A new SUSA poll for Pennsylvania shows Barack Obama leanding John McCain 48-40, taking most regions of the state--a sharp contrast with recent press-promoted pessimism. And despite John Edwards ruling himself out as VP, he shows up as the strongest of the potential running mates tested, including Pennsylvania's own Ed Rendell, powering Obama to as high as a landslide 17-point edge. Only well-known VPs vs. unknowns for Obama give McCain any sort of shot:
While obviously a very early poll, it seems to indicate that Pennsylvania should be safe for Obama if he just does what he is expected to do in the way of raising turning and executing GOTV. No slacking, but no panic, either.
McCain would win the North East, (13% of the state), 46-46-38, and the West Central (7%) 46-23, but that's it in terms of big wins. He would eek out a statistically insingificant 46-45 edge in the South Central (13%), offset by an nearly identical 46-44 edge for Obama in the slightly larger (21%) South West. That leaves a solid 48-34 Obama lead in the North West (5%) and a cruching 58-33 landslide in the South East (41%).
A lot of tea-leaf reading possibilities with all the matchups here. But the big take-away is "Don't Panic!"
"I want to thank the people of Iowa who were welcoming and supportive as well as my volunteers and contributors from around the country," said Thompson. "I have no regrets about running. I felt my record as Governor of Wisconsin and Secretary of Health and Human Services gave me the experience I needed to serve as President, but I respect the decision of the voters. I am leaving the campaign trail today, but I will not leave the challenges of improving health care and welfare in America."
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"No candidate is more experienced than Governor Thompson and no candidate worked harder; but sometimes the dynamics just aren't there to bring about a victory," said Steve Grubbs, Senior Advisor to Thompson's campaign. "The Governor's staff was deeply committed to him and to his candidacy. If we could have willed a victory, we would have."
Clearly, this won't have much of an impact on the Presidential race, or Thompson would still be in it. Personally, the biggest impact I see is that it tips Wisconsin from a Republican leaning swing state in terms of fundraising to a Democratic state. Obama nearly tripled the money raised by Mitt Romney (his nearest competitor after Thompson), and outraised Clinton by factor of four. This is in keeping with Obama's strong fundraising performance in the Mid-West, but I don't see Thompson's departure having a major impact on the race.
STATE BLOGS
