS-03 (Pickering) should be in play. We appear to lack a strong candidate in CO-06 (R+10) and MS-03 is an R+13 district. That leaves the following 24 seats, with their current occupant, PVI and Dem candidate(s) and current Swing State Project rating:
AL-02 (Everett) R+13 6/3 primary, Bright and others Likely R
AZ-01 (Renzi) R+6 9/2 primary, Kirkpatrick, Shanker Tossup
CA-04 (Doolittle) R+11 C. Brown Lean R
CA-52 (Hunter) R+9 6/3 primary, Butcher, Lumpkin Safe R
FL-15 (Weldon) R+4 8/25 primary, Blythe Likely R
IL-11 (Weller) R+1 Debbie Halvorsen Lean D
IL-18 (La Hood) R+5 Colleen Callaghan Likely R
LA-04 (McCrery) R+7 primary 11/3 Lean R
MD-01 (Gilchrest) R+10 Frank Kratovil Likely R
MN-03 (Ramstad) R+3 Ashwin Madia Tossup
MO-09 (Hulshof) R+7 8/5 primary, Gaw, Baker Likely R
NJ-03 (Saxton) D+3 John Adler Tossup
NJ-07 (Ferguson) R+1 Linda Stender Tossup
NM-01 (Wilson) D+2 6/3 primary, Heinrich Tossup
NM-02 (Pearce) R+6 6/3 primary, McCamley, Teague Likely R
NY-25 (Walsh) D+3 Dan Maffei Lean D
NY-26 (Reynolds) R+3 9/9 primary, Powers Tossup
OH-07 (Hobson) R+6 Sharen Neuhardt Safe R
OH-15 (Pryce) R+1 Mary Jo Kilroy Tossup
OH-16 (Regula) R+4 John Boccieri Tossup
PA-05 (Peterson) R+10 Mike McCracken Safe R
VA-11 (Davis) R+1 6/10 primary Byrne, Connolly Tossup
WY-AL (Cubin) R+19 Gary Trauner Likely R
So there you have it--that's 24 possible seats, 11 of which are already Tossup or Lean D. In some others our candidate isn't the greatest, but neither is theirs, so we have a chance. In some the PVI is high, but in MD-01 the GOP candidate is a wingnut. We should be able to take 12-16 of these seats. Not too many real progressives, but all of them would be an improvement over the current occupant, in some cases a very substantial improvement.
