Open Left - Colorado

El Paso County, Colo. Exemplifies Voter Reg. Turnaround for Low Income Citizens

project vote — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Cross-posted to Project Vote's Voting Matters Blog

More than fifteen years after the passage of the National Voter Registration Act, few states are complying with the law's requirement that voter registration services are provided to those who apply for public assistance. Though highly successful in the first two years the NVRA was implemented, in 1995-1996, registrations through public assistance agencies have steadily declined, and had fallen by 79 percent nationwide in 2007-2008. Project Vote and other voting rights organizations have been working to bring several states into compliance with this key provision of the NVRA, and-as a last resort-have been forced to bring lawsuits in several states to ensure that low-income public assistance clients have access to voter registration services as required by law.
But one Colorado county is proving what can be accomplished through voluntary compliance with the NVRA, and demonstrating that-no matter how "busy" or "underfunded" a program may be-expanding access to the democratic process for low-income residents is as simple as it is priceless.

"I know it's an additional workload issue," says Rick Bengsston, Acting Director of El Paso County Department of Human Services ."But if it becomes part of the daily process, it really isn't that difficult to get this done."

Earlier this summer, Project Vote was working with Colorado officials to bring the state into compliance, and determined that the densely populated El Paso County was seriously out of step with the NVRA. After being notified of their noncompliance in all four public assistance sites-which provide TANF, Food Stamps, Medicaid, and other benefits-Bengtsson and the Colorado Benefits Management System collaborated to integrate voter registration with regular services.

As a result, the number of clients offered voter registration services at El Paso County agencies has increased sevenfold since April. How did they make such a quick turnaround?

According to Bengsston, it was simply by making voter registration a part of the every day workload, and by holding offices accountable. "The first thing we did was make sure we had sufficient [voter registration] forms in stock," Bengtsson said. Then, they made sure every site attached voter registration applications to every public assistance form, and implemented a staff training on the NVRA and how to apply it to public assistance services.

Finally, to keep all sites accountable for providing voter registration services, Bengtsson appointed the Dept. of Human Services' quality assurance specialist to monitor voter registration at all public assistance sites in addition to the public assistance data she was already collecting.

"She now is collecting, reviewing, and tabulating the [voter registration] numbers, so she can report back to each of our managers to ensure that the appropriate steps are being taken, and that forms are being properly filled out and forwarded to the clerk and recorder," he said.

Establishing a system to monitor and evaluate agency compliance is one of the most important steps that Project Vote and its partners recommend to ensure best practices, and Bengtsson agrees. "I think the big point is having one person who is not only accountable for collecting the forms, but knowing that we're in compliance. It helps to have a compliance specialist, someone who is really analyzing and ensuring that we're following the law."

Bengtsson says another important component in keeping this opportunity available for low-income citizens is "helping staff understand the importance" of providing voter registration at public assistance agencies. "It's the law - and it's an opportunity for our citizens to participate in our political process."

Having only learned of the NVRA's mandates earlier this summer, El Paso County Commissioner Sallie Clark's main mission in providing voter registration at public assistance agencies is to make sure the county is following federal law. While expressing concerns that increasingly high numbers of public assistance clients and declining resources could impede their ability to facilitate voter registration properly, Clark recognizes the importance of voter registration access, particularly for the people that they serve.

"A majority of our clients don't have adequate transportation, and aren't in jobs that allow flexibility to go to the clerk and recorder's office during the day, so there is sometimes more concern about their basic needs than to register to vote," she said. "But I do think that offering the service in the agency - and they do visit us on a fairly regular basis - ensures that they are given the information they need to make the decision about whether they should register to vote or not."

Both Clark and Bengtsson agree that working with other state leaders to efficiently make voter registration part of the state's services is key to successfully helping citizens in need not only get public assistance, but also get a chance to participate in the democratic process.

"I think that our workers really understand the reasons behind the law, and the reasoning is to ensure that citizens who are sometimes disenfranchised have easy access to their fundamental privileges of voting." Clark said.

Online Voter Registration Reaches Some Citizens, but Won't Close the Electoral Gap

project vote — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Cross-posted at Project Vote's Voting Matters Blog.

Access to voter registration continues to be an issue in the U.S. where only 71 percent of the voting eligible population is registered to vote. With young, low income, and minority citizens lagging behind in voter registration and participation, this fraction of registered voters only represents a skewed picture of the American people.
In an effort to make voter registration more accessible, several states have joined Arizona and Washington this year by passing laws to provide certain citizens the convenience of registering to vote with the click of a mouse. Colorado, Indiana, Louisiana, Oregon, and Utah are among the states that recently enacted such laws while Kansas has just made voter registration accessible online to eligible citizens in the state, according to the Associated Press. However, a new memo by Project Vote consultants Jody Herman and Doug Hess finds that, while online voter registration is a "welcome new convenience," its impact will most likely be limited in reducing the tremendous demographic disparities that currently exist in the electorate.

Using Nielsan and Census data, the report examines the limitations - and benefits - of online voter registration by describing the U.S. households that do not have internet access and comparing the findings to voter registration rates in those households based on race/ethnicity, age, educational attainment, and income.

"In most cases, the demographic groups that are already less likely to be registered are also the least likely to have internet access in the home," Herman wrote. Among these groups are low income citizens, those without high school degrees, and Latinos, rendering online voter registration less effective for the very people who need access to the electoral process most. According to the memo:

• Low income households are not only less likely to have internet access (41%), they are also least likely to be registered to vote, compared to other income brackets (65%).
• Educational attainment appears to have an affect on access to both voter registration and internet. Just 36% percent of those without high school diploma have internet access - 41 percentage points lower than the national average. Similarly, this group registers to vote at a rate that is 21 percentage points lower than the national average (50%).
• Black and Latino households are less likely to have access to the internet, with only 63% of households in each group. However, Latinos are disproportionately underrepresented in the electorate, registering at 12 percentage points lower than the national average.

"An additional problem is that online voter registration systems that require an online registrant to have an existing signature in a state database-such as in a driver's license database and/or state voter registration database-will further limit the accessibility of an online voter registration system to disadvantaged groups," according to the report. (A 2007 study on voter ID accessibility in Indiana exemplifies this issue, as voters with only high school education, as well as low-income and minority citizens, were found to be less likely to posses identification required, in this case, to vote.)

While online registration seems to disproportionately reach mostly those who are already overrepresented in the electorate, it may open doors for one group that is notoriously plagued with voter access and participation issues: Youth. Citizens ages 18 to 34 register to vote at a rate of 10 percentage points behind the electorate as a whole. However, young people are most likely to have internet access, with 88 percent of younger households connected to the Web. This may prove beneficial in incorporating America's future decision makers in the electorate.

Voting Rights Groups Sue States for Failing to Register Low-Income Residents

project vote — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Cross-posted at Project Vote's Voting Matters Blog

By Erin Ferns

Enfranchising America's least represented citizens is as simple as following the law: that's the message Project Vote and a coalition of voting rights groups sent today as they filed lawsuits against Indiana and New Mexico for failing to comply with the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA).
Under a key provision of the NVRA, most states are required to provide voter registration opportunities to the millions of low-income Americans who apply for or use public assistance programs such as Food Stamps, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, or Medicaid. Project Vote estimates that full implementation of this law could improve lagging voter registration rates among low-income citizens by two to three million new voters per year nationwide.

Unfortunately, compliance with the NVRA since its inception in 1993 has been spotty at best, non-existent at worst, leaving third-party groups with the hefty responsibility of picking up the slack by conducting expensive registration drives in disenfranchised communities. The groups believe it is time for government to be doing its job of registering its citizens, and to start by properly implementing and enforcing the NVRA.

The latest offenders under this federal law include the states of New Mexico and Indiana, both of which are being sued for denying hundreds of thousands of residents the opportunity to register to vote. Representing the plaintiffs are Project Vote, Demos, the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, the NAACP, the ACLU of Indiana, and law firms, Barnhill & Galland and Schwartz, Lichten, & Bright, Freedman Boyd Hollander Goldberg & Ives, and DLA Piper U.S.

Last week, the Election Assistance Commission confirmed that poor implementation of public agency registration is a "widespread problem," according to today's press releases. Between 1995 and 1996 - the first two years the law was in effect - 2.6 million voter registration applications were collected from people who visited offices for Food Stamps, TANF, and Medicaid. That number dramatically declined in 2007-2008, when fewer than one million applications were collected nationwide, according to the EAC report.

The decline was even more severe in New Mexico, where public assistance agencies-despite steady participation rates-showed a 90 percent decrease in voter registration applications from since 1995.

"In 2007 the average number of adult participants in the Food Stamp program alone was over 103,000, but [the Human Services Department] averaged only 134 registration applications per month," according to the press release. "Project Vote investigations of six HSD offices in January 2009 revealed that none of the offices provided voter registration application forms to their clients as part of the benefits application." Additionally, the complaint alleges that New Mexico has also been neglecting the better known "motor voter" provisions of the NVRA, which require motor vehicle offices to offer voter registration services. Officials from the HSD are among the defendants named in the suit, which also includes New Mexico's Secretary of State, Mary Herrera, officials from the New Mexico Motor Vehicle Division, and the New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department.

"The NVRA was enacted to ensure that states affirmatively provide all citizens an equal opportunity to register to vote," says Nicole Kovite, director of the Public Agency Voter Registration Project at Project Vote. "By ignoring this vital law, New Mexico is denying this right to thousands of its residents every year."

In Indiana - which has one of the country's worst records for voter registration, particularly among low-income people-evidence of violations of the NVRA were also cited in the coalition's lawsuit against officials from Indiana's Family and Social Services Administration, the co-directors of the Indiana Election Division, and the members of the Indiana Election Commission. Although the state currently has more 300,000 adult participants every month in the Indiana Food Stamp program alone, voter registration applications have declined from 80,000 applications collected in the 1995-1996 election cycle to a dismal 2,519 in 2007-2008.

"Voter registration should primarily be the responsibility of the government," said Jeff Ordower, ACORN's Midwest regional director. "Indiana's noncompliance has not only resulted in thousands of low-income and minority Indiana citizens being denied the opportunity to register to vote, it has also forced ACORN, the NAACP, and other groups to expend considerable effort and resources to take up the slack."

As they did in Indiana and New Mexico, the coalition has sent pre-litigation letters "notifying California, Colorado, and New Jersey that lawsuits may be necessary if they do not bring their programs into compliance," the group said. However, the group emphasizes that states do not need to wait to be sued before finally complying with federal law.

"Recently several states that had been disregarding the NVRA have been forced to comply," according to the coalition. "Last week the State of Missouri settled a similar lawsuit brought by the voting rights groups; since a court order in that suit forced Missouri public assistance agencies into compliance in July, voter registration applications skyrocketed from fewer than 8,000 a year to more than 100,000 in just eight months. In 2008, Department of Justice investigations forced both Arizona and Illinois to take steps to improve compliance."

Former NLRB Examiner: We Need Employee Free Choice

Seth D Michaels — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 17:05:08 GMT

Ask Shannon Hilt, who's seen our broken system for forming unions firsthand, and she'll tell you that there's no question: Workers need the Employee Free Choice Act.

Hilt spent three years as a field examiner for the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), overseeing the elections process and investigating unfair practices. She says the system we have now, one in which companies, not workers, have all the power, isn't free, it isn't fair and doesn't protect workers.

Writing in the Boulder, Colo., Daily Camera, Hilt explains how her years of experience as an NLRB field examiner have convinced her that we need fundamental labor law reform that gives workers, not their bosses, the ability to decide how they form a union and bargain.
Here's how Hilt describes the way union elections happen now:

Through the process of holding union elections, I observed that employees were often intimidated and harassed before the election took place. The company has unfettered access to employees before the union election takes place and oftentimes they use that access to hold mandatory meetings where they discourage their employees from voting for a union in illegal ways.
When it came down to the day of the vote, the fact that the elections are held on company property and that employees are released from their work stations to go vote and watched at distance by their superiors makes the election process less neutral than it could be. Throughout the process, I could tell that some workers felt intimidated.

The difficulties and abuses workers often face when trying to form unions have been documented in numerous studies, and Hilt knows that these aren't just statistics. The harassment, intimidation and firing companies can engage in with impunity stop workers from exercising their basic freedoms, she says:

Many workers, knowing that the law will not protect them and that the employer holds all the cards in the workplace, decide not to risk asserting their collective voice. This is tragic for workers who want to work together to raise their wages, better their working conditions and improve their company. It is also a tragedy for American democracy.

In her valuable op-ed, Hilt asks Colorado's Sens. Mark Udall and Michael Bennet to join the broad national coalition in support of Employee Free Choice. Read the entire op-ed here.

(Cross-posted from the AFL-CIO Now Blog.)

Will Colorado Senator Mike Bennet stand with workers?

AdamGreen — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 14:44:19 GMT

David Sirota mentioned some Democrats' (ahem, Harry Reid) plentiful lack of backbone when it comes to empowering workers to organize.

Last Friday night, I was in Colorado and attended a House party for recently-appointed Colorado Senator Mike Bennet. Joining me was Darcy Burner, the legendary people-powered congressional candidate from Seattle, who spoke on a panel with me the next day.

I was very much looking forward to taking inventory of this new senator. Was he smart? Was he authentic? Did he connect with regular people? The answer to all of these things was yes. Indeed, in 30 minutes of Q&A, he quickly rose on the list of politicians I respect.

With one big exception. For some odd reason, he seemed to freeze up -- twice -- when asked about his position on the Employee Free Choice Act. He said he didn't have a position.

The next day, Darcy mentioned this during our panel. Local progressive activist Max Tyler raised his hand and said he asked Bennet the same question at another event and got the same answer. Colorado blogger John Erhardt of SquareState.net describes what happened next:

Darcy Burner challenged us in that discussion to call [Colorado] senators and congressmen, to pressure them to support worker's rights. So when the panel ended, an amazing thing happened. Candidate for CO-06, David Canter came to the front of the room and asked if he could be part of that challenge.

On the spot, Canter cut a YouTube video with Darcy and Max Tyler, announcing that he was posting an online petition urging Colorado's congressional delegation to stand with workers and publicly endorse the Employee Free Choice Act. Here's the video:

This was a remarkably bold thing for a first-time congressional candidate to do--challenging a sitting U.S. Senator and others to get off the fence on an important issue. You can add your voice to Canter's call by signing his petition here. (You can also give this bold progressive a buck by donating here.)

And Senator Bennet, if you'd like to do something similarly bold, feel free to announce your position on the Employee Free Choice Act right here at the OpenLeft!

Lawmakers Target Individual Voters, While Failing to Address Systemic Problems

project vote — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 21:36:20 GMT

Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns

Recent analyses of the 2008 general election find that overall participation increased on November 4, with a significant surge in voter participation among historically underrepresented Americans. Yet, while some lawmakers have been inspired by the recent voter turnout to propose election reforms that expand access to voting rights, others continue to focus on creating additional barriers to voting.
While new legislation aims to create additional hurdles to prevent one of the rarest election crimes-individual voter fraud-- some more serious election administration problems have still not been addressed a month (and, in some cases, years) after they were identified as Election Day problems, and little to no legislation to improve the way states manage voter rolls or distribute provisional ballots has been filed to date.

"I know there's a perception out there that this election proceeded more smoothly than the one four years ago," said election law expert at Ohio State University, Dan Tokaji in a recent Associated Press report. "But it's also clear from this election that we've got serious problems that remain," he said.

The inconsistency among states in interpreting federal election law is proving problematic in the administration of elections. Provisional ballots, for example, which are granted to voters who encounter "voter registration problems or because a person had signed up to vote by mail but wanted to cast their ballot at the polls," are counted differently from state to state, rendering many legitimate ballots ineligible if not cast within the correct county or even precinct.

In Colorado, a recent lawsuit to look into the questionable purging of 44,000 voters led to the investigation of whether 69 rejected provisional ballots were actually legitimate, according to Rocky Mountain News reporter, Myung Oak Kim.

"The analysis is being done as a result of a lawsuit filed last month by state and national voter-rights groups against Secretary of State Mike Coffman," Kim wrote. "The plaintiffs claimed that Coffman inappropriately removed scores of people from the voter rolls in violation of a federal law that prohibits purging of voter files within 90 days of a federal election. Coffman contends that it was legal to remove 44,000 voter files since May."

About 365 voters with canceled registrations cast provisional ballots, wrote Kim. Statewide, more than 53,000 provisional ballots were cast, about 80 percent of which were actually counted.

In 2004, acceptance rate of provisional ballots varied from 96 percent in Alaska to 6 percent in Delaware, according to a Project Vote report, Maximizing the Effectiveness of Provisional Voting.

These kinds of inconsistencies are also being challenged in Ohio for their potential to violate "citizens' equal protection and due process rights," according to the Associated Press . The report announced the court's decision to move forward with a lawsuit challenging the state's voting system after the 2004 presidential election.

"The Ohio lawsuit cites examples of voters in some counties who were misdirected by poll workers, believe their votes were miscounted or not counted at all, found broken or not enough voting machines at their polling sites, and it also alleges misuse of provisional ballots. It claims the irregularities fell disproportionately on minority voters," AP reports.

The case, filed by the League of Women Voters three years ago, cites election system issues that date back to 1971. And yet the problems persisted in 2008, according to Pete Johnson of The Free Press. According to this story, a coalition of Election Day observers from The Columbus Institute for Contemporary Journalism and the Ohio Green Party found an "outrageous" number of provisional ballots being distributed in inner city precincts due to misinterpretation of voter ID law and even data errors on voter rolls. Malfunctioning machines were also reportedly a serious voting inhibitor.

Despite state compliance issues with state and federal election law to protect and facilitate voting rights, from registration to ballot casting, several states are attempting to institutionalize barriers instead.

After instituting Same Day Registration during the early voting period this year to the dismay of state partisans, Ohio Republican lawmakers are attempting to halt the practice by passing a bill (SB 380) that would require voters to be registered 30 days before the early voting period, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. Most states require voters to register 30 days before the actual election.

Proposals in other states to implement Same Day or Election Day Registration are being met with resistance from election officials. In West Virginia, for example, according to local newspaper, Beckley Register-Herald, "a proposal before a legislative interims panel would allow potential voters to come by Election Day, get registered and promptly mark ballots, all in one convenient trip."

But many elections clerks are against the proposal out of unsubstantiated fear of voter fraud.
"They don't realize what a monster they're trying to create," Raleigh County, W. Va. Clerk, Betty Riffe said of proposed EDR in the state. "They should, with other states trying it and all the problems they've had. I don't think it's a good idea." According to public policy group, Demos, voter fraud in EDR states is rare. Over three federal election cycles (1999-2005), "only 10 discrete incidents of voter fraud or alleged voter fraud that appeared
to have some merit [were found]. Of these, there was only one case of voter impersonation at the polls-ironically one of the most frequently claimed abuses when fraud enters the public debate."

And the isolated voter fraud problems that led to federal investigation "were directly attributable
to clerical errors, poll worker shortages and incompetence, not any organized scheme or intent on the
part of voters to scam the system," according to the report.

The Orlando Sentinel criticizes the "movement brewing to overhaul the nation's system of elections through a series of federal mandates." The editorial not only slams the prospect of federally mandated Election Day Registration because of the "chaos" that uninformed voters would bring to the polls, but inexplicably dismisses the idea of providing high school graduates the opportunity to register to vote.

"In Florida, the deadline is about one month before the general election. It's hard to muster much sympathy for someone who doesn't start paying attention until a few weeks before Election Day."

The editorial trivializes the need for such reforms by pinning the problem on the voter who, presumably, could not take the time to register before Election Day. In reality, voters who do not have stable residences and set incomes face more hurdles when it comes to registering to vote and staying on the rolls. Young, low income, and minority voters change residences at much higher rates than the national average of 14 percent, according to recent Census Bureau data. This requires them to go through the often untimely process of re-registering whenever they change residences and the headache that may result from overzealous list maintenance procedures (as illustrated in Colorado). Election Day Registration would help ameliorate those problems.

Like the argument against EDR in West Virginia, unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud are also perpetuating the demand for voter ID by lawmakers in numerous states for the 2009 legislative sessions.

In Mississippi, secretary of state and longtime voter ID advocate, Delbert Hosemann hopes to resurrect nine failed voter ID bills from 2008 by supporting early voting as long as it involves voter identification in 2009, according to the Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. However, House Apportionment and Elections Committee Chairman Tommy Reynolds said the two reforms are unrelated and should not be tied together.

Maryland, another state hoping to pass a voter ID law, is also making headlines.

"Republican Delegate Nic Kipke drew headlines earlier this month when he said he would propose the requirement for Anne Arundel County during the 2009 General Assembly session," according local publication, the Frederick News-Post. However, lawmakers say that the law, which is criticized for its potential to "disenfranchise poor voters because there is a fee for state-issued identification such as a driver's license" is unlikely to pass.

Finally, one state actually has a voter ID bill filed and ready to be heard in 2009. The Oklahoma bill will be carried over from the 2008 session, according to the Associated Press. "Senate Bill 4 changes the types of documents that would be required, but still requires voters to provide identification. The new measure requires a photo identification that is issued by the federal government, state government or a tribe. If one of those items is not available, the voter can show a county-issued voter ID card."

Seemingly ignoring numerous lawsuits and reports that point to systemic problems in recent elections, lawmakers continue to point the finger at individual voters-not the state election system-as the biggest threat to election integrity. Enacting laws to prevent the rare crime of voter fraud does not alleviate the real issue of long lines, misuse of provisional ballots, data errors on voter rolls, or voting machine malfunctions. Until states get the system right, and remove state-to-state inconsistencies and barriers to participation, shouldn't the real focus be on reforms that create easier access to voting such as EDR?

Quick Links:
www.ElectionLegislation.org

In Other News:

Some confusion over motor-voter - Fredericksburg Free Lance Star [Va.]
A Virginia driver's license is not a ticket to vote.

OPINION: Where Are The New Voters? Look Closer: Overall Turnout Increased, But Some Sections Of The Population Took A Giant Leap Forward - National Journal
Given voter registration spikes and widespread predictions that this year's turnout would shatter records, it's tempting to look at exit polls and ask: Where did all the voters go?

Exit Poll Analysis Suggests Obama Victory Due to Surge in Youth and Minority Voting

project vote — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 21:43:42 GMT

The United States saw dramatic increases in voting from traditionally underrepresented groups, including minorities and young voters, according to a new analysis released this week by Project Vote. If borne out by systematic analysis of the voter rolls, this change in the electorate is evidence of the power of successful voter registration drives and an indication of the strong inclination of voters to participate in the process when candidates address their issues.
Countering the conventional wisdom that the voting population on November 4 did not change as dramatically as predicted, the analysis, The Demographics of Voters in America's 2008 General Election: A Preliminary Assessment, demonstrates that African-Americans, Latinos, and young voters cast millions more ballots in 2008 than in 2004.

"The analysis estimated that about 5.8 million more minorities voted in this year's presidential election than in 2004, while nearly 1.2 million fewer whites went to the polls," wrote Greg Gordon of McClatchy Newspapers. "The figures appear to reflect the success of Project Vote and other liberal voter registration groups in registering millions of young, poor, elderly and minority Americans to vote in recent election cycles."

According to the analysis, African-Americans cast nearly three million more ballots nationwide in 2008 than in 2004-an increase of 21 percent. The total votes cast by Latinos went up by 16 percent-more than 1.5 million-and young Americans aged 18-29 cast 1.8 million more votes, a nine percent increase. That the overall totals did not increase significantly compared to 2004 was in part due to a decrease in voting by white voters.

In addition to presenting an analysis of ballots cast from the United States as a whole, the memo by Project Vote consultant and Ph.D. candidate Jody Herman and Barnard College political science professor Lorraine Minnite examines several key states in detail, including Colorado, Florida, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

The Project Vote data is preliminary, and does not speak to "turnout," which is traditionally a measure of the percentage of the voting-eligible population that shows up to vote. Project Vote expects to release a full report on turnout in the 2008 election in 2009 when government survey data on the voting-eligible population comes available. Yet, this preliminary analysis indicates that a significant shift occurred this year.

"There is no doubt that this surge in voting by Americans of color and young people had a powerful impact on the outcome of the election," said Michael Slater, executive director of Project Vote, in a press release issued today.

"Separate opinion polls and election results themselves indicate that an overwhelming majority of African-Americans and Latinos backed Obama," according to Gordon.

"Thus, the appearance of an African-American presidential candidate with a sympathetic message may have prompted the nation's minorities to vote at levels approaching white voters -- if final state vote counts do not upend Project Vote's figures," wrote AlterNet's Steve Rosenfeld last week. "Its findings also suggest the U.S. electorate is not an inflexible assembly of voting constituencies, but has segments that are mobilized -- or demobilized -- depending on the year, candidate and message,"

In an email exchange with Rosenfeld, Frank Sharry, executive director of pro-immigration reform group, America's Voice, said "neither the turnout increase among Latinos -- nor the swing in support to Democrats -- were surprising."

"Telling people you don't like them and don't want them is not a winning electoral strategy," wrote Sharry. "But that is what the Republican Party has been saying to immigrants, Latino immigrants in particular, for the past four years. No surprise, then, that record numbers of Latinos turned out in 2008 and that the swing away from Republicans to Democrats among Latino immigrants in particular was dramatic."

Election Reform: Universal Registration and Early Voting Take Lead in Voting Rights Discussion

project vote — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 23:54:29 GMT

Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns

Following one of the most momentous elections in the nation's history, officials and advocates across the country are already turning their attention to the future of American democracy. After a grueling battle over voter registration, voter roll maintenance, and ballot access for the ever growing electorate, leaders and advocates are evaluating what worked this year and considering major administrative and legislative overhauls before coming elections.
Last week, voters exhibited "remarkable persistence and patience" after "waiting in lines way too long" or "questioning challenges to their right to cast a ballot," the Washington Post editorialized Sunday.
"The fact that problems were not as pervasive as they might have been is due to the hard work of the voting rights community and election administrators in the months and even years before the election and the enthusiasm and persistence of voters," wrote voting rights expert, Tova Wang of Common Cause at AlterNet.

Some are calling the turnout of 132 million voters, according to figures from Monday's Los Angeles Times, a "record." However, others claim the turnout, while high at 62 percent, was just shy of beating the record 67 percent turnout of 1960, according to Curtis Gans, director of American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate on NPR Tuesday. Although the number of voters always goes up-by about 6.5 million this year--Gans said the percentage may not. Despite clear electoral excitement across the country, with record numbers of young and minority voters registering to vote earlier this year, the relatively unremarkable turnout and the "forbearance" voters needed to cast a ballot may be indicative of a need to revamp the election system to provide access to all eligible citizens without compromising the democratic process.

After what voting rights advocate, Wendy Weiser calls the "ACORN issue," - referring to partisan attacks against third-party voter registration drives - voting rights advocates hope to "shift the onus on registering from the individual to government" through Universal Voter Registration, according to the Post.

"This means the registration process would no longer serve as a barrier to the right to vote," said Weiser, a lawyer at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law in the Times.

"All across America, our people wasted untold hours dealing with duplicate registrations," said R. Doug Lewis, executive director of the National Assn. of Election Officials, according to the Times. This issue, along with high mobility rates in the country (which tend to be higher among lower income and younger citizens), warrant a revamping of the system. Under the current system, voters are required to update their registration every time they move, something that many voters do not realize, according to the Times.

To help resolve this, groups like the Brennan Center are proposing Universal Voter Registration, whereby states "update their computerized voter rolls when residents move from one city to another. And they could add new voters who move to the state and apply for driver's licenses." Others propose to "automatically add teens when they turn 18," the Times reports. "Under some plans, Congress could create a national voter registration roll, modeled after the Social Security database. Others say states should take the lead in expanding and improving their voter rolls."

Similar methods have been discussed by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D N.Y.), who has said she plans to introduce legislation to move automatic voter registration, according to the Times.

With an estimated third of all voters taking advantage of their state's early voting laws this presidential election, convenience voting (voting early or by mail without an excuse) is taking the lead in election reform discussions. According to the Post, "studies have shown that early voting results in greater participation."

As a result of the apparent early voting success across the country, various jurisdictions are considering early voting, including the city of Worcester, Massachusetts. City Councilors hoped to file legislation to allow early voting as well as Election Day Registration in the city, two measures that are not allowed under state law, according to the Worcester Telegram.

"The intent behind early voting is to increase voter participation and relieve congestion at the polls on Election Day," according to the Telegram.

However, some election experts are still skeptical of early voting and its mobilization powers: "There's no evidence that convenience voting...enhances turnout," Gans told NPR. "There is some evidence that it detracts from turnout. Of the 13 states that had the greatest decrease in turnout this time around, 12 of them had one of the convenience voting features. Of the 14 states that had the greatest increase, only six had convenience voting. This has been true in every election."

Gans continued, "this is a time shift for some people. Some people with no excuse absentee [voting] leave their ballots on the kitchen table. You diffuse mobilization over a period of X number of days rather than one day and you reduce the power. In this election, the Democrats did a major early vote mobilization effort, but it's not clear that they would've gotten the same amount of votes had they showed up on Election Day."

Other issues in election reform discussions include anti-voter caging and deceptive practices measures. After incidences of voter intimidation, such as a phony flier in Virginia that misled voters to believe Republicans voted Tuesday while Democrats voted Wednesday, advocates are pushing legislation to ban deceptive practices. "It's amazing how many emails with deliberate misleading information were sent out this year," Wang told the Times.

Wang said that a pending 2007 U.S. bill banning deceptive practices (S 453) has not yet become law, but stands "a good chance next year" because a key sponsor of last year's bill to outlaw deceptive election fliers was Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). In an AlterNet opinion piece, Wang also touched on the issue of voter caging, providing support for anti-caging U.S. Senate Bill 2305. The pending bill is similar to U.S. House Bill 5038.

On a state level, key states Ohio and Colorado are taking measures to evaluate this year's election issues. Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is planning a one-day, bipartisan summit "to see what worked well and see what the state can do better," reported the Associated Press, referring to a slew of recent election issues, including multiple Republican filed lawsuits regarding voter registration lists; the state's "unique" same day registration/early voting period; and the "surge in voters" who opted to vote on paper ballots, overwhelming officials in several large counties on Election Day.

Similarly, Colorado's Election Reform Commission was scheduled to meet Wednesday "to begin identifying ways to improve future elections in Colorado," particularly regarding mail voting, voter registration, voter purging and provisional balloting, according to the Rocky Mountain News. "The commission, established by a state law passed in the spring, is charged with making recommendations to the legislature by March."

Quick Links:
Weiser, Wendy. Universal Voter Registration. Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law. 31 October 2008.
Convenience Voting. Project Vote [Web page].

In Other News:

Polls show big Hispanic voter turnout: Univision hails registration effort in state - Las Vegas Sun
A few days before early voting began Oct. 18, Univision anchor Luis Felipe Godinez stood next to a giant thermometer like the ones used for fundraising drives. He issued a challenge to his audience.

Let the bills begin: Area legislators get early start on 81st legislative session - Athens Review [Texas]
...Brown filed a bill requiring voters to present identification to vote. She said a voter will present either one photo identification card, such as a drivers license, or two forms of non-photo ID.

Erin Ferns is a Research and Policy Analyst with Project Vote's Strategic Writing and Research Department (SWORD).

McCain sinks to new lows at campaign's end...

btchakir — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 13:24:15 GMT

Two days to go til the election and, surprise surprise, McCain is doing everything from criticizing Obama's patriotism in speeches to pamphleteering many unsubstantiated charges... like Obama favors criminals over police.
Joe Biden commented on the McCain endgame in a speech yesterday:

"In my view, over the last few weeks, John McCain's campaign has gone way over the top," said Biden Saturday at an outdoor rally on Evansville's Main Street. "They are trying to take the low road to the highest office in the land. It's not only George Bush's economic policies that John McCain has bought hook, line and sinker. He's also bought Karl Rove's brand of political tactics."
"It is disappointing, I never thought I'd see this from a McCain campaign," Biden continued. "They're calling Barack Obama every name in the book. They are going out in a way that I don't recall it being more personally vicious."
As a supporter yelled, "They're scared!" the Delaware senator predicted that the tone would get worse in the last three days. (via CNN)

In reality, the early voting has stacked up in Obama's favor.

Just under 50% of the vote in Colorado, for instance, a swing state, is in already and it appears to be 2 to 1 in Obama's favor. This is a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats... but Independents are the largest group. That is where Obama seems to be doing very well.

Florida, which McCain must win if he is t be elected, has the Republican falling behind in many polls.

The NY Times pointed out yesterday that there are reasons for Democratic optimism in Florida:

Emblematic of the challenge was the experience of two Republican canvassers who appeared at Beth Moriarty's door in Orlando Thursday looking for her husband's vote. Her response was blunt.
"Y'all are totally at the wrong house," Ms. Moriarty said. "My husband, he's 62, he has never voted for a Democrat in his entire life. Until Tuesday."
Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, has a litany of structural advantages to help him. With only days to go, the Obama campaign has more of just about everything: offices (100 to Mr. McCain's 80); advertising money (outspending the McCain campaign four to one in some weeks); and voter registrations (a 660,000 Democratic edge over Republicans, up from 280,000 in 2006).

McCain senior advisor Nicole Wallace speaks for the Republican campaign, however, with the view that the polls are "tightening:"

"We have never been as convinced as others by some of the discouraging numbers. We are not saying we are moving ahead of him. But we are certainly encouraged by the tightening of the polls."

While this may be true, fivethirtyeight.com, a polling site, notes that it is very difficult to get accurate polling on weekends, especially when there is a holiday (Halloween).

So it's coming down to the wire. We have Dick Cheney giving McCain his nod, a scary thought in itself... the current VP is one of the least popular figures in American politics right now. And we have President Bush apparently keeping himself almost invisible in order not to effect the election.

But Sarah Palin continues as the negative voice of the Republicans, as she pushes through the swing states:

At a rally in central Florida for Mr. McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, supporters chanted "John McCain! Not Hussein!" Mr. Obama's middle name is Hussein, and some of his opponents use it to falsely suggest that he is Muslim. (via NY Times)

And McCain seems to beputting all of his chips in Pennsylvania, where the polls are heavily in Obama's favor.

We'll have to see where we go from here.

Under The LobsterScope

Obama Wins!!! (Updated)

Chris Bowers — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 07:18:02 GMT

Barack Obama has won the 2008 Presidential Election.

Yes, you read that right. And no, I am not joking.

People will probably say that I am calling the election too early, which could depress turnout. People might say that I am taking too much for granted, which is especially bad for a committeeperson in West Philadelphia. People might say that I am simply being foolish, because there is time left and a lot can change in four days. For these people, I have five quick points (more in the extended entry).
Here is why this is over:

In order to win the election, all Barack Obama needs are the Kerry states, plus Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. That adds up to 273 electoral votes.
Obama leads by at least 9.5% in every Kerry state and Iowa, according to both Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics. Also, my own numbers concur with those calculations.
This means that in order to win the election, all Obama has to do is hold onto states where he leads by 9.5% or more, and win both Colorado and New Mexico. These are both states where more than half of all voters will cast their ballots before Election Day (source). In other words, the elections in Colorado and New Mexico are already almost over, not just beginning. And these are the only two states he needs to win, other than the ones where he leads by double-digits.
In Colorado, about 60% of the vote is already in. According to the crosstabs of the three most recent polls in the state, Obama leads early voters by 15% (Rasmussen), 18% (Marist) and 17% (PPP). Even in the best case scenario for McCain, where he only trails by 15% among those who have already voted and only 55% of the vote is in, he still needs to win the remaining voters by 18.4% in order to eek out the state. And that is the best-case scenario. The worst case scenario for McCain--65% of the vote in and an 18% deficit among early voters--is that he needs to win the remaining voters by 33.5% in order to win the election.
That leaves New Mexico. In 2004, New Mexico had an even higher rate of early voting than Colorado (50.6% to 47.9%). Further, all polling aggregation sites show Obama's lead to be larger in New Mexico than in Colorado. While the recent dearth of polling in the Land of Enchantment means there are no early voting crosstabs, those two facts suggest the situation is even worse for McCain in New Mexico than in Colorado. At the very least, it isn't much better. Update: A new poll from PPP in New Mexico indicates that 56% of the vote is in, and Obama leads 64%-36% among those voters. If that is accurate, McCain would have to win the remaining voters by 35.7%.

So, unless Obama one of the following occurs:

Obama blows a double-digit lead in either Iowa or one Kerry state
McCain wins the minority of remaining voters in either Colorado or New Mexico by at least 20%

Then the election is over and Obama has won no matter what happens anywhere else.

If people wonder why Obama has recently campaigned in seemingly safe states like Iowa and Pennsylvania, this is why. The only possible way he can lose at this point is if he blows one of those states. In this situation, if I were making the decisions, I would have him campaign there, too.

This has me very, very excited. Barack Obama is going to be the next President of the United States. He is effectively ahead by double-digits right now, and leads like that don't disappear in four days. Obama wins!

Things Are Looking Very Good

Chris Bowers — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:26:19 GMT

Worried about "the tightening?"

Well, Obama's national lead has been stable at 7% for a month now. The national campaign is not tightening, and we are just seeing statistical noise.

Even if the campaign were tightening, Obama would still have a comfortable national lead. According to polling conducted over the weekend during the tracking poll "tightening," Obama reaches 264 electoral votes in states where he leads by 9.5% or more, passes 277 in Virginia where he leads by 8.0%, and hits 286 in states where he leads by 7.3% or more. So, he is actually doing even better in the Electoral College, where 270 votes are needed to win, than he is doing in national polls where he leads by 7%.

Sound too good to be true? It isn't. I provide complete details in the extended entry.
Here is the Pollster.com national regression line, from October 1st through today:

While it is certainly true that the tracking polls are a bit closer than they were two or three days ago, when one takes a look at the trends beyond the single day fluctuation, stability is the overriding characteristic. Obama's margin over McCain has not changed by more than 1% during the month. These broader trends are more important than day-to-day trends, because they filter out the inevitable day-to-day fluctuations that occur when using a fluid measurement device (polls) to measure a fluid subject (public opinion). My past warnings on day to day tracking poll trends ring as true now as they did when I first wrote them three weeks ago:

8.5% is the maximum victory: First, as I warned on Monday, please keep in mind that an 8,5% national victory is the maximum. In the last sixteen national elections (U.S. House and Presidential), the largest victory was Bill Clinton's 8.51% victory in 1996. The simple fact is that no one wins by double digits anymore. This goes for the large Republican victories in 1988 (President--7.72%), 1994 (5.9%), and 2002 (4.6%). It also goes for the large Democratic victories of 1992 (President--5.56%), 1996 (President--8.51%) and 2006 (7.9%). "Landslides" are now 5-8% national victories, not anything larger. Given that a very real percentage of Democrats and Independents won't vote for him because he is black, it was always absurd to think that Obama was going to break this mark. When Obama reached an 8% national lead, the only place for him to go was down.
Polls aren't static: Second, as I warned yesterday, even if you accept that it is impossible for Obama's lead to continue rising, don't expect it to remain static, either. Polls are using non-static means (statistical ranges with margins of error) to measure a non-static subject matter (public opinion). So, when there is nowhere to go but down, when the polls inevitably start moving again, it isn't a shock to see them move down

The Pollster.com October chart shows that the month-long trend of Obama peaking followed by McCain tightening followed by Obama peaking followed by McCain tightening isn't really a trend at all. It has just been a month of statistical noise of Obama's national lead hovering around 7%. Even though the tracking polls are a bit tighter today than the last few days, I see no reason to believe that this stability has been broken, and that this is anything more than the latest McCain tightening (Saturday and Sunday) following an Obama peak (Tuesday through Friday) following a McCain tightening (the seven days before that) following an Obama peak (the five days before that).

Now, as a final, less than reassuring note, it should said that this might be something different that the latest downward node in a longstanding pattern of stability and statistical noise. The last five presidential campaigns have tightened toward the end, and even the 2006 midterms tightened up a bit toward the end. It is possible that this is happening again, and even I have theorized that this will result in a final polling margin of 4-5% in favor of Obama. However, public opinion in presidential campaigns do not follow historical laws, meaning that just because it happened a certain way in the past is no reason for it to happen exactly the same way again.

Further, even if it did tighten up to 4-5% on the eve of the Election, that still means Obama wins comfortably. The Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Virginia show now signs of wavering, as Obama leads by more than 7.0% in all of them even according to polling conducted over the weekend. That puts Obama at 286 electoral votes where McCain has to make up at least 8.0%, as that is the amount he currently trails by in Virginia across the seven telephone polls conducted this week. Beyond Virginia, as I wrote in last night;s forecast, Obama leads by 7.3% in Colorado across three polls, and all the other states listed here are even bigger Obama leads.

So, in short, things still look very, very good for Obama right now. Don't let the tightening get to you. We are going to win this thing. All polling evidence points towards an enormous Democratic trifecta, surpassing even the one President Clinton enjoyed during his first two years in office.

Why do you support John McCain?

jlars — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 04:59:02 GMT

I took some time off last week from Campaigning for Barack and Mark Udall to video tape a few interviews at a local Palin Rally. Here are the results:

Is McCain Campaigning for the White House or Just the House?

tremayne — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 00:45:00 GMT

There's been much discussion over the McCain campaign's apparent retreat from Colorado in favor of longshot Pennsylvania. And now we get the news that John McCain and Sarah Palin will crisscross PA next week, making numerous appearances.

Why give up on Colorado, the state that could give Barack Obama his winning margin and where polling and history suggest better potential than Pennsylvania? Most of the speculation I've read has centered on electoral math and the desire of the McCain campaign to win one big blue state rather than trying to defend multiple poor-trending red states.

Here's another idea I got when looking at the polling for competitive House races at Pollster: Pennsylvania has more closely contested House races than any other state except Florida which has the same number, 10. Colorado, meanwhile, has only one and that one moved strongly toward the Dems a month ago.

The RNC has been footing much of the bill for the McCain campaign which is limited to 84 million dollars in federal matching funds. Has that money come with strings attached? Has the McCain campaign been pressured into the PA strategy in a bid to limit the damage in House races there? Another state McCain and/or Palin will visit next week? Ohio, with seven more competitive House races.

If the RNC believes McCain is going to lose they may at least want him to limit the damage in Congress. Does this theory make sense or not?

Amendment 48 in Colorado - ProLifers are at it again!

btchakir — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:55:12 GMT

The "right-to-lifers" in Colorado are trying to get an amendment to their state constitution that declares a "fertilized egg" to be a "person." On the web site "Life Counts" we find this:

Colorado for Equal Rights has announced the support of over 70 physicians and pharmacists, including neonatologists, family physicians, ob/gyns, pediatricians, and other physicians. nationwide. These physicians have stated that they concur with the statement, "A 'person' includes any human from the time of fertilization."

However, the "Protect Families, Protect Choices" website gives us this:

In summary, the Executive Board of the Colorado Gynecological-Obstetrical Society opposes this ballot initiative. This position is consistent with opinions expressed by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. The intended and unintended consequences of the proposed constitutional amendment represents an intrusion into the practice of medicine. Such an amendment would have a negative, restrictive impact on clinical practice and a detrimental effect on the health of women in Colorado.

Are you with me so far?

I got to thinking about this new extreme right push for what is really religion-based law that effects the lives of women (and the economies of all Americans, male and female). Like most such campaigns, the right has come up with a new label, "personhood", to set a definition of the fertilized egg (remember how successful the right was in coining "partial birth abortion", a misleading and non-medical branding of a seldom performed medical emergency practice) and they stress it in every release and announcement.

However, the issue is really quite different. This from the Coalition for Secular Government:

The common claim that "life begins at conception" cannot justify Amendment 48. The fact that something is human and alive does not make it a person. Every cell in our body is both human and alive, yet we don't worry about giving blood for testing or scraping off a few skin cells in a fall. A fertilized egg is distinctive because, in addition to being alive and human, it might develop into a born baby given the right conditions. What supporters of Amendment 48 cannot show, however, is that a potential baby has the moral status of an actual baby. The difference between them is enormous.
An embryo or fetus is wholly dependent on the woman for its basic life-functions. It goes where she goes, eats what she eats, and breathes what she breathes. It lives as an extension of her body, contained within and dependent on her for its survival. It is only a potential person, not an actual person. That situation changes radically at birth. The newborn baby exists as a distinct organism, separate from his mother. Although still very needy, he lives his own life. He is a person -- and individual. His life must be protected as a matter of right.
Consequently, when a woman chooses to terminate a pregnancy she does not violate the rights of any person. Instead, she is exercising her own rights over her own body -- likely in pursuit of her own health, well-being, and happiness. Amendment 48 would destroy those rights in Colorado.

My feeling is that it will perhaps develop a wholly new state bureaucracy.

Say a couple has unprotected sexual intercourse one evening. Will they be required the next morning to call a government office to announce the potential creation of a new "person" - a citizen, as it were - which must be registered just like we register a birth certificate now? And will the huge number of potential registered "persons" set up new tax problems for the state (for instance, does the fertilized egg get a "child tax deduction", causing the state to lose millions in operating income while adding millions to its management costs?

Personhood is exposed for what it really is, an anti-abortion political gambit, in the Colorado Daily:

There is no firm consensus on the definition of personhood between lawmakers, religious followers, philosophers and bioethicists. The authors of 48 make no bones about their agenda, which is not to clarify what personhood truly is, but, rather, to outlaw abortion.
Personhood is a category to be taken seriously because it has profound ethical and legal implications. We should be very careful not to confuse things that are alive with things that are persons, which is what the text of 48 does.
In the United States legal system, the term "person" implies a human being who, in addition to their rational faculties, has certain rights and duties bestowed upon them. The key word in this is "duties." Anything, living or not, can be awarded rights. But in order to fulfill duties, a person must posses some degree or self-awareness or self-consciousness.
So how does this apply to our 48 problem? These indications of what makes a person are not sharply defined, but the wording of the bill is radical enough (in equating a fertilized egg to a person) that the abstractions become useful.
It would be foolish to propose that a single cell has thinking ability -- zygotes do not have brains or nervous systems. They are not self-conscious and they cannot perform duties.

Of course, we could have a fertilized egg working at the desk of a new department. Wouldn't that be performing duties?

What do YOU think?

Under The LobsterScope

McCain Pulls Back In Several States

Chris Bowers — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 02:44:54 GMT

McCain isn't pulling out of Colorado, but he is pulling back:

Democrats who monitor advertising spending now put at five the number of states where Senator John McCain is reducing his advertising - New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota.

In essence, Mr. McCain's campaign has decided to spread the advertising time he bought for the upcoming week in those states over the next two final weeks.

While station managers in the affected states said they were not ruling out the possibility that Mr. McCain would pump money back in before election day, on Nov. 4, the move represents a stark reordering of priorities.

The consensus seems to be that McCain will now target Pennsylvania instead of these other states. Outside of the Morning Call Tracking poll, there has actually been somewhat minimal polling in Pennsylvania over the last two weeks. Still, what polling there is indicates that McCain is further behind in Pennsylvania than he is in Colorado. Pennsylvania is also far more expensive, making it more difficult for McCain to compete financially against Obama's overwhelming money machine.

Best as I can figure it, the McCain campaign simply figures that Pennsylvania is worth exactly as many electoral votes as Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico combined. So, they are basically deciding to target the 2004 Bush states, plus Pennsylvania, minus Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. I still think it is a stupid strategy, but the McCain campaign hasn't particularly impressed me with their intelligence so far. Why would their final move be any less dumb than genius decisions like "Green Screen," "Sarah Palin," and "Suspend Campaign." Just throw poor electoral targeting onto the end of a very long list.

Read The Fine Print On Big Campaign Moves

Chris Bowers — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 03:00:00 GMT

There was apparently a major revelation about each campaign tonight, with McCain reportedly writing off Colorado and Obama canceling his appearances on Thursday and Friday in order to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. However, I encourage everyone to look at the fine print in both of these moves, which are not as earth shaking as they might appear.

First, look closely at what John King actually said about McCain and Colorado. (More in the extended entry)
Here is the King quote (emphasis mine):

Most people top in the McCain campaign now believe New Mexico and Iowa are gone, that Barack Obama will win New Mexico and Iowa. They are now off the dream list of the McCain campaign. More interestingly, most top people inside the McCain campaign think Colorado is gone.

Note the "most." King didn't say that McCain has written off Colorado (or Iowa or New Mexico), just that most members of the campaign think it is lost. They would be accurate on that count. However, I'll believe McCain pulls out of Colorado when he stops running ads there. Or, say, when his campaign stops holding rallies there, as Palin just did earlier this evening. Giving up on Colorado, where McCain trails by 4.5%, and going for Pennsylvania, where he trails by at least 10.0%, would be a colossally stupid move by McCain. Gore and Kerry won PA. In 2006, Dems won four House seats in PA, plus both statewide elections by 18% (Senate) and 21% (Governor) respectively. And then, Dems gained several hundred thousand voter registrations on Republicans, to reach 49% and a one million voter registration lead. The idea that McCain can win Pennsylvania is laughable. Ha ha ha.

Second, yes, Obama really is canceling some of his Thursday and Friday appearances to visit his sick grandmother in Hawaii. However, check out which appearances he is canceling, and which ones he is not:

The change of plans means Obama will scrap scheduled rallies Thursday in Des Moines, Iowa, and Madison, Wisc. He will instead head to Indianapolis, Ind., for a morning event, leave for Hawaii and return to the campaign trail Saturday.

Obama is canceling trips to Iowa and Wisconsin, two states that are already in the bag. Obama leads by 8, 12, 15, 17, 10, 10 and 10 according to the last seven polling firms in Wisconsin. In Iowa, he leads by double-digits, and by over 30% among those who have already voted. However, he is still appearing in Indiana, which leans toward McCain but is still much closer than the other two.

In short, Obama had a deep blue hole in his schedule that gave him a chance to go see his grandmother. It probably will look good too, as not visiting your dying grandmother isn't the best way to win over undecideds. Then again, knowing my grandmothers, were I in a position to become President, they probably would have demanded that I stay on the campaign trail. But hey, I grew up Catholic, and guilt works in mysterious ways.

So, I'm not convinced these are the big moves they are made out to be. McCain hasn't officially pulled out of Colorado, and Obama just cancelled a couple of events in what are now deep blue states. Obviously, they are worth noting, but I don't see either as big deals.

Look To Colorado and Virginia

Chris Bowers — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 19:58:45 GMT

The national polls are definitely tightening a bit. Looking across several national poll measurements, the movement in unmistakable:

Obama National Poll Margin, 10/13 and 10/18

Org	10/13	10/18	Shift
Pollster	8.0%	5.9%	-2.1%
RCP	7.2%	6.3%	-0.9%
Tremayne	7.5%	6.2%	-1.3%
TPM	7.6%	5.2%	-2.4%
538	8.0%*	6.6%	-1.4%

* = Can't actually find the number. Going from user comments back on Monday

No matter which way you look at it, McCain has gained ground, really anywhere from 1%-2.5%, The varying movement comes from different organizations using different polls in their averages, and / or from weighting the polls differently in their averages. I tend to prefer Pollster.com, because it using all polls and applies equal weights to them ( I think).

Still, no matter which way you look at it, Obama still holds a strong lead, at least in comparison to the two most recent elections. He appears to lead by about 6% which, according to the partisan leanings of individual states in the 2004 election, would be enough to score 349 electoral votes: all of the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia. With none of the Kerry states remotely close right now, one then is prone to look at Iowa and New Mexico, which were the two narrowest Bush victories in 2004. Of the seven pickups listed above, they also happen to have the two widest margins for Obama right now according to Pollster.com and according to my own averages. So, even with a tightened campaign, we reach 264 electoral votes without breaking a sweat. And yes, there have been new state polls during the tightening period to confirm this.

So, which of the five remaining pickups are the best bets to secure victory for Obama? As long as I am allowed two answers that is actually a very easy question: Colorado and Virginia. Obama leads both of these states by 6% or more according to Pollster.com, Real Clear Politics, Electoral-Vote.com, fivethirtyeight.com, and myself. This puts both of these states right at, or possibly even above, the current national trendline. Excepting Iowa and New Mexico, they also currently give Obama noticeably wider leads than any of the other current pickup opportunities.

This is actually very good news, because it now means that Obama has not one, but two "low hanging fruit" paths to victory. If you are worried that Obama's lead is shrinking, my advice is simply to look to Colorado and Virginia. As long as he is ahead in one of those two states, then he is still headed to victory. Right now, he is so far ahead in both states, that there is virtually no chance he would the election. We have also been on real winning streaks in both states recently, picking up the Colorado Governorship (we already had the Virginia Governorship), two--and soon to be all four--U.S. Senate seats, two--and soon to be three or four--U.S. House seats, not to mention three of the four branches of the state legislatures. In other words, these are just not states where Democrats have been losing much at all.

Colorado and Virginia serve as a very strong two-state firewall. And remember, Obama only needs one.

Changing the Game: Voter Registration Drives Reshape the American Electorate

project vote — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:50:07 GMT

Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns

Monday marked the last day to register to vote before November's presidential election in many states and the conclusion to one of the nation's largest nonpartisan voter registration drives in history. Helping more than 1.3 million of the America's underrepresented young, low-income and minority citizens register to vote, Project Vote and its voter registration drive partner, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN), have played a leading role this election cycle in changing the face of the electorate to represent all Americans.
In 2006, according to Project Vote study, "Representational Bias in the 2006 Electorate," the proportion of the U.S. population that was registered to vote was biased toward Whites and older, affluent and educated voters. Latino and Black citizens were less likely to be on the voting rolls, registering 17 and 10 percentage points, respectively, behind Whites. Lower income citizens, or those earning less than $25K per year, registered 21 percentage points (60%) behind those earning $100K per year or more (81%). And in keeping with their long history of lagging voter registration and participation rates, voters under the age of 30 registered to vote at a fraction (51%) of the rate of those ages 30-64 (70%). The most stunning findings in the report were that if eligible minorities actually voted at the same rates as Whites, an extra 7.5 million votes would have been cast in 2006.

News articles from every corner of the country are reporting increased registration rates, pointing to a potentially "game-changing" reshaping of the electorate with voters feeling newly empowered to demand that elected officials address their issues. Election officials are predicting "it's going to be a tsunami of voters" on Election Day.

"In the past year, the rolls have expanded by about 4 million voters in a dozen key states," according to the Washington Post Monday. More than half of the 1.3 million that Project Vote helped register were in key states Ohio, Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania, according to Richard Wolf of USA Today, 60 percent of which "are under 30 and about two-thirds are minorities." A driving motivation behind this rise in registrations, according to ACORN board member Carmen Arias, is the "faltering economy."

"In 2004, we were met with apathy," Arias said in a press briefing Tuesday. "We had to convince people to register to vote. This year, we were met with excitement: people are excited to have an opportunity to have a say in solving the foreclosure crisis, and the health care crisis. They're eager to have politicians listen to them."

Elected officials listen to those who vote, and America's imbalanced electorate has effectively silenced millions of low-income citizens.

"We think it's important that the voices in our community get heard," said interim chief organizer of ACORN, Bertha Lewis. "This isn't just about going into the voting booth, but it's actually about strengthening democracy and instilling an ongoing commitment to effect real change."

Reports from Colorado, Michigan, and Florida all note increased registration rates and spikes in last minute registrations. On Monday, a Denver elections office took 100 people per hour who poured in to register or apply for mail ballots before the deadline, according to Myuang Oak Kim of the Rocky Mountain News. Project Vote and ACORN's voter registration effort helped more than 70,000 Colorado voters get on the rolls.

In Michigan, 95 percent of eligible voters are registered, according to the Associated Press. Local clerks, who processed 217,000 applications from Project Vote, "are gearing up for what's expected to be a heavy turnout on Election Day," which may exceed the 68 percent that turned out in 2004. To accommodate the influx, secretary of state spokeswoman Kelly Chesney said her office has recommended increasing the number of voting stations to avoid long lines as well as develop separate lines for those who "are having issues with the state's relatively new voter ID requirements."

In Florida, 430,000 "younger, more ethnically diverse and more Democratic" voters joined the voter rolls since January, according to Michael Bender of the Palm Beach Post Saturday. Project Vote and ACORN's efforts helped register152,000 of these voters.

"Everyone wants to be involved this year; they want to be a part of history," says Verna Hunter, a retired Fort Pierce, Fla. woman and long time local voter registration drive volunteer. "It's just a really inspirational time."

"Our belief, fundamentally, is that by expanding the electorate, by changing its profile, we will get candidates who will start to appeal to those new voters," said Project Vote Executive Director Michael Slater in Tuesday's press briefing. "The idea isn't to assist, whether overtly or covertly, the election of any single candidate, but to force candidates to take into account the interests of Americans who have not historically participated in as high rates as others and to start pursuing policies and programs that are more responsive to their needs."

The idea of new voters demanding different policies and programs is threatening to some entrenched powers, and many partisan attacks on voter participation programs and disinformation campaigns have already been launched with just less than four weeks to go until Election Day.

Project Vote will be running a voter education and mobilization canvass in the run-up to Election Day to ensure that all of our registrants go out to the polls. In addition we are running an aggressive Election Administration program to fight partisan attempts to suppress the vote, and ensure that all eligible voters can cast a ballot and that those ballots will be counted. Please follow this link so that you can help support Project Vote's Get Out The Vote and Election Administration Program.

Quick Links:
Hess, Douglass R. "Representational Bias in the 2006 Electorate." Project Vote. Sept. 2007.

In Other News:

States' Actions to Block Voters Appear Illegal- New York Times
Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least six swing states have been removed from the rolls or have been blocked from registering in ways that appear to violate federal law, according to a review of state records and Social Security data by The New York Times.

Disabled vet says Tucson officials kept him from voting - Associated Press
A disabled veteran says the city of Tucson prevented him from exercising his right to vote last year.

20 percent of Ohio's provisional ballots rejected - Associated Press
CLEVELAND -- Roughly 20 percent of provisional ballots cast in the March primary election in Ohio were rejected by election officials, a newspaper review found.

Idaho voter registration for students questioned - Associated Press
BOISE, Idaho - Idaho college students face some of the toughest restrictions in the nation when trying to register to vote at their college addresses, according to a national study.

Erin Ferns is a Research and Policy Analyst with Project Vote's Strategic Writing and Research Department (SWORD).

Bob Schaffer - Friend of Wall Street

NoThirdBushTerm — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:14:23 GMT

We should not send Bob Schaffer back to Washington. Schaffer has blindly supported the failed Bush economic doctrine of tax breaks for Big Oil and companies that ship U.S. jobs overseas.

Bob has done a "heckuva" job at taking care of Wall Street, while neglecting Main Street. In fact, he loves Wall Street so much that he supports CEO's keeping millions of dollars in bonuses they have earned even if they have falsified financial statements - deceiving share holders and the public in general.

Colorado's main streets need a friend in Washington, but it's not Bob Schaffer.

Are Voters Registered? Check Here to Ensure Every Vote Counts on Nov. 4

project vote — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 22:50:23 GMT

Cross posted at Project Vote's Voting Matters Blog

As history has shown, there is a difference between submitting a voter registration application and finding your name on the rolls when you go to vote. With registration coming to a close, Project Vote is conducting emergency efforts to ensure that no one who wants to vote is left out on Election Day.

Project Vote's Registration Repair Program is an intensive and urgent effort to collect and rectify large numbers of registrations that have been rejected by boards of election. We have been working all over the country to obtain disqualified applications and to contact would-be voters to repair applications with missing or erroneous information.

Check www.ProjectVote2008.org to see if your county has disqualified applications
Project Vote offers a Web site to help voters to check if they, their friends or neighbors were rejected by election authorities because of alleged or actual deficiencies in their application. Unless these people have already fixed the problem or filed another, corrected application, they will not be able to vote in November. The lists are available at www.ProjectVote2008.org. Currently featured states include Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Check back often as lists will be updated with more information in coming days.

Given that many of these counties have registration deadlines this Monday, we encourage voters to ensure they are not excluded from the voter rolls. Voters who discover they are not registered may fix the problem immediately by calling or visiting the local elections office to file a new, correct registration. This must be done before the Oct. 6 deadline to ensure all citizens who thought they registered to vote may cast a ballot on Election Day.

For more information on how to file a new, correct application, call these voter hotlines, provided by the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law: 866 OUR VOTE (866 687-8683) or 888 VE Y VOTA (888 839-8682).

No other organization is conducting such an effort to save registrations that have fallen through the bureaucratic cracks. Several boards of election have been cooperative, recognizing the importance of ensuring that every American who wants to vote is able to vote. In other cases, however, Project Vote is being met with reluctance, resistance, or outright refusal from election boards who seem content to allow thousands of would-be voters to turn up on Election Day and find that they've been left off the rolls.

Note: It is a violation of law in many states to use any of the information on any of these lists for commercial purposes.