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Florida Governor Charlie Crist will run for Senate. This is very disappointing, as it moves Florida from one of the best potential pickups for Democrats to a Republican lock. Florida polling in the Republican primary shows Crist up 57%-11%, and in the general election by 49%-28% over likely Democratic nominee, Representative Kendrick Meek.
One ray of hope in the Florida Senate campaign is that the poll showing Charlie Crist ahead by 21% also showed him with 88% name recognition, compared to only 25% for Meek. It is possible that as Meek's numbers rise as he closes the name ID gap. Unfortunately, it is also possible that Crist will have much more money than Meek, and be able to define him in any potential advertising war.
Here is the latest Senate chart. With Florida removed from the equation, Democrats are now projected to gain only one seat:
2010 Senate Outlook: Net Democrat Gain of one seat, for a total of 61
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 3 (Missouri, plus two of Kentucky, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio)
| State |
Type |
Democrat |
Republican |
High Margin |
Low Margin |
#Polls |
| MO |
Open |
Carnahan |
Primary |
D 10.5 |
D 2.0 |
2 |
| OH |
Open |
Primary |
Portman* |
D 3.0 |
R 1.5 |
2 |
| NH |
Open |
Hodes* |
Hypothetical |
D 3.0 |
D 1.0 |
1 / 3 |
| KY |
Open |
Primary |
Grayson |
D 1.5 |
R 2.5 |
2 |
| NC |
Incumbent |
Hypothetical |
Burr |
D 1.7 |
R 8.0 |
3 / 1 |
| LA |
Incumbent |
Hypothetical |
Vitter |
R 9.0 |
R 9.0 |
1 |
| AK |
Incumbent |
Hypothetical |
Murkowski |
R 8.0 |
R 24.0 |
1 |
Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 2 (Delaware, plus either Connecticut or New York)
| State |
Type |
Democrat |
Republican |
High Margin |
Low Margin |
#Polls |
| DE |
Special |
Hypothetical |
Hypothetical |
R 14.5 |
R 14.5 |
2 |
| CT |
Incumbent |
Dodd |
Primary |
D 8.5 |
R 4.5 |
2 |
| NY |
Special |
Gillibrand* |
Hypothetical |
D 15.3 |
R 4.0 |
4 / 2 |
| CO |
Special |
Bennet |
Buck |
D 6.0 |
D 6.0 |
1 |
| NV |
Incumbent |
Reid* |
Hypothetical |
D 6.0 |
D 17.0 |
1 |
| IL |
Special |
Hyopthetical |
Hypothetical |
D 16.0 |
D 1.0 |
1 / 2 |
| AR |
Incumbent |
Lincoln |
Hendren |
D 11.0** |
D 8.0** |
1 |
| PA |
Incumbent |
Specter* |
Toomey |
D 16.3 |
D 16.3 |
3 |
(Note: Senate elections where there is no polling showing the incumbent party ahead by less than 10.0% are not examined in detail. Pennsylvania included due to expected popular demand.
*= Faces primary, but currently the heavy favorite against other announced candidates
** = There is no polling in Arkansas is not for Lincoln vs. Hendren, so previous polling on Lincoln versus other candidates is listed in its place.)
The only Republican incumbent who appears to be threatened is Richard Burr in North Carolina (although it is possible that David Vitter might find himself vulnerable, too). Depending on recruiting, Republicans might end up with more legitimate pickup opportunities than Democrats in 2010. Should Republicans score a "moderate" wave of former Governor George Pataki in New York, Representative (and former Governor) Mike Castle in Delaware, Representative Mark Kirk in Illinois (although that looks increasingly unlikely), and if former Representative Rob Simmons in Connecticut (he faces a primary and hasn't raised any money), then they will be projected to win seats in 2010.
Perhaps we are running up against the limits of how many Senate seats one party can have these days. Notes on how to read the chart in the extended entry.
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