I think we all need to assume the primary contest is going to the convention, and make plans accordingly. We don't yet know how the MI/FL drama will play out, or whether Obama can pull an upset in PA, or whether uncommitted superdelegates start moving in bigger numbers for one reason or another. If any, or some, of those factors played out in a way that benefits Obama, we could be looking at any easier endgame. But everything about this primary has moved in a way to make it complicated, and I think it is very likely that we're moving right down to the last delegate, hand-to-hand combat fight right down to the end. There are certainly other scenarios that could play out, but I think it serves all our interests to assume this lasts right down to the convention.
Even if you disagree, go along with me on this for a moment. If that is the case, what do all of us who care about the Democrat beating McCain do? It doesn't seem like it matters if you are an Obama person, a Hillary person, or still undecided/ambivalent. Wherever you come down, what steps should we be doing now to win the fall campaigns?
I have some ideas on this, but I'm mostly opening this up because I think it's something we all ought to be discussing. In terms of the ideas I have, I'll write more about them in future posts. It's clear that we all ought to be thinking about how to define McCain, as a lot of us are already beginning to work on. It's clear to me that whatever side we are on, we ought to be encouraging folks to dial back on the rhetoric about whoever is on the other side. It's clear that we ought to be working together now, with the DNC and others, to be building our field operations for the fall. What else?
Update: I am heading out of town now, but will get back to some of the more interesting comments below over the weekend.
Obama moves above 50%, but Clinton is still well within range should she perform well in Wisconsin and on March 4th. Notes on the table in the extended entry.
Mason-Dixon and Zogby also have polls that are partially post-Iowa, both of which show Obama ahead in the post-Iowa data. Obama is clearly ahead in New Hampshire right now. With only two days left and the momentum overwhelmingly on his side in the state, it is very, very hard to see how he doesn't win New Hampshire.
For a long time, I have argued that Obama is poised to sweep to the nomination in the event that he sweeps Iowa and New Hampshire. However, now I am not so sure. In a development that has flown under the radar, it now seems to me that, as long as Clinton wins Florida and California, she will be ahead in delegates after February 5th no matter what happens in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. There are three basic reasons for this:
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