Despite their current minority status, it appears that Republicans can still govern D.C. through the National Rifle Association. Allow me explain how.
In August of 2008, right-wing infrastructure analyst Rob Stein warned progressives that even though Republicans were discredited, and headed to overwhelming electoral defeat, the conservative institutions backing the American right-wing were still intact. From a Democracy Alliance presentation (twenty-page PDF, page 2, emphasis mine):
I want to have one moment of reality checking though. The machinery that the right has built, the 400-million dollars a year of policy institutions, the 50-million dollars a year of leadership training organizations, the nearly a billion-dollars a year worth of very targeted media, the half a billion dollars a year of civic engagement- the NRA, and the Focus on the Family. This machinery, as depleted, as the leadership and the Republican brand is right this minute and it is their office holders are obviously discredited, as depleted as they are, this machinery is alive and well.
Stein's words are absolutely correct. Also, this passage includes some eye-popping numbers. Half a billion dollars for the NRA and Focus on the Family? These are amounts that dwarf any progressive political organization, with the possible exception of some of the larger labor unions.
Further, most of this money is actually the NRA. I once saw a chart related to Stein's famous Powerpoint presentation that listed the total funding of the various conservative issue advocacy organizations. Including most of the conservative groups that Stein describes as part of the right-wing's "policy institute consortium" and the "their mobilization arm," the NRA was about twice as large as any other group. Outside of the media realm, the NRA is by far the dominant conservative political institution.
Stein's warning has proved prophetic as, outside of the 60-vote rule in the Senate, the NRA is emerging as the right-wing's top weapon against progressive legislation. Earlier this year, Oklahoma Republican Senator Tom Coburn succeeded in attaching a concealed weapons amendment to the credit card legislation. Now, the D.C. Voting rights bill has been stalled indefinitely because the Senate attached a measure to the bill stripping current D.C. gun laws, and also preventing D.C. lawmakers from passing gun control legislation in the future.
So, while Republicans remain discredited and unpopular, their machinery is still able to prevent, or modify, progressive legislation from passing into law. Apropos, two people were shot at the D.C. Holocaust Museum today.
With this success, it is worth wondering what other legislation Republicans will attempt to kill via gun related amendments. The NRA is more than a single-issue advocacy group, it is the centerpiece of the entire right-wing policy infrastructure. Already, it is expanding into other areas beyond guns, working to block credit card reform and D.C. voting equality. Given that it still has a working majority in Congress, Republicans could theoretically use it to block, or at least modify, almost any legislation they wish.
The D.C. Voting Rights Act has passed through cloture in the Senate, 62-34. It is now a certainty to pass into law.
The act grants D.C. a full voting member in the House of Representatives, a seat which will be held by a Democrat for a long, long, loooong time. Currently, the seat is held by Eleanor Holmes Norton, who is a frequent guest on the Colbert Report. In exchange, the Act also grants a fourth member of Congress to Utah (currently Utah has three Representatives, two Republicans and one Democrat). Since Utah was next in line to receive an additional Representative, this is the sort of bi-partisan compromise I can live with. We end a great stain on our Republic by giving D.C. representation in the U.S. House, get a new, uber-solid Democratic seat, and all it required was giving Utah something it would have received in 2012 anyway.
This will temporarily increase the number of full voting members in the House to 437, and makes the partisan breakdown 257-178, with two vacancies (NY-20 and UT-04). For the 2012 elections, D.C. will keep it's full voting rights, but there will be only 434 House districts seats outside of D.C. The increase to 437 seats is nice (and also ends the possibility of a tie in the Electoral College, since there are now 539 electoral votes), but I'd like to see the number of members of the U.S. House increased even more. 449, 599, or an even higher number would be fantastic. The House originally fixed the number of seats at 435 back in 1911the 1920's, and since that time the population of individual districts has more than tripled. If there were 599 seats in the House, each district would have about 510,000 members, which is roughly the current population of Wyoming and D.C. Also, with 599 members, everyone would know how many seats are required for a majority (300), how many to override a veto (400), and we would have a wave of fresh faces in Congress that could potentially shake things up.
Update: Errors corrected, thanks to the commenters.
One of the sentiments I saw expressed during yesterday's meta discussions is that "no one in D.C. reads blogs anyway." This idea has been phrased both in a cynical / depressive manner ("no one who matters is reading us, so what does it all matter anyway?") and in somewhat nastier terms ("no one who matters reads Open Left, so Open Left doesn't matter.") Well, rest assured that Washington D.C. has, by a long way, the most political blog readers, per capita, of any city in the country.
Take Open Left as an example. Google Analytics reports that, since July 11th, 2007, the day we installed the service on our website, there have been 8,597,437 visits to Open Left, and 2,551,798 absolute unique visitors (and 16,788,540 page views, fwiw). Among states, the District of Columbia (not the metro area, just the District itself) actually ranks 7th, with 317,460 visits, behind only, in order, California, New York (a surprisingly close second), Illinois, Texas, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania. Among cities, only New York City has more visits to Open Left, with 462,980 visits between Manhattan and Brooklyn combined. Manhattan and Brooklyn have, however, about 8 times the population of Washington, D.C.
If you take the typical 30% ratio between visits to Open Left and absolute unique visits to Open Left, then there have been about 105,000 unique visits to Open Left in Washington, D.C. over the past 19 months. If you further consider that only about 27% of the 700,000 jobs in Washington, D.C. are related to politics, that is roughly half of all D.C. political employees. Now, consider that Open Left consistently ranks about 15-20th in terms of audience size among progressive political blogs--and that the progressive blogs larger than us are often vastly larger--and you start to get a grasp of just how frequently political blogs are read in Washington, D.C.
Political blogging, especially progressive political blogging, is a major news medium in Washington, D.C. On a per capita basis, progressive political blogs are more frequently read in D.C. than anywhere else--and by a long, long way. People in D.C. are reading what you post here. How much of an impact it has is entirely open to question, but it is getting read.
Update 2--Edwards Wins MD-04: The Washington Post has projected Donna Edwards as the winner in the Democratic primary for Maryland's 4th congressional district! Yes, yes, yes! I'm going to sign off for the night now, and provide updated pledged delegate and popular vote totals in the morning. Congratulations to everyone!
Update--Huge night for progressive movement: With every precinct coming in with at least a 10% improvement for Edwards over 2006, let me reiterate this point: the new primary voters who are coming out for Barack Obama are also going to result in the first progressive displacement of a centrist, corporate, congressional Democrat via a primary in years. This it it. This is what we have been working for and building for. This is our emerging majority. We finally have the organization, and the voters, and the whole ball of wax. The movement has thoroughly come of age.
Update 7--New Obama Voters Breaking For Donna Edwards: Here is an exciting thought for progressives: the new primary voters who are coming out for Barack Obama are also going to result in a progressive defeat of an incumbent member of Congress in a primary. Al Wynn's numbers are stagnant from 2006, while Donna's have skyrocketed. There is massive movement building potential here.
Update 6--Donna continues domination: More precincts. PG-13-06: in 2006 it was 463-265 Wynn, and in 2008 it went 568-513 for Edwards. PG-13-04 went 260-250 Wynn in 2006, but in 2008 it went 469-299 for Edwards. Turning into a rout. Brutal but awesome. Matt is experiencing something he feels unfamiliar with--winning. It took him a while to identify the feeling. It was vaguely reminiscent of August 8th, 2006. The Connecticut for Lieberman Party has not yet endorsed Al Wynn.
Update 5--Edwards dominating early returns in MD-04: Donna Edwards is up 55-41 in early returns for MD-04 (6% in). Every precinct coming in is showing at least 10% for improvement for Edwards from 2006. This is looking very, very good. Both an Obama and an Edwards winning--who would have thunk it?
Update 4--Obama takes clear popular lead: I can now project that after tonight, Barack Obama will be ahead of Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates even with Florida and Michigan included, and even with Obama receiving zero delegates from Michigan. He will also probably pass Clinton even in the popular vote count most favorable to her. Obama is now clearly the new leader in the nomination campaign, but Wisconsin looms nest week.
Update 2--Obama wins Maryland: CNN and MSNBC both project Maryland for Obama. At first look, the exit poll shows a margin of about 62%-36%, but that always changes. Similar voting patterns to Virginia in terms of religious service attendance and education, but neither of those crosstabs are further divided along ethnic lines. Don't know when we should start expecting Maryland 4th results, but along with delegate counts that is the only drama left tonight.
Update: Commenter mattw has a cool chart that projects a 54-29 delegate count from Virginia as of 9:05 p.m. eastern. the number 62.5% is particularly crucial in most congressional districts, but 70% is crucial in CDs 4, 7 and 10. Use this chart for further reference on how delegates are apportioned by at the congressional district level.
Update 8: Obama takes the lead in CNN's delegate count, 1,170 to 1,168. That lead will increase throughout the evening.
Update 7--McCain wins Virginia: Darn. Still, it is clear he does not have the support of a large portion of Republicans, from Paul supporters to Dobson / Huckabee supporters to Rush Limbaugh. A fractured Republican base will be a serious problem for him.I feel confident that Democrats will start to exert significant polling leads on McCain. Also, I will stop updating the Republican results in Virginia.
The official winner of the Athens primary won't be made public until later this week, but unofficially I heard that Obama won by a comfortable margin. The global tally of expatriate Democrats in 33 countries will be announced on Feb. 21.
Lots of delays tonight, apparently.
Update 5--Virginia GOP pulling a Washington GOP? Well, it seems that the counting has stopped in the Virginia Republican primary for about 30 minutes now. Did they find it necessary to fix this one for McCain, too?
Update 4--Obama Wins D.C.: To no one's surprise, Obama is projected as the winner of the D.C. primary by MSNBC. Without an exit poll, CNN cannot project.
Update 2--Huckabee to win Virginia?: The exit polls are beginning to shift, as per usual. The biggest change is that the Republican exit polls now project Huckabee ahead by about 1%. Hahahahahahaha. I also find it interesting that the more likely someone is to attend religious services, the more likely that person is to vote for Obama. Overall, the non-Christian vote is split, as Obama seems to do well among "others" while Clinton does well among seculars. Also, there does not appear to be an education gap in Virginia, as we have seen in other states.
Update--Obama Wins Virginia: CNN and MSNBC call Virginia for Obama. Wait for delegate counts, of course. The exit poll indicates something like 61%-39% for Obama. No call in the Republican race, but the exit poll looks pretty good for McCain.
Exit polls are supposedly showing blowouts in the Democratic contests. There could be immediate calls when the polls close.
Democratic Presidential Results
State
Reporting
Obama %
Clinton %
Delegates
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Virginia
77.8%
63.3%
35.5%
83
47
27
D.C.
0%
0%
0%
15
0
0
Maryland
9:30 p.m.
--
--
70
0
0
Maryland 4th Results 0% Reporting polls close at 8 p.m. 9:30 pm. eastern
Edwards: --
Wynn: --
All polls were conducted starting on January 23rd or later after John Edwards left the campaign:
Democratic Nomination At A Glance
State
Date
Polls
Obama
Clinton
P. Delegates
P. Delegates
Jun 7
32
1,019
937
3,253 / 3,566
Democrats Abroad
Feb 12
0
--
--
7
D.C.
Feb 12
1
63.0%
27.0%
15
Maryland
Feb 12
6
54.2%
34.0%
70
Virginia
Feb 12
6
54.5%
36.8%
83
Hawaii
Feb 19
0
--
--
20
Wisconsin
Feb 19
2
45.5%
44.5%
74
Ohio
Mar 04
1
39.0%
56.0%
141
Rhode Island
Mar 04
1
28.0%
36.0%
21
Texas
Mar 04
1
38.0%
48.0%
193
Vermont
Mar 04
0
--
--
15
The strategy for Clinton here seems obvious: use Wisconsin to set up March 4th. The problem, just as obviously, is that Obama's wins over the weekend and (probably) tonight could flip Wisconsin, and then flip March 4th. If that happens, the campaign might end before the Pennsylvania Interval. If not, then the fights over super delegates and Michigan / Florida will continue, and we definitely slog on to Pennsylvania on April 22nd (with stops in Wyoming on March 8th and Mississippi on March 11th, both very solid Obama states).
Also, I should not that I am seeing conflicting reports on the projected pledged delegate totals from Florida, a delegation that I believe the DNC credentials committee should, and will, seat. An earlier projection from wikipedia showed Clinton 95, Obama 63, and Edwards 27. A new projection shows Clinton 105, Obama 67, Edwards 13. I honestly don't know which one is correct. Any help on this matter would be appreciated in the comments.
On the eve of "Potomac Tuesday," here is the polling situation in D.C., Maryland and Virginia:
Democrats Abroad (7 pledged delegates): No polls on this campaign, and voting has been underway since February 5th. Early voting from some areas, such as Spain and Indonesia, has been favorable to Obama.
Maryland (70 pledged delegates): Obama 54.2%--34.0% Clinton, across six polls.
Virginia (83 pledged delegates): Obama 54.5%--36.8% Clinton, across six polls.
The current pledged delegate count stands at Obama 1,019, Clinton 937. A good number to watch for tomorrow night will be if Obama can move his pledged delegate advantage to 106 or higher, which would give him the lead even if the best case Michigan and Florida scenarios for Clinton are included in the totals.
Update: I just received an email from Constituent Dynamics. According to their polling, Obama will receive 100 pledged delegates in DC, MD and VA tomorrow, while Clinton will receive 68. Cross tabs of their polls for tomorrow can be viewed here (28 page PDF).
Are we getting ready to vote again already? Really? Man, this never ends. Super Tuesday counting is expected to end today, so I guess we will be receiving new delegate totals every day from now through Wednesday, inclusive.
There has been very little polling for the numerous contests to take place over the next five days, but here is what little post-Iowa information we have:
Washington caucuses, February 9th. Starts at 4 p.m. eastern: Obama 53%--40% Clinton. Survey USA, 2.2-2/3. 78 pledged delegates are up for grabs, and both candidates are on the air and campaigning on the ground in Washington. With a caucus and a double-digit lead in the polls, Obama is heavily favored here.
Louisiana primary, February 9th. Polls close at 9 p.m. eastern: No polls to report, ever. What polls there are wouldn't be of any use anyway, as we saw in the primary challenge against William Jefferson in late 2006. I can report that there are 56 pledged delegates at stake, and that Jesse Jackson won here in 1988. Both candidates are campaigning on the ground and over the airwaves. Obama is once again favored. Polls close at 9 p.m. eastern.
Nebraska caucuses, February 9th, ends at 9:30 p.m.: Once again, no polls to report, ever. We will probably see results trickling in from Nebraska all day tomorrow, since the caucuses start as early as 11:00 a.m. eastern in some places, and end as late as 9:30 p.m. in others. Obama has dominated caucuses in Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota and North Dakota. He also won a little caucus that was held in Iowa five weeks ago. This is big time Obama territory, and Clinton is not even visiting the state. I expect another 2-1 Obama victory in pledged caucus delegates from here.
Virgin Islands, convention, February 9th: Beats me how the three pledged delegates will break. Expect either 2-1 Obama or 2-1 Clinton. Then again, as telephasic points out in the comments, it will probably go 2-1 Obama, given that the island is 76% African-American.
Maine caucuses, February 10th, starts as early as 1 p.m. eastern: There hasn't poll a from here since April, when Clinton led 39%-22%. Of course, Clinton led everywhere back then, so who knows. No clear favorite, with 24 pledged delegates at stake. This is probably Clinton's best chance for a win this week.
Democrats Abroad, February 12th, already underway: The balloting for Democrats Abroad ends on February 12th, and we should know the results before any other polls close on Tuesday. Again, I wouldn't presume to guess how the seven pledged delegates at stake will divide up.
Maryland primary, February 12th: The only recent poll from Maryland, taken January 6th through January 9th, showed Obama well ahead, 39%-26%. 70 pledged delegates are at stake here, and Obama is favored.
D.C. primary, February 12th: No polls from D.C., but Obama did win the caucuses 519 to 271. I'll take that as a sign that Obama is heavily favored in this contest where 15 pledged delegates are at stake.
Virginia primary, February 12th: This is starting to sound like a broken record, but Obama is also heavily favored in Virginia. A newly released poll from Insider Advantage shows Obama ahead 52%-37%, and a Survey USA poll from January showed Obama ahead 59%--37%. Clinton is campaigning here, but this certainly looks like all Obama. 83 pledged delegates are at stake
Obviously, Obama looks really good over the next five days, where 360 pledged delegates are at stake, total. The goal for Clinton, I think, is to limit the damage by winning a state or two (possibly Maine or Virginia?), and keeping Obama's pledged delegate lead under 100, thus giving her the perception of an "overall" delegate lead. Currently, my latest pledged delegate count is Obama 896, Clinton 878, with 18 delegates still outstanding form Super Tuesday. In order to take a pledged delegate lead of 100 or more, Obama needs 230 of the 378 pledged delegates floating around between now and Tuesday. Unless he scores a 2-1 blowout in Washington, I doubt he will win quite that many. Still, when Obama's delegate total, even with super delegates included, becomes higher than Clinton's after February 19th, I wonder if news outlets will start to pay attention to the super delegate issue.
The U.S. Senate failed to pass a bill Tuesday giving the District of Columbia a full vote in the House of Representatives. The bill would also have given an extra Congressional seat to Utah.
The 57-42 procedural vote failed to break a threatened filibuster from opponents who believe the measure to be unconstitutional. The Senate cloture vote represents the closest that voting rights proponents have come to success in decades of struggle.
Before the vote, supporters said that failure would likely doom voting-rights legislation for this year.
It will take at least three more Democratic Senators not from Utah or Maine in order for D.C. to earn one of our most basic rights: representation in Congress. You can see the roll call vote here. The Utah Senators defected, because Utah was promised an extra seat in the House as part of the deal.
I have two other thoughts on this bill. One, it is truly disgusting that John Warner of Virginia voting against D.C. voting rights, considering that many of his constituents work in D.C. Seriously, how messed up is that? Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out, John.
Second, if Republicans are ever mesmerized as to why they do so poorly with the African-American vote, here is a prime example. An all-Republican minority of 42 just filibustered to prevent a overwhelmingly poor, African-American city from having representation in the United States Congress. Apart from FEMA's response to Katrina, could they make it any clearer that they do not stand up for African-Americans? Denying D.C. voting rights is a blatant, racist, right-wing attempt to cling to power. It is undemocratic and un-American for Republicans to block this bill. Truly disgusting.
