"Theory of Change" -- what most institutions in DC don't understand

by: AdamGreen

Sun Apr 04, 2010 at 11:30

Nearly one year ago today, my life was changed by a blog post I wrote on OpenLeft entitled, "Profiles in Bad Online Organizing: Part 1 (DSCC)." In critiquing a DSCC petition to Norm Coleman, I wrote: 

Every activist email must have a plausible "theory of change." People should see some concrete theory about why taking action could lead to a desired result.

But some people choose to inflame people's passions just to get their email addresses (and, more likely than not, to fundraise from them -- as opposed to later engaging them in quality activism). This sullys the online activism process for the rest of us.

That's why getting emails like this one from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recently was both insulting and maddening:

[Email text here]

...Nowhere in the entire email is there a theory for why a DSCC petition to Norm Coleman will make any impact.

And, if you think about it, why on earth would Norm Coleman listen to the DSCC? Can you think of a less credible messenger than the DC committee whose sole role is to defeat Senate Republicans like Coleman?

I'm not saying the DSCC has no role to play in getting Coleman to step down. I'm just saying they should play an honest and effective role.

To make a long story short, based on positive feedback from this post, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee I co-founded with Stephanie Taylor and Aaron Swartz ended up doing the "Dollar a Day to Make Norm Go Away" campaign with Democracy for America -- fully backed by a theory of change. In addition to putting real pressure on Norm Coleman, it brought over $100,000 and thousands of members into our nascent organization. (Many thanks to the OpenLeft readers who participated.)

Everything we did to advance the public option in 2009 and everything we will do to elect bold progressive candidates in 2010 flows from there.

I've been meaning to return to "theory of change" writing -- and analysis of organizations that just don't get it -- for a while. But I just read a great post by Aaron Swartz on his blog Raw Thoughts that really is a must-read. 

If you want to be an effective activist -- or if you want to understand why many thinkers and institutions in DC are ineffective -- I highly recommend you read Aaron's "Theory of Change" post in full: