Last night I proposed a metric for determining whether or not we are headed to a post-voting fight over credentials, rules, and even a floor fight. In short, the metric aims to measure whether or not Obama can reach 2,208 delegates without a fight over credentials or rules. It is based on the Clinton campaign's argument that Michigan and Florida should be seated based on the results of their January primaries, and on Barack Obama winning all but one of the Michigan uncommitted delegates. I want to make it clear that this metric does not approve of the Clinton campaign's argument, but is instead intended to determine whether there will be a fight at the credentials committee. After all, if Obama wins even according to the Clinton campaign's delegate argument, then the nomination is over. However, if the nomination is undecided according to this argument, then there will obviously be a fight over credentials, rules and such.
With an 84-74 pro-Clinton delegate split appearing fixed, the CF-line stands at Obama 1,848--1,817 non-Obama. The formula achieved to reach this number is as follows:
- Obama (1,848): 1,490 pledged, 237 supers, 67 Florida, 54 Michigan
- Non-Obama (1,817): 1,337 Clinton pledged, 270 Clinton supers, 105 Clinton Florida, 73 Clinton Michigan, 31 Edwards pledged, 1 uncommitted
There are other minutia that can be added to this, such as the Pelosi Club delegates that will add six to the Obama column and subtract one from the non-Obama column. Also, the projected add-on delegates will put another 32 in the Obama column, and another 29 in the non-Obama column. Also, Obama has at least four superdelegates that are currently vacant, including the Maryland 4th member of Congress, the vacant Illinois DNC spot, one of the vacant at-large DNC spots, and the Hawaii party chair spot.
However, even with those details added in, Obama is still only 45 delegates above the CF line, 1,890 to 1,845. With 680 other delegates still to be accounted for, it is not impossible for Clinton to close the gap and force a credentials / rules fight. She would need 363, or 53.3%, of the remaining 680 delegates to pull it off. As long as Edwards does not endorse Obama, and as long as superdelegates do not move to Obama in disproportionate amounts, a victory in Indiana, coupled with a single-digit loss in North Carolina, would keep her in the game.
Oh, and I should have stuck with my original, mid-March prediction for Pennsylvania: a Clinton victory of 10 points, and a delegate margin of 84-74. I would have looked like a genius.
|
STATE BLOGS
