Americans appear ready to sweep a lot of Democrats into office on November 4. Not only does Barack Obama maintain a solid lead in the popular vote and electoral vote estimates, several Senate races that appeared safe Republican holds a few months ago are now considered tossups.
Polling is harder to come by in House races, but here too there is scattered evidence of a coming Democratic tsunami. Having already lost three special Congressional elections in red districts this year, House Republicans are now scrambling to defend many entrenched incumbents.
In this diary, I hope to convince you of three things:
1. Some Republicans who never saw it coming are going to be out of a job in two weeks.
On a related note,
2. Even the smartest experts cannot always predict which seats offer the best pickup opportunities.
For that reason,
3. Activists should put resources behind many under-funded challengers now, instead of going all in for a handful of Democratic candidates.
There was a lot of excitement in the IAM (Int'l Assoc. of Machinists) union hall this morning in Huntington Beach, where DFA's Jim Dean and a host of local officials testified to the worthiness and strength of Debbie Cook, the Democratic candidate in CA-46, seeking to retire certified nutjob Dana Rohrabacher in Congress. But the best reaction was for the candidate herself, who gave a straight-shooting, no B.S. speech that made clear the stakes in this election.
"Do-Nothing Dana has been in Congress for 20 years and hasn't done a thing," Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, said to a pancake breakfast of around 120 volunteers who were ready to precinct walk for her. Referring to a claim from the campaign's latest ad, that Rohrabacher has sponsored a bill to protect the country from an asteroid, she said, "he needs to worry less about asteroids and more about planet Earth."
Congress is where the real battles are being fought and where the Dems can make real gains as the GOP puts all its efforts into squeezing Old Man McCain into the White House. This is our best opportunity in years to put more progressives and especially more women into the House. Why women? They are more apt to be progressive and less scandal prone, for starters. Here are some notable women running to replace male incumbents:
We all want better Democrats but we don't want to squander our resources on hopeless causes. We want people who have a chance to win, whose election will make a difference, and where WE can make a real difference. Here are three such races:
Debbie Cook in CA-46 Debbie Cook, the Mayor of Huntington Beach, a lawyer and environmental and energy activist, opposes Dana Rohrabacher, a former Reagan speechwriter, 20-year House veteran, friend of the Taliban both in Afghanistan and in the GOP. She outraised him in Q2. Cook rates it "Likely R" but she is his stiffest challenge ever.
Betsy Markey in CO-04 Betsy Markey, an aide to Senator Ken Salazar, Democratic activist, businesswoman, former government computer security expert and congressional staffer, is running against Marilyn Musgrave, one of the chief gay-bashers and least liked members of Congress. She outraised Musgrave in Q2. Cook rates the race "toss-up".
Dennis Shulman in NJ-05 Dennis Shulman, blind rabbi and psychologist, opposes Scott Garrett, another of the most conservative members of the House. He supports the Responsible Plan (as does Cook), opposes FISA (as do the other two), and is endorsed by J-Street. Ending the war, health care and care of disabled veterans are among his issues.
On the flip: My criteria and more details on the two races.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
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