This year, Christmas and New Years Days were days of intense reflection. Perchance, that is true every year and for every individual. I cannot know what is true for others. I am only certain that on each of these dates I was immersed in a rigorous course of study. My gifts or the curriculum came wrapped in a routine event.
The lessons covered were Empathy and Education, although perhaps these were presented in reverse order. Possibly, the truer program was entropy and encouragement. Each edifies. I wonder; on each of the two days these topics were intertwined. In my attempt to analyze and understand what I needed to learn or did, I invite your assessments. Please indulge me as I share the story.
In 2008, I wrote Defeat pushes parties towards the victors in an effort to spell out what I saw (and still see) as the futility of 3rd party spoiler politics as a vehicle for changing the Democratic party:
The basic problem is that voting is a very blunt instrument for influencing policy. You may be sending a message, but it is not heard clearly and usually misinterpreted. The other problem is that this theory is based on entirely too much reification of parties. We discuss them sometimes as if they are coherent even monolithic actors, but this just isn't so. The Democratic party does not have a brain and nervous system that reacts to stimuli like a person might.
The thesis was that defeated political parties tend to move toward the ideology of the party that won, because that's where the votes are. Since then, the behaviour of the Republicans after successive defeats in 2006 and 2008 would seem to have shot a gaping hole in that. After all, in no way did the Republicans even entertain the idea of moving toward the Democrats and the few who suggested anything like that (say David Frum) are now outcasts on the right. So what gives?
CNN (and others no doubt) has projected Democrats will retain their Senate majority. Not really enormous news given the very low odds the various prognosticators gave the Republicans of taking the 10 seats they'd need, but in fact Democrats may do better than the 52-48 most likely outcome that Chris Bowers had in his model, and if they win the races they're currently leading (WA, NV, CO) and pull of the upset in AK, they'll end up with 54. IL looks like a loss to me, but who knows.
Back in 2006, there was a wingnut talking point brewing about Congressional power switches, which claimed that no party had ever won control over the House without also taking the Senate. As it appeared quite plausible the Democrats would take only the House then and fall just shy on the Senate, this talking point was a typical bizarre wingnut way to try and preemptively deflate the value of 2006 or something. I never looked it up to confirm it was correct, but I can't think of a time when party control of only the House changed hands. In 1980, Republicans took the Senate but not the House, and in 1986 Dems took it back, but every other change of power in Congress I can recall has seen both chambers go at once.
Assuming that's correct, the irony is that in 2010, for the first time in US history, the US Senate will fulfill its intended function as the body resistant to rapid swings in public mood during a Congressional election. That it does so for once in favour of the party slightly less amenable to the interests of the rich is at least some kind of small irony, but really speaks to the utter failure that is the Senate from the very beginning. It never worked the way the founders claimed, and its disfunction over the past 2 years is significantly responsible for what we just saw.
Good night.
[Update]: 12:30 AM -- via Free Speech TV, Grijalva & DeFazio are now up.
[Update]: 12:42 AM -- NBC calls Harry Reid the victor in NV Senate race.
Sometime after Tuesday we'll be reevaluating our Government and a new area of conflict will likely be established...
I am curious as to what the results of the Election 2010 will leave us with. It seems likely now that the Republicans will take control of the House, likely putting John Boehner (R-OH) into the Speaker's chair. As to the Senate, the majority of pollsters have the Democrats keeping control by at least 1 seat... but there are odds that Harry Reid (D - NV) won't be in one of them. This makes the Majority Leader position a "what if" situation... and it looks like Charles Schumer (D - NY) might get it.
Right now, the conventional wisdom is that Democrats will lose a significant number of Congressional seats this November and that the Republicans might even take control of the Senate or House. This disheartening meme has been promoted as vigorously as other right-wing memes by the corporate media. This meme has been bolstered by the self-destructive actions of ConservaDems and President Obama -- actions that have just barely helped Americans in this difficult time and has discouraged progressives. The meme has also been reinforced by the frustration and burnout of progressive Democrats. The wide acceptance of this meme has resulted in discouraged progressives and emboldened Republicans, especially the Tea Party crowd. It has also helped the Republicans in Congress stay united in obstructing every progressive effort Democrats try to undertake -- why be flexible when obstructionism works so well?
But what if progressives worked as hard this year to defeat Republicans and elect progressive Democrats as we did in 2008? If we worked this hard again, then it is possible that Democrats could actually gain seats in the House and Senate and that the number of progressives in Congress would increase. If such a scenario came to pass, Republican intransigence would probably break down and Tea Party energy would likely wane. Progressives would be greatly emboldened.
With solid Democratic majorities in both House and Senate and Republicans in disarray, progressive Democrats could take the lead and push for measures that would actually solve our real problems and actually help most Americans. This would then usher in the long period of progressive dominance that seemed possible a year ago and constitute another wave of progressive reform comparable to historical progressive periods - the Progressive era, the New Deal, and the 60s (as described in Mike Lux's book). In short, we might be able to win big and win big for a long time.
Expectations Drive Reality
But one of our biggest obstacles to winning this year is the expectation that this will not happen, that progressives will, instead, sit at home cynically dispirited while Tea Partiers are out in force. This is what the corporate media tells us should happen and will happen.
Instead of listening to this propaganda, believing it, and acting accordingly, we should do the opposite: ignore the propaganda, tell the truth that there is potential for winning big this November, use that truth to rally flagging progressives to action, and then do the hard work to make it happen. This won't be easy -- progressives are tired from working hard in 2006 and 2008, and many are hurting for money in this time of severe recession. All of us are disheartened by President Obama dismantling the grassroots organizing infrastructure that enabled him to win election, his appointment of corporate hacks to positions of power, his continual hippie punching, his promotion of nuclear energy, off-shore oil drilling, charter schools, and other right-wing/corporate policies, and his feeble efforts (at best) promoting progressive policy.
We are the Leaders We've Been Waiting For
But we are not dependent on President Obama for leadership, we can take leadership ourselves. For the next 6 months, we can lobby hard for progressive policies that will actually help most Americans. If we can get Democrats to push for these policies, even if the policies are not enacted, the attempt should help Democrats win election. Also, just as before, we can identify progressive candidates for the November election (like Jennifer Brunner (OH-Sen) whom I'm volunteering for), we can raise money for them and steer volunteer efforts towards their campaigns, and our blogs can promote them. Together, we can do what we did in 2006 and 2008, and therefore we should be able to bring about the same results: more and better Democrats elected to office with a strong mandate to enact progressive policies that will actually help Americans and make the world a better place.
If we can rally progressives to work for big change this year, then we might actually be able to bring it about. Expectations drive reality, so let's set positive expectations (instead of listening to the negative ones promoted by our opponents) and then do our best to make them reality.
Apparently inspired by certain Democrats voting against the health insurance reform, the Service Employees International Union - a union representing over 2 million workers - is surprisingly planning to work against Democrats this election season.
Perhaps the strongest challenge to Democrats, if not the Democratic establishment itself, will be in North Carolina. The national SEIU is working with the State Employees Association of North Carolina, its state affiliate, to form the North Carolina First Party.
In challenging times like ours, it is important to step back and look at the big picture. In the Senate we wrestle with painful choices to balance the state budget. Some factors affecting the budget are outside of our control, some we can control, and others fall somewhere in-between. While most legislative work addresses things we have direct control over, we should at least understand other factors influencing the resources available.
My campaign manager recently drafted a letter to discuss the electability of my candidacy. Recently, we had a strong showing at the gubernatorial caucuses, stunning the pundits who said we didn't have a chance.
As the Chief Author of the Minnesota Health Plan, I've helped organize over 70 signers onto the bill, including several of my opponents in this primary race. If I have the opportunity to serve as Minnesota's next Governor, I will push for real changes. That is my promise to you. We will see real change!
I look forward to hearing any questions, comments or concerns relating to the electability of my candidacy and addressing them directly.
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