I'm curious about the release of McCain's medical records. He's a 71 year old guy with three bouts of cancer, and yet the AP is saying he has a clean bill of health. Maybe that's true. But isn't the story really as follows?
The campaign is allowing a small pool of reporters (including NBC) access to McCain's medical records from 10:00 am to 1:00 pm ET in a conference room at the Copper Wind Resort in Phoenix. The reporters are allowed to take notes but not remove or photocopy the records.
Halliburton contacted Congressional candidate Jared Polis in CO-02. Polis has been sharply critical of the company, and the company's letter calls Halliburton 'an American success story'.
In yet another sign of his pivoting toward the general election, Senator John McCain said at a roundtable with business leaders here today that comprehensive immigration reform should be a top priority for the next president.
In other news, SEIU is blasting McCain's recent health care proposal and McCain's health checks out, if you believe a cloistered set of reporters who got to review 1000 pages of medical records for a few hours.
Leslie Byrne and Gerald Connolly are neck and neck in VA-11, with the latest polling showing Connolly leading Byrne 37-34.
Democrats Work and Wes Clark are teaming up with the program 'Serve with a General'. They will go to one Congressional district and jointly do a community service event. You can help pick the district here.
Comcast and Cox filtering the internet and blocking file sharing traffic might be a felony.
Michigan Liberal criticizes the DNC and the Michigan Democratic Party for violating their charter and refusing to hear complaints about seating the Michigan delegation. Michigan Liberal is the blog not given credentials to the convention, because of this legacy of holding the party accountable.
It was towards the end of the campaign in 2006 and we were running well back in the polls. Bill Clinton and Karl Rove, the leaders of the Connecticut AFL-CIO and U.S. Chamber of Commerce - they had all lined up behind incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman. Then we received a call that Senator Ted Kennedy wanted us to join him at a rally at a senior center in Bridgeport.
Coal Is Dirty from DeSmogBlog launches to take on the myth of 'clean coal'.
Lots of rumors about Hillary as VP, nothing credible. One of the annoying parts of dealing with the VP game is that it's basically a choice by one man, Barack Obama, and yet he has hundreds of people around his campaign who play themselves off as 'senior' and pass rumors to each other and the press. And this isn't just about feeling important, it's about running a campaign for their preferred VP pick. I've heard a lot of rumors about Chuck Hagel, for instance, but there are a good number of Hagel boosters in the Democratic foreign policy establishment for a lot of (good and bad) reasons.
Matt Stoller's already commented on a possible Bob Kerrey return to the U.S. Senate, and why he wasn't enamored of the idea; others have dismissed those concerns by essentially saying that we don't know enough about local politics in Nebraska to comment one way or the other.
That may well be the case, but let's be blunt--the following reporting by Bob Novak doesn't do anything to allay my concerns.
In Virginia, Mark Warner has announced that he is running… for something:
This year's ICS was a terrific success and and what could beat that surprise visit from Mark Warner and his announcement that this time next week, he was "going to be a candidate for public office!"
Since I doubt he will run for US House, jump in the presidential campaign, or start a five-year campaign to primary Jim Webb in 2012, the options for Warner appear to be running for US Senate in 2008, or running for Virginia Governor in 2009. My guess is that this early announcement means he is running for Senate, as the Virginia Gubernatorial election is more than two years away. That is fine with me, since it would basically assure a Democratic pickup in Virginia.
A political logjam in Nebraska that has forced a slew of potential U.S. Senate candidates to tread water for months will begin breaking Monday, when Chuck Hagel formally announces he will not seek re-election.
Democrat Bob Kerrey, Republican Mike Johanns and others likely will begin unveiling their plans for the 2008 race in the coming weeks or, possibly, days.
No matter who runs on the Republican side, Bob Kerrey could potentially win this seat. I hope he runs, because I would like to see as much pressure on Republicans in as many seats as possible around the country. Kerrey would cause further headaches for already severely pressured Republicans.
In Idaho, according to Survey USA, Larry LaRocco can make a competitive race out of it, depending on who the Republican nominee is. While well-known Republicans Mike Simpson and Dirk Kempthorne would apparently start with huge leads on LaRocco, there is no guarantee at all that either would run or, if they did run, that they would win the Republican nomination. Against four other Republicans, LaRocco is either close or statistically tied. So, it appears that Democrats can even be competitive in Idaho now, but it will depend largely on who the Republican nominee is.
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Getting the right matchup in all three of these seats will help us toward our broader goal of more and better Democrats. This is the case even if any of the Democrats in question are not viewed as among the "better Democrat" category by some. I would argue, for example, that no matter what some int he blogosphere might think of him, Bob Casey Jr.'s extremely strong showing during the 2006 campaign freed up a lot of Democratic resources for closer wins in Rhode Island, Virginia, Montana and Missouri. In the same vein, added pressure in the form of nearly guaranteed pickups (Warner in Virginia), surprisingly competitive elections (LaRocco in Idaho) or conservative Democratic candidates for an open seat in a conservative state like Nebraska (Kerrey), will all help out candidates like Merkley or Novick in Oregon (both progressives), Franken or Ciresi in Minnesota (same story), Allen in Maine, or the eventual Democratic nominee in New Hampshire (I think Jay Buckey would be a good progressive there). Further, key primary challenges in places in Connecticut can not only help Democrats become better, but can also breed more Democrats nationwide by finally convincing them to run against the war. More Democrats can lead to better Democrats, and better Democrats can lead to more Democrats. I point this out as one way of explaining why I have no problem engaging in numerous primary challenges on behalf of progressives, while simultaneously backing conservative Democrats in general elections against Republicans. More and better Democrats is not an either / or process for progressives, and I am happy to work on the "better" just as I am happy to work on the "more."
Update: Bob Kerry certainly does not look very conservative when his voting record is examined. It seems I misspoke by calling him a conservative.
According to widely circulating reports based on a article in the Omaha World Herald, Chuck Hagel (NE) will announce his retirement at a press conference at 10am on Monday, and will not run for the Presidency.
Senator Chuck Hagel, the Nebraska Republican and outspoken critic of the Iraq war who had been mulling a run for president, will retire at the end of his term in early 2009 and drop his bid for the White House, aides said today.
Mr. Hagel said he would make a formal announcement in Omaha on Monday morning, his aides said.
In announcing his retirement, Mr. Hagel is fulfilling a promise that he made to voters when he first ran for the Senate in 1996 that we would retire after serving two terms. But his decision is the latest political setback for the Republican Party in its effort to prevent Democrats from extending their majority in Congress next year.
Now we're just waiting to hear if Bob Kerrey will jump in.
Although Chuck Hagel is obviously a really quirky guy and could change his mind at the drop of a hat, everyone I talked to in the know about Nebraska politics is pretty convinced that Hagel is going to announce his retirement, and that Bob Kerrey is going to get in the race to replace him. I know that many in the blogosphere are not fans of Kerrey's, some even comparing him to Lieberman, and I have never been close to him. But I think his running again is actually a good thing.
The most obvious reason is that he will likely give Democrats another seat in the Senate. Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and Scott Kleeb are the two other potential Senate candidates, and while both have a lot going for them, I think their paths to winning a statewide Senate race are much more uphill compared to Kerrey's, who is still very popular and who would likely beat any of the Republican candidates.
I also don't think Kerrey is as bad as a lot of the blogosphere assumes. He is for sure an independent cuss, one who has driven me crazy many times over the years, and he would be very unpredictable on issues the progressive community cares about. But overall he was the most progressive Senator that Nebraska has had since the legendary George Norris (a Republican in the 1930s who championed rural electrification and labor law reform). And unlike most politicians, he will be open and passionate about what he believes. He will drive us all crazy from time to time, but on balance he's a whole lot better than either Lieberman or any of the Republicans running.
I also had a good conversation with Scott Kleeb, his wife and new Nebraskan Jane Fleming Kleeb, and most importantly their one month-old baby Maya (they got me to lunch by promising I could hold her). Scott got 45% last year in one of the five most Republican districts in the country, and is trying to decide whether to run again. It's a tough call given the nature of the district, and it would be really difficult to defend the seat even if he did win in 2008. I think he's leaning toward going for it in spite of the odds, and I hope he does- he's a good guy. The nature of the district wouldn't allow him to vote with progressives on every issue, but I think he would always be open to listening to us, and would do what he could, given the district, to be a solid team player for Democratic leadership on tough votes.
The table is set. Labor Day is upon us, and a number of political deadlines are approaching. Decisions ready to be made. Political heavyweights ready to enter the arena, and some apparently ready to exit.
I've devoted quite a bit of virtual ink to this race, repeating myself dozens of times, going over every single sign, detail, rumor, or press account to get a better picture of what I believe is the most important race in Nebraska - for Nebraska - in 2008.
The evolution of this race - from the initial rumors of Hagel's retirement, to Mike Fahey's potential entry into the race, Hagel's March "announcement," and Bruning's primary challenge, followed by Kerrey's interest in a potential candidacy, has been one of the most fascinating stories of this young election cycle.
In Don Walton's article in the Lincoln Journal Star today, this quote stands out:
If it's ultimately Kerrey versus Johanns after 2008 primary voters have spoken and all the smoke has cleared, Nebraska may play host to next year's premier Senate race.
So say Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray in The Washington Post.
"A Kerrey-Johanns matchup would be the early front-runner for the marquee race of the 2008 cycle," they wrote last week.
We wait in anticipation for Kerrey's decision. More after the jump...
I'm putting together a spreadsheet of electoral votes, adjusting for the massive swing in self-identified party membership over the last few years. In 2004, 42% of voters thought of themselves as Democrats, and 42% as voters. Today, 50% of voters self-identify as Democrats, and only 35% as Republicans. That is, well, stunning.
To put that into perspective, if you translate the party self-identification shift straight across the country and adjust percentages from 2004, we're talking about going into an election where the Republicans can count as safe 'red' states where they will have 55% majorities as Alabama, Idaho, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, and Wyoming. That's about 30 electoral votes. Democrats will actually have a majority of the electoral college as a base, just from states like Ohio and Nevada becoming safe 'blue' states. We'll start in a position to just run up the score.
That sounds crazy, I know, but it's not unreasonable to believe that over the past three years, 10-15% of the voting population has changed their mind and felt a sense of betrayal towards the Republican Party combined with a new sense of liberalism. In fact, it would be strange if that hadn't happened. Now, self-identified registration changes aren't evenly distributed, but it is useful as a thought experiment to think about what kind of impact they will have on the electoral map. To understand the upcoming election, we have to understand this new bloc of 'betrayed' voters and throw away the conventional wisdom of 2000-2006 red and blue modeling of politics. We're in landslide territory.
Newt Gingrich and the rest of the GOP leadership is praying that the Sarkozy model will apply here. Sarkozy is the conservative French President who was able to succeed an unpopular conservative French President by running as a change candidate. I don't think that's likely, because of the organization of the Republican Party and its authoritarian base. Matthew Yglesias points to this Ron Brownstein Op-Ed on how Republican Senators and House member are facing primary challenges.
Hagel, the most outspoken Republican critic of the war, has already drawn a serious primary opponent (Nebraska Atty. Gen. Jon Bruning) for next year, and Graham and Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens could face challenges in the primaries too -- which would make 2008 the first time since 1978 that more than one Republican senator has faced such a challenge. More than half a dozen House Republicans, all of them in Republican-leaning districts, also have attracted primary challengers.
I've hit this theme before, and I think it's one of the most underreported storylines out there. Republicans are responsive to a prowar right-wing elite and an authoritarian base, which is making them much less appealing to 70% of the country. They are living in la la land, where the economy is great and we're winning the war in Iraq. And their moderates are basically dead, or nearly so.
It's time to begin planning for a Democratic landslide election, and working to think through how to position progressive Democrats. I'm working on a piece on 'extractive industry state Democrats', progressives who come from mining and energy intensive states like Alaska, Wyoming, and Texas. But I'm not sure if that's the right place to look.
How to appeal to these 'betrayed voters' is one of the key questions we have to work through. Who are they? What do they want? And how can we make them permanently part of our coalition?
The right-wing is prowar, which is why people like Chuck Hagel keep getting primary challengers. That, or Hagel's going to retire. His first challenger is Jon Brunning, a hyper-ambitious and unbelievably hardworking former liberal Democrat running to the right of Hagel. This new one is a guy named Pat Flynn, and he's a weird one.
A Schuyler investment adviser announced Tuesday that he is a candidate for U.S. Senate.
Pat Flynn, 48, said he is fed up with the lack of a conservative posture by the Senate and wants to take Nebraska values to the nation. The Republican said those values include religious faith and an anti-abortion stance.
The volunteer youth minister said he was arrested for both drunken driving and marijuana possession in his 20s but has reformed his life and believes that he sets a good example by being upfront and making amends for past mistakes.
Ok then.
And in a semi-related Nebraska politicians are freaks thread, former Senator Bob Kerrey, who may run on the Democratic ticket, presided over actor Steve Martin's wedding. Martin invited his friends over for a party without telling them it was a wedding, and then delivered his vows sporting an 'Inspector Clouseau mustache'. Boomers are crazy.
If you want to know why it's such a big deal that Chris Shays is (sort of) cracking on Iraq, look no further than Nebraska, where we can see the fate of antiwar Republicans. DaveSund at Swing State Project has an important diary on Senator Chuck Hagel and his rightwing challenger, Jon Bruning. Basically, antiwar Republican Chuck Hagel, who provided the margin for the bill Bush vetoed earlier this year, raised about half as much money as the opportunistic Bruning.
STATE BLOGS
If you want to know why it's such a big deal that