In any wave election, a few long-shot candidates take seats who according to conventional wisdom really 'shouldn't.' In 2006, it was Nancy Boyda and Carol Shea Porter who snuck in; neither woman was endorsed by EMILY's List and both shocked the DC establishment by running effective grassroots campaigns and unseating popular incumbents in a wave year. This cycle, there are a number of other possibilities for this kind of candidate.
Becky Greenwald in Iowa is one, Steve O'Donnell in
PA-18 is another, Debbie Cook in California is another and Josh Zeitz in New Jersey is a fourth. Most longshots have a name ID problem, and one way to raise your name ID is by baiting your better known opponent to attack you and 'punch down'. There are other possibilities, such as running a great volunteer operation or a creative set of ads, but getting attacked is a sign that a low budget campaign is working.
Right now, Josh Zeitz is getting attacked by Chris Smith on radio and over the mail, and Smith hasn't acknowledged an opponent by name in 20 years. Steve O'Donnell got a semi-endorsement of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the paper owned by neo-confederate icon Richard Mellon Scaife, and his opponent, Tim Murphy is going hard negative with character attacks. Debbie Cook continues to close in the polls, and former Republican Congressman Pete McCloskey endorsed her.
We are 25 days from an election. At the Jefferson-Jackson dinner you talked about how important this election is, and how we need to send Becky Greenwald and Rob Hubler to Congress, and return Bruce Braley (IA-1), Dave Loebsack (IA-2),and Leonard Boswell (IA-3). In your own race, nobody has ever heard of your hapless opponent, he has no money, and he is going to lose big. So I have to ask, why are you sitting on a campaign warchest of more than $4 million? Why aren't you doing everything you can to turn Iowa blue?
Currently Democrats seem poised to pick up 12 to 18 seats in the House and five to six Senate seats. If we are on the verge of a wave, Democrats could win more than that, including a few districts where the Republican incumbent never saw it coming.
This is a thread for discussing House districts and Senate seats that may seem likely Republican holds today, but which could shock us on November 4. Join me after the jump for more.
Maybe someone out there who knows the inner workings of EMILY's List can explain to me why this group has not put money behind Becky Greenwald, the Democrat challenging loyal Republican foot-soldier Tom Latham in Iowa's fourth Congressional district.
I have been going over the list of Democratic women running for Congress whom EMILY's List is supporting, with a particular focus on the six challengers most recently added to this group in early August. I do not mean to knock any of those candidates, and I recognize that every race has its own dynamic.
However, after comparing Greenwald's race to those of other candidates, I remain puzzled that EMILY's list is not more involved in IA-04.
On Saturday a fundraising solicitation arrived in the mail from Iowa Senator Tom Harkin. It asked me to confirm delivery of the enclosed "supporter card" within ten days, and also to "help keep my 2008 re-election campaign on the road to victory" with a special contribution.
Funny, I wasn't aware that Harkin needed any extra help. Everyone in the election forecasting business has labeled this seat safe for him. The available polling shows Harkin with a comfortable lead.
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