Nomination At A Glance, First Post-Debate Edition

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Nov 08, 2007 at 13:52

Nomination At A Glance, October 30th

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 13:30

Nomination At A Glance, Now With Thirteen Candidates

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 13:30

Nomination At A Glance: First Post-Q3 Update

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Oct 16, 2007 at 14:00

Nomination At A Glance: Natural Condition Of Campaign?

by: Chris Bowers

Sun Oct 07, 2007 at 12:28

Nomination At A Glance, September 30th Update

by: Chris Bowers

Sun Sep 30, 2007 at 18:17

New Iowa Polling Data

by: brklyngrl

Sat Sep 29, 2007 at 14:36

Obama leads just within the margin of error among likely Democratic caucus-goers, although the margin of error is pretty huge (+/-7):

Obama 28, Clinton 24, Edwards 22, Richardson 10

All other candidates are in the single digits. So it's still a close race, and overall it's probably best to think of this as a three-way tie. Still, it's hard not to see this as bad news for Edwards, if only because his strategy depends so heavily on winning in Iowa. I don't think he could survive a third place finish there. Relative to the Pollster averages, this poll has Edwards performing the same as he normally he does (22%), Clinton and Richardson are performing similarly (26% to 24% and 10% to 13%), but Obama is performing significantly better (28% versus 20%). Obviously, it's also good news for Obama.

Voters who indicated they would either definitely or probably attend the caucus (42% of those surveyed) were included as likely caucus goers - 64% of those identified as likely caucus goers attended a previous caucus.

This poll also provides some indirect support for Chris's inflated Clinton poll theory - Clinton leads among registered Democratic voters (MOE +/- 5):

RDV: Clinton 31, Obama 25, Edwards 21, Richardson 6

Obama and Richardson both do better among likely caucus goers than registered Democrats, while Clinton does worse and Edwards does basically the same. Still, Clinton has the highest fraction of supporters who say they are strongly supporting her - 55%, compared to 41% for Obama and 37% for Edwards. Another interesting result from this poll - 80% of those surveyed thought it would be a plus to have Bill Clinton "back in the White House."

Here are the results for the Republican field:

LCG: Romney 24, Thompson 16, Giuliani 13, Huckabee 12
RRV: Romney 25, Thompson 16, Giuliani 15, Huckabee 6

I have to say I'm not excited to see Huckabee break into the double digits, but I am pleased to see Romney continuing to do so well. McCain is in the high single digits - 9 among likely caucus goers and 7 among registered voters.

Last, this seems as good a time as any to mention the Pollster disclosure project. Pollster is one of my absolute favorite blogs - I can't tell you how much I rely on them for understanding trends and using polling data to predict election results. They are now making a formal attempt to encourage ALL pollsters to release more information about likely voter screens, sampling frames, and sample compositions. Having this information available would make a huge difference in my ability to tell you what might really be happening when polls produce contradictory results or when I want to write one of the longer in-depth posts about the race that I love so much.

More On Where The Campaign Is Being Waged

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Sep 22, 2007 at 13:30

1. Iowa: 1,240
   
2. New Hampshire: 571
   
3. South Carolina: 268
   
4. California: 238
   
5. D.C.: 174
   
6. Florida: 146
   
7. Nevada: 111
   
8. New York: 103
   
9. Texas: 93
   
10. Illinois: 73
    
11. Michigan: 55
    
12. Virginia: 38
    
13. Georgia: 37
    
14. Pennsylvania: 37
    
15. Massachusetts: 36

The candidates for President have made more trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, a combined 1,811, than every other state and territory combined. In fact, there have been more trips to Iowa than to every state other state, except New Hampshire and South Carolina, combined. Further, most of the trips outside Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are fundraisers, not public campaign events. For example, looking at upcoming events in California, one can see that over 60% of all scheduled appearances in the state are fundraisers, and virtually every non-fundraiser campaign appearance in the state is accompanied with a fundraiser.

The point I want to again try to hammer home here is that the campaign is being waged, in significantly decreasing order, in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina (and the latter mainly on the Republican side). This simply is not a national campaign right now, not even close. As such, national polls are not a useful reflection of the campaign. What matter is where the polls stand, once again in significantly decreasing order or importance, in Iowa, New Hampshire South Carolina and nationally. Michigan, Florida and Nevada are wildcards that will probably have an impact on the campaign that is difficult to predict.

I apologize for saying something that many people who read this will find incredibly obvious, but the point is to use the early states to take the national lead entering Super Tuesday on February 5th. How much of an impact the early states will have on the national polls varies from campaign to campaign, but we can deduce the following:

1. If Clinton wins either Iowa or New Hampshire, she will be the Democratic nominee
   
2. If Obama wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will be the Democratic nominee
   
3. If Edwards wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee
   
4. If number three does not happen, and if Clinton defeats Obama in Iowa, regardless of what else happens she will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee
   
5. If Richardson wins Iowa, and condition four is not met, then prepare for a real scramble that favors Clinton
   
6. If none of the above conditions are met, and Edwards and Obama somehow split Iowa and New Hampshire, then prepare for an entirely unpredictable scramble that clearly favors no one.

Oh, and this is amusing. According to Pew, Republicans nationally think that the "energetic" most clearly applies to Rudy Giuliani. However, here is where Giuliani ranks in terms of campaign energy, as measured by the number of trips each candidate has taken to early states:

Iowa: 12th, including 6th among Republicans.
New Hampshire: 10th, including 4th among Republicans
South Carolina: 9th (tie), including 5th among Republicans<

Yeah, that is real energetic. Rudy Giuliani is running a lazy campaign, which is to be expected, As a result, the odds are against him winning the Republican nomination, which is fine by me.

Demographic Splits and the Presidential Race

by: brklyngrl

Sat Sep 22, 2007 at 11:29

In the Democratic race, the biggest demographic splits are by level of education, by region, and among independent voters who plan to vote in the Democratic primary. The dynamics of the race differ among voters with different levels of education and in different regions of the country. Clinton and Obama are basically tied among college educated voters, among Midwestern voters, and among independents. Clinton maintains a convincing lead in every other demographic subcategory. Additionally, Edwards and Obama receive similar levels of support among white voters and among voters over 65, although both are well behind Clinton in these demographic categories.

In the Republican primary, ideology and partisan affiliation are major dividing lines that alter the dynamics of the race. Giuliani and Thompson are basically tied among Republican primary voters who describe themselves as strong Republicans, as well as among conservative leaning Republicans. McCain and Giuliani are close among independents who vote in the Republican primary. Additionally, the Thompson gender gap (widely reported) is worth keeping an eye on. In this omnibus survey, it is slightly larger than the Clinton gender gap, and in a recent ARG poll it was up to 30 points. It is bouncing around a lot, but I think Thompson will probably be in trouble in the general election if he can't even convince Republican women to vote for him.

Details for each candidate in the extended entry

Nomination At A Glance, September 19th Update

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Sep 19, 2007 at 12:35

Newt!

by: brklyngrl

Sun Sep 16, 2007 at 16:00

A few notes on the graph. The data come from a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal (pdf) poll. It included historical trend data for the following question: I'm going to read you two statements about the role of government, and I'd like to know which one comes closer to your point of view.  Statement A: Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people, OR  Statement B: Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. Because the data points are not equidistant, slopes should be interpreted with caution, if at all.

Although the NBC/WSJ data goes back only to 1995, and so doesn't include pre-Contract with America sentiment on government services, public opinion on government has nearly reversed itself since then. In 1995 62% of the public thought government was doing too many things. Today, 55% of the public thinks government should be doing more. The trend is even stronger in the youth vote (pdf). 63% of 15-25 year old believe government should do more to solve problems. Similarly, 63% of 18-29 year olds believe government should promote the principle of a strong community and policies the expand opportunity and promote prosperity for all.

A lot has changed since 1994. Maybe that explains why Newt Gingrich is so unpopular. To my knowledge, only three polls this year include favorability ratings for Newt Gingrich.  Combining them, he has a net favorability rating of minus 22, far worse even then Romney's net favorability ratings, which tend to hover around zero with forays into both the positive and negative single digits.  In Newt's defense, he has been on the political scene for a long time. Favorability ratings tend to start high and decline over time, such that newcomers to the scene have relatively higher favorability ratings. So it's possible that when Mitt Romney has been around as long as Newt Gingrich, he will also be one of the most disliked American political figures.

Nomination At A Glance, September 11th Update

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 23:06

I do just want to add that the "likely" voter screen for the LA Times and Bloomberg is a bit loose. Doing some back of the napkin math, the likely voter model used here would include more than 870,000 Democratic caucus participants -- which is a bit more than the 122,000 or so that participated in the last Democratic caucus. While there may be more excitement this time around than there was in 2004, there isn't that much more excitement. So what does that mean? A lot of the folks the Times and Bloomberg are deeming "likely" voters or caucus goers are in fact unlikely to participate come January. Most in fact. As such, while these numbers might be good gauges of the general sentiments of these states, I'm not certain how good of gauges they are of the sentiments of those who are actually going to play a large role in selecting the next Democratic nominee.

End of Summer Election Wrap Up

by: brklyngrl

Sun Sep 02, 2007 at 18:09

Given that, I think it's a good time to look back what's happened over the summer. The short version: not much.

Democrats
Nationally
May (to obtain this estimate, I averaged the 5 national polls closest to the end of May):
  Clinton 35, Obama 22, Edwards 11, Richardson 2 

Now (Pollster.com):
  Clinton 39, Obama 22, Edwards 11, Richardson 3

There has been very little change in the Democratic race over the course of the summer. Although Clinton has consolidated her lead slightly, she has gained only 4 points in three months, and the dynamics of the race remain basically unaltered at the national level.

Iowa
  May (same methodology):
  Clinton 23, Obama 19, Edwards 28, Richardson 9

Now(Pollster.com):
  Clinton 26, Obama 20, Edwards, 24, Richardson 13

After closely following the polls in Iowa, and personally feeling like a lot of potentially exciting change had taken place, I surprised to find that no candidate had lost or gained more than a few points in Iowa since May. There are, however, a handful of changes here. Most notably, Clinton has moved slightly ahead of Edwards in the Iowa polls. However, given the difficulty of polling the Iowa caucus, particularly at this early date, as well as the fact that 46% of likely Iowa caucus goers says they still might change their minds (pdf), and the at least slight over-representation of Clinton and Obama voters in groups that are historically less likely to attend the caucuses, it seems wise not to make too much of this.

I was surprised to find that Richardson's rise in Iowa appears to be somewhat overstated. Crossing into the double digits breaks a big mental barrier for me, and possibly for others, but Richardson has gained only about 3.5 points in Iowa over the course of the summer. His gain is approximately equivalent to Edwards' 4 point drop since May, as well as to Clinton's 3 point gain. Obviously his gain is greater as a fraction of his support since he is starting from a much smaller base, so perhaps that explains the excitement.

New Hampshire
May (same methodology):
  Clinton 34, Obama 20, Edwards 16, Richardson 8

Now(Pollster.com):
  Clinton 35, Obama 22, Edwards 10, Richardson 11

In fairness to Edwards, he seems to have stopped his slide in New Hampshire, and an average of the four most recent polls finds him at 14 rather than 10. Pollster intentionally uses a methodology that is slower to react to changes than other possible methods. I appreciate this feature of the methodology because I am as interested in stability as I am in change, but if the current trends hold, Edwards' change in position may look more like a blip than a slide. The last four polls also have Richardson back at about 8%, so his slight gain may also prove temporary.

2004 primary polling and the Republican field in the extended text

Total Early State Visits For All Presidential Candidates, September 1st Update

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Sep 01, 2007 at 17:00

Notes on the Republican Field

by: brklyngrl

Mon Aug 27, 2007 at 00:34

I take a look how Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, and McCain are doing in the extended text.